UIC Flames at Saint Mary's Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 10:00 PM ETUniversity Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's

#110UICUIC

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UIC and Saint Mary's
UIC	This season	SMC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 74–68 · win probability SMC 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

UIC 2, SMC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SMCBig

Three-pointers

UIC hits 31.6% and allows 33.4%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 32.8% and 36.4% of their shots

SMCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UIC 36.3%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: UIC 68.0%, SMC 76.1%

SMCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UIC 49.8 and allows 50.5; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8

UICSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UIC 17.6%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: UIC 19.7%, SMC 15.1%

SMCSmall

UIC offense vs SMC defense

Offense 117th of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UIC has played the 161st-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SMCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UIC 36.2, SMC 35.5. Allowed: UIC 33.9, SMC 25.7

SMCSmall

Home court

SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, UIC 0-0 away

UICSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UIC 60%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: UIC 4, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UIC plays 68.1 a game (227th fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points

Even

SMC offense vs UIC defense

Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 106th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SMC -5.9	—
Total	—	141.4	—
Projected score	—	UIC 67.8 · SMC 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -3.4	—
1H total	66.2	—
1H projected score	UIC 31.4 · SMC 34.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UIC LWWLL	18-15	55%	8-8	—
SMC WWWLL	19-13	59%	12-4	—

Venue/role: UIC away; SMC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UIC UOUOO	16-17	48%	17-16
SMC OUUUU	14-18	44%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UIC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SMC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UIC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs CHST	W67–63LU
Nov 22	vs M-OH	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs RICE	No recent meeting

Saint Mary's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs PRST	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs SLU	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs UCLA	L56–72LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UIC

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W L W L W L L L L L L L L W W W W W W W W L L W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1555%

W W L W L L L L W L L W L W W W W W W L W L L W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O O U U O U O U U U U O O U O O U U U O U U U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDETM	W 91-71	-9.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 7	@ORST	L 73-76	+6.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 15	@CHST	W 67-63	-9.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsHPU	L 80-90	+10.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsUSI	W 84-73	-11.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@RMU	L 74-88	-1.5	L −15.5	151.5	O 162
Dec 3	vsUAPB	L 62-63	-16.5	L −17.5	163.5	U 125
Dec 7	@YALE	L 66-80	+12.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 146
Dec 13	@BEL	L 84-87	+12.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 171
Dec 17	vsUNI	L 54-60	+5.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 114
Dec 21	@CLT	L 76-88	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 164
Jan 1	vsMUR	L 77-81	+5.5	W +1.5	159.5	U 158
Jan 4	@VAL	L 59-66	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 125
Jan 7	vsSIU	W 70-57	+1.5	W +14.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 10	@ILST	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 13	@UNI	W 69-61	+6.5	W +14.5	128.5	O 130
Jan 17	vsDRKE	W 74-67	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 20	vsEVAN	W 76-49	-8.5	W +18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 24	@BRAD	W 85-70	+7.5	W +22.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 27	vsINST	W 76-74	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	@SIU	W 68-66	+3.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 3	@MUR	L 74-81	+6.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 6	vsBEL	L 62-68	+1.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 130
Feb 12	@DRKE	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	vsILST	W 83-56	+1.5	W +28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	@EVAN	W 84-46	-8.5	W +29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsVAL	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 138
Feb 24	vsBRAD	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 179
Mar 1	@INST	L 63-79	-3.5	L −19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 6	vsMUR	W 92-79	-1.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 171
Mar 7	vsDRKE	W 72-51	-4.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 123
Mar 8	vsUNI	L 69-84	+2.5	L −12.5	125.5	O 153
Mar 18	@CAL	L 73-91	+6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DETM

W 91-71

+10.5

ORST

L 73-76

+3.5

CHST

W 67-63

−5.5

HPU

L 80-90

+0.5

USI

W 84-73

−0.5

RMU

L 74-88

−15.5

UAPB

L 62-63

−17.5

YALE

L 66-80

−1.5

BEL

L 84-87

+9.5

UNI

L 54-60

−0.5

CLT

L 76-88

−10.5

MUR

L 77-81

+1.5

VAL

L 59-66

−4.5

SIU

W 70-57

+14.5

ILST

W 63-59

+14.5

UNI

W 69-61

+14.5

DRKE

W 74-67

+1.5

EVAN

W 76-49

+18.5

BRAD

W 85-70

+22.5

INST

W 76-74

−3.5

SIU

W 68-66

+5.5

MUR

L 74-81

−0.5

BEL

L 62-68

−4.5

DRKE

W 80-70

+8.5

ILST

W 83-56

+28.5

EVAN

W 84-46

+29.5

VAL

L 67-71

−11.5

BRAD

W 93-86

+5.5

INST

L 63-79

−19.5

MUR

W 92-79

+11.5

DRKE

W 72-51

+16.5

UNI

L 69-84

−12.5

CAL

L 73-91

−11.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DETM

W 91-71

+19.5

ORST

L 73-76

+2.5

CHST

W 67-63

−26.5

HPU

L 80-90

+11.5

USI

W 84-73

+3.5

RMU

L 74-88

+10.5

UAPB

L 62-63

−38.5

YALE

L 66-80

−2.5

BEL

L 84-87

+16.5

UNI

L 54-60

−19.5

CLT

L 76-88

+26.5

MUR

L 77-81

−1.5

VAL

L 59-66

−19.5

SIU

W 70-57

−19.5

ILST

W 63-59

−19.5

UNI

W 69-61

+1.5

DRKE

W 74-67

+1.5

EVAN

W 76-49

−14.5

BRAD

W 85-70

+10.5

INST

W 76-74

+2.5

SIU

W 68-66

−8.5

MUR

L 74-81

−2.5

BEL

L 62-68

−21.5

DRKE

W 80-70

+3.5

ILST

W 83-56

−1.5

EVAN

W 84-46

−10.5

VAL

L 67-71

−0.5

BRAD

W 93-86

+37.5

INST

L 63-79

−2.5

MUR

W 92-79

+20.5

DRKE

W 72-51

−21.5

UNI

L 69-84

+27.5

CAL

L 73-91

+13.5

over 16under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Mary's

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	@PEPP	W 72-45	-19.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	vsPORT	W 78-57	-18.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsSEA	W 93-76	-11.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsWSU	W 88-82	-15.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 13	@SF	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 17	@SCU	L 54-62	+1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 21	vsORST	W 81-51	-19.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 24	@PORT	W 75-69	-14.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 31	@GONZ	L 65-73	+8.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUSD	W 87-60	-20.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	vsSF	W 79-54	-11.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsPEPP	W 88-60	-24.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	@PAC	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@SEA	W 72-70	-9.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	@WSU	W 83-67	-8.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	vsSCU	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsGONZ	W 70-59	+2.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsSCU	L 71-76	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsTA&M	L 50-63	-2.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

PEPP

W 72-45

+7.5

PORT

W 78-57

+2.5

SEA

W 93-76

+5.5

WSU

W 88-82

−9.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−6.5

ORST

W 81-51

+10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−8.5

GONZ

L 65-73

+0.5

USD

W 87-60

+6.5

W 79-54

+13.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

+3.5

SEA

W 72-70

−7.5

WSU

W 83-67

+7.5

SCU

W 86-67

+13.5

GONZ

W 70-59

+13.5

SCU

L 71-76

−9.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

PEPP

W 72-45

−24.5

PORT

W 78-57

−11.5

SEA

W 93-76

+29.5

WSU

W 88-82

+26.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−36.5

ORST

W 81-51

−10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−0.5

GONZ

L 65-73

−6.5

USD

W 87-60

−1.5

W 79-54

−9.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

−2.5

SEA

W 72-70

+8.5

WSU

W 83-67

+0.5

SCU

W 86-67

−0.5

GONZ

W 70-59

−14.5

SCU

L 71-76

−3.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−36.5

over 14under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UIC has the better starters

Position by position: UIC 1, Saint Mary's 0, even 4

UICBetterSaint Mary's

G B. Gealer TR10.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 79

Even

G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G A. Johnson11 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 55

Even

G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53

G A. Thomas TR11.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 69

UICBig

G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21

G M. Lowery7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59

Even

F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73

G R. Washington8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 77

No call

F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

UICBetterSaint Mary's

UIC offense117th of 366 · -2.6

SMCSmall

SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5

UIC defense106th of 366 · -1.0

Even

SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5

Backcourt+2.1 · 5 players

UICSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Bench+0.5 · 4 players

UICSmall

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUIC betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UIC

Guards

B. Gealer30 min · TRA. Johnson29 minA. Thomas28 min · TRM. Lowery26 minR. Washington23 minA. Henderson21 min

Forwards

J. Nathaniel20 minL. Scroggins17 min · TRN. BarrantesNewD. HudsonNewD. ShawNew

Saint Mary's

Guards

J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew

Forwards

T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew

Centers

S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UIC73.9 #196

SMC76.8 #125

Points per possession

UIC1.09 #171

SMC1.17 #39

Pace (possessions)

UIC68.1 #227

SMC66.2 #305

Shooting

Effective FG%

UIC49.8 #245

SMC52.8 #109

3-point %

UIC31.6 #300

SMC38.7 #7

3-point attempt rate

UIC32.8 #319

SMC36.4 #242

Free throw rate

UIC36.2 #145

SMC35.5 #162

Possessions

Turnover rate

UIC17.6 #247

SMC16.9 #201

Offensive rebound rate

UIC36.3 #22

SMC37.5 #12

Assists per game

UIC14.1 #143

SMC15.1 #82

Defense

Points allowed

UIC71.2 #81

SMC65.2 #7

Points allowed per possession

UIC1.05 #83

SMC0.98 #14

Opponent effective FG%

UIC50.5 #125

SMC46.8 #20

Opponent 3-point %

UIC33.4 #147

SMC31.4 #40

Turnovers forced

UIC19.7 #30

SMC15.1 #274

Defensive rebound rate

UIC68.0 #255

SMC76.1 #4

Steals per game

UIC7.6 #70

SMC5.5 #302

Blocks per game

UIC3.6 #126

SMC3.6 #129

UIC		SMC
Scoring
73.9 #196	Points per game	76.8 #125
1.09 #171	Points per possession	1.17 #39
68.1 #227	Pace (possessions)	66.2 #305
Shooting
49.8 #245	Effective FG%	52.8 #109
31.6 #300	3-point %	38.7 #7
32.8 #319	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #242
36.2 #145	Free throw rate	35.5 #162
Possessions
17.6 #247	Turnover rate	16.9 #201
36.3 #22	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #12
14.1 #143	Assists per game	15.1 #82
Defense
71.2 #81	Points allowed	65.2 #7
1.05 #83	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #14
50.5 #125	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #20
33.4 #147	Opponent 3-point %	31.4 #40
19.7 #30	Turnovers forced	15.1 #274
68.0 #255	Defensive rebound rate	76.1 #4
7.6 #70	Steals per game	5.5 #302
3.6 #126	Blocks per game	3.6 #129

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UIC

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ California73–91
Lvs Northern Iowa69–84
Wvs Drake72–51
Wvs Murray St92–79
L@ Indiana St63–79

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M50–63
Lvs Santa Clara71–76
Wvs Gonzaga70–59
Wvs Santa Clara86–67
W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

UIC Flames at Saint Mary's Gaels

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UIC

Saint Mary's

UIC has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UIC

Saint Mary's