1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. UAPB @ CBU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at California Baptist Lancers

Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center · at CA Baptist
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#203CBUCA Baptist
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonCBU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CBU 82–66 · win probability CBU 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CBU has more of the edges

UAPB 0, CBU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CBUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, CBU 37.5%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, CBU 72.8%
CBUBig
UAPB offense vs CBU defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings
CBUBig
CBU offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, CBU the 202nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), CBU 68.3 (217th). Faster games mean more points
CBUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3
CBUSmall
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%. Threes are 37.1% and 32.0% of their shots
CBUSmall
Home court
CBU at home. This season: CBU 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, CBU 18.0%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, CBU 16.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, CBU 35.9. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, CBU 36.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, CBU 18%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, CBU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CBU -16.6—
Total—148.2—
Projected score—UAPB 65.8 · CBU 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCBU -9.7—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreUAPB 29.8 · CBU 39.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

CA Baptist has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, CA Baptist 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterCA Baptist
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
CBUBig
G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
AR-Pine BluffBetterCA Baptist
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
CBUBig
CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
CBUSmall
CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
CBUSmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterCBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
CA Baptist
Guards
E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew
Forwards
R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew
Centers
M. KovacNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBCBU
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game72.7 #230
1.04 #277Points per possession1.07 #209
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)68.3 #217
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%48.3 #308
33.6 #1903-point %33.4 #200
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate32.0 #330
38.4 #91Free throw rate35.9 #154
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate18.0 #270
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate37.5 #13
14.1 #136Assists per game10.2 #355
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed67.6 #28
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession0.99 #18
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%46.3 #16
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %29.5 #5
16.4 #192Turnovers forced16.9 #159
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate72.8 #41
6.8 #142Steals per game5.5 #296
2.9 #244Blocks per game2.9 #253
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kansas60–68
  • Wvs Utah Valley63–61
  • Wvs Utah Tech86–72
  • W@ Southern Utah82–75
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.