Kansas City Roos at Jacksonville Dolphins: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETSwisher Gymnasium · at Jacksonville

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kansas City and Jacksonville
KC	This season	JAX
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JAX 78–68 · win probability JAX 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JAX has more of the edges

KC 1, JAX 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JAXBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KC 26.4%, JAX 31.7%. Defensive: KC 64.1%, JAX 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: KC plays 71.8 a game (45th fastest), JAX 65.7 (322nd). Faster games mean more points

JAXBig

KC offense vs JAX defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 210th, on the model’s ratings

JAXSmall

JAX offense vs KC defense

Offense 232nd of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

KCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: KC 29.2, JAX 32.8. Allowed: KC 31.4, JAX 42.7

JAXSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: KC 45.8 and allows 56.3; JAX 50.0 and allows 54.8

JAXSmall

Three-pointers

KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%; JAX hits 31.8% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 36.8% and 37.4% of their shots

JAXSmall

Home court

JAX at home. This season: JAX 0-0 at home, KC 0-0 away

JAXSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KC 0%, JAX 27%. Transfers in: KC 5, JAX 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KC 18.2%, JAX 17.2%. Forced: KC 16.4%, JAX 15.0%

Context

Schedule so far

KC has played the 235th-hardest schedule, JAX the 247th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JAX -10.6	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	KC 67.8 · JAX 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JAX -6.2	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	KC 31.1 · JAX 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	4-12	—
JAX WWLWL	12-18	40%	4-6	—

Venue/role: KC away; JAX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27
JAX OUOUO	12-18	40%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%
JAX	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs FAMU	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs GMU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ IONA	L91–105LO

Jacksonville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ UGA	L56–102LO
Nov 19	vs LR	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs CARK	L60–62WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jacksonville

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-18

40% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L W L W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L W L W L L L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1840%

O U U U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O O U U O O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MIA	L 69-86	+18.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 11	@HPU	L 64-85	+17.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 15	@VMI	W 69-67	-1.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 18	@GMU	L 57-79	+16.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsBCU	W 69-64	+3.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsPAC	L 53-68	+2.5	L −12.5	135.5	U 121
Dec 2	vsFAMU	W 85-82	-10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 6	@FIU	L 65-88	+5.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 153
Dec 14	@TA&M	L 75-112	+26.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 187
Dec 17	@FAMU	L 65-72	-3.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 22	@FSU	L 63-87	+23.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 150
Jan 1	@LIP	L 57-76	+12.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 3	@APSU	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsQUC	L 51-77	+4.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsWGA	W 75-43	-1.5	W +30.5	141.5	U 118
Jan 15	@CARK	L 60-62	+7.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 122
Jan 17	@UNA	W 90-68	+1.5	W +23.5	133.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsBELL	L 70-77	-4.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 147
Jan 24	vsEKU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 29	vsLIP	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsFGCU	L 49-68	-1.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 117
Feb 5	@QUC	L 84-93	+8.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	@WGA	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 160
Feb 11	@STET	L 62-67	-2.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsUNF	W 63-56	-7.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 119
Feb 18	@FGCU	L 84-86	+6.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 170
Feb 21	vsAPSU	L 61-65	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 126
Feb 26	vsSTET	W 89-85	-7.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 174
Feb 28	@UNF	W 85-61	-1.5	W +22.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 4	vsBELL	L 79-82	+1.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+1.5

HPU

L 64-85

−3.5

VMI

W 69-67

+0.5

GMU

L 57-79

−5.5

BCU

W 69-64

+8.5

PAC

L 53-68

−12.5

FAMU

W 85-82

−7.5

FIU

L 65-88

−17.5

TA&M

L 75-112

−10.5

FAMU

L 65-72

−10.5

FSU

L 63-87

−0.5

LIP

L 57-76

−6.5

APSU

L 68-71

+7.5

QUC

L 51-77

−21.5

WGA

W 75-43

+30.5

CARK

L 60-62

+5.5

UNA

W 90-68

+23.5

BELL

L 70-77

−11.5

EKU

W 81-76

+3.5

LIP

W 70-65

+8.5

FGCU

L 49-68

−20.5

QUC

L 84-93

−0.5

WGA

L 73-87

−15.5

STET

L 62-67

−7.5

UNF

W 63-56

−0.5

FGCU

L 84-86

+4.5

APSU

L 61-65

+2.5

STET

W 89-85

−3.5

UNF

W 85-61

+22.5

BELL

L 79-82

−1.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+12.5

HPU

L 64-85

−7.5

VMI

W 69-67

−15.5

GMU

L 57-79

−0.5

BCU

W 69-64

−10.5

PAC

L 53-68

−14.5

FAMU

W 85-82

+28.5

FIU

L 65-88

+7.5

TA&M

L 75-112

+39.5

FAMU

L 65-72

−2.5

FSU

L 63-87

−9.5

LIP

L 57-76

−14.5

APSU

L 68-71

−1.5

QUC

L 51-77

−26.5

WGA

W 75-43

−23.5

CARK

L 60-62

−14.5

UNA

W 90-68

+24.5

BELL

L 70-77

+8.5

EKU

W 81-76

+14.5

LIP

W 70-65

−7.5

FGCU

L 49-68

−19.5

QUC

L 84-93

+30.5

WGA

L 73-87

+21.5

STET

L 62-67

−9.5

UNF

W 63-56

−34.5

FGCU

L 84-86

+33.5

APSU

L 61-65

−16.5

STET

W 89-85

+35.5

UNF

W 85-61

−5.5

BELL

L 79-82

+16.5

over 12under 18avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jacksonville has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas City 0, Jacksonville 4, even 1

Kansas CityBetterJacksonville

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

JAXSmall

G C. Williams TR16.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 65

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

JAXSmall

G J. Phillips TR15.5 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 59

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

JAXBig

G H. Wood11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Sterck6.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

JAXSmall

F J. Morrow TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 58

Kansas CityBetterJacksonville

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

JAXSmall

JAX defense210th of 366 · -5.4

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

JAXSmall

JAX offense232nd of 366 · -7.1

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

JAXSmall

Backcourt-1.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

JAXSmall

Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestKC betterJAX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

Jacksonville

Guards

C. Williams33 min · TRJ. Phillips31 min · TRH. Wood28 minE. Sterck25 minR. Loux1 minL. BuckinghamNew

Forwards

J. Morrow21 min · TRR. Stirling15 min · TRN. Turner6 min · TRJ. Newell2 min · TR

Centers

S. MbingazoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KC67.0 #334

JAX69.5 #293

Points per possession

KC0.93 #361

JAX1.06 #237

Pace (possessions)

KC71.8 #45

JAX65.7 #322

Shooting

Effective FG%

KC45.8 #352

JAX50.0 #232

3-point %

KC28.4 #360

JAX31.8 #289

3-point attempt rate

KC36.8 #235

JAX37.4 #223

Free throw rate

KC29.2 #330

JAX32.8 #242

Possessions

Turnover rate

KC18.2 #282

JAX17.2 #222

Offensive rebound rate

KC26.4 #314

JAX31.7 #137

Assists per game

KC11.3 #324

JAX11.1 #335

Defense

Points allowed

KC84.8 #359

JAX75.2 #194

Points allowed per possession

KC1.18 #348

JAX1.14 #313

Opponent effective FG%

KC56.3 #348

JAX54.8 #325

Opponent 3-point %

KC37.5 #350

JAX36.3 #318

Turnovers forced

KC16.4 #193

JAX15.0 #290

Defensive rebound rate

KC64.1 #353

JAX70.9 #115

Steals per game

KC6.4 #192

JAX6.3 #206

Blocks per game

KC3.1 #195

JAX2.8 #261

KC		JAX
Scoring
67.0 #334	Points per game	69.5 #293
0.93 #361	Points per possession	1.06 #237
71.8 #45	Pace (possessions)	65.7 #322
Shooting
45.8 #352	Effective FG%	50.0 #232
28.4 #360	3-point %	31.8 #289
36.8 #235	3-point attempt rate	37.4 #223
29.2 #330	Free throw rate	32.8 #242
Possessions
18.2 #282	Turnover rate	17.2 #222
26.4 #314	Offensive rebound rate	31.7 #137
11.3 #324	Assists per game	11.1 #335
Defense
84.8 #359	Points allowed	75.2 #194
1.18 #348	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #313
56.3 #348	Opponent effective FG%	54.8 #325
37.5 #350	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #318
16.4 #193	Turnovers forced	15.0 #290
64.1 #353	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #115
6.4 #192	Steals per game	6.3 #206
3.1 #195	Blocks per game	2.8 #261

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

Jacksonville

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bellarmine79–82
W@ North Florida85–61
Wvs Stetson89–85
Lvs Austin Peay61–65
L@ FGCU84–86

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City Roos at Jacksonville Dolphins

What could decide it: JAX has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas City

Jacksonville

Jacksonville has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kansas City

Jacksonville