Norfolk State Spartans at William & Mary Tribe: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETKaplan Arena · at William & Mary

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Norfolk St and William & Mary
NORF	This season	W&M
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects W&M 82–70 · win probability W&M 85%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: W&M has more of the edges

NORF 2, W&M 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NORF has played the 343rd-hardest schedule, W&M the 171st. A record against a soft schedule means less

W&MBig

W&M offense vs NORF defense

Offense 160th of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

W&MSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7; W&M 54.3 and allows 51.9

NORFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NORF 32.5%, W&M 26.0%. Defensive: NORF 67.7%, W&M 68.5%

W&MSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NORF 43.5, W&M 44.0. Allowed: NORF 45.3, W&M 35.5

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: NORF plays 69.1 a game (172nd fastest), W&M 73.6 (14th). Faster games mean more points

W&MSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NORF 18.7%, W&M 16.6%. Forced: NORF 18.8%, W&M 18.9%

NORFSmall

Three-pointers

NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%; W&M hits 33.0% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 30.6% and 42.8% of their shots

W&MSmall

Home court

W&M at home. This season: W&M 0-0 at home, NORF 0-0 away

Even

NORF offense vs W&M defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 289th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NORF 8%, W&M 1%. Transfers in: NORF 4, W&M 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	W&M -11.7	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	NORF 70.3 · W&M 82

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	W&M -6.8	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	NORF 32.2 · W&M 39	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	8-7	—
W&M LLLWL	16-14	53%	6-5	—

Venue/role: NORF away; W&M home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17
W&M UOOUO	13-17	43%	18-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
W&M	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs ODU	L57–60WU
Nov 15	@ GAST	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ GT	No recent meeting

William & Mary

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ FAU	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ MICH	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs BGSU	W82–74WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NORF 3–2 W&MNORF leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · W&M has won the last 2 meetings · NORF 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	W&M 81 @ NORF 78	NORF +2.5	W&M W
Nov 12, 2024-25	NORF 73 @ W&M 84	W&M -2.5	W&M W
Nov 28, 2023-24	W&M 62 @ NORF 96	NORF -3.5	NORF W
Dec 10, 2022-23	NORF 67 @ W&M 53	W&M +1.5	NORF W
Nov 16, 2021-22	W&M 74 @ NORF 91	NORF -5	NORF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

William & Mary

30 games played

Straight up

18-12

60% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1260%

W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W W W W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O U U U O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsUTEP	W 74-63	-2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsACU	W 92-58	+1.5	W +35.5	147.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsODU	W 88-75	-8.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 2	@DUQ	W 83-79	+5.5	W +9.5	170.5	U 162
Dec 6	@GW	L 86-99	+13.5	W +0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 18	vsRAD	W 96-83	-8.5	W +4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsTOW	W 84-70	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	vsSTBK	W 76-57	-11.5	W +7.5	159.5	U 133
Jan 5	@COFC	L 79-88	+2.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 167
Jan 8	@MONM	L 70-81	-2.5	L −13.5	156.5	U 151
Jan 10	@DREX	L 58-64	-3.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	vsNCAT	W 97-89	-13.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 186
Jan 22	vsUNCW	W 77-70	-2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	vsHOF	W 89-82	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	@ELON	L 76-79	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsCAM	L 96-104	-8.5	L −16.5	168.5	O 200
Feb 5	@UNCW	W 85-78	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 7	@HAMP	L 74-77	-5.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 12	@NE	W 94-67	-5.5	W +21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 14	vsELON	L 78-81	-8.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 159
Feb 19	@CAM	L 83-84	-1.5	L −2.5	167.5	U 167
Feb 26	vsNE	W 84-77	-11.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@NCAT	W 91-88	-8.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 3	vsHAMP	W 94-85	-11.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsELON	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 134
Mar 8	vsHOF	L 61-92	+2.5	L −28.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 74-63

+8.5

ACU

W 92-58

+35.5

ODU

W 88-75

+4.5

DUQ

W 83-79

+9.5

L 86-99

+0.5

RAD

W 96-83

+4.5

TOW

W 84-70

+12.5

STBK

W 76-57

+7.5

COFC

L 79-88

−6.5

MONM

L 70-81

−13.5

DREX

L 58-64

−9.5

NCAT

W 97-89

−5.5

UNCW

W 77-70

+4.5

HOF

W 89-82

+3.5

ELON

L 76-79

−4.5

CAM

L 96-104

−16.5

UNCW

W 85-78

+11.5

HAMP

L 74-77

−8.5

W 94-67

+21.5

ELON

L 78-81

−11.5

CAM

L 83-84

−2.5

W 84-77

−4.5

NCAT

W 91-88

−5.5

HAMP

W 94-85

−2.5

ELON

W 72-62

+4.5

HOF

L 61-92

−28.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

UTEP

W 74-63

−22.5

ACU

W 92-58

+2.5

ODU

W 88-75

−0.5

DUQ

W 83-79

−8.5

L 86-99

+10.5

RAD

W 96-83

+8.5

TOW

W 84-70

−3.5

STBK

W 76-57

−26.5

COFC

L 79-88

+1.5

MONM

L 70-81

−5.5

DREX

L 58-64

−28.5

NCAT

W 97-89

+23.5

UNCW

W 77-70

−12.5

HOF

W 89-82

+13.5

ELON

L 76-79

−14.5

CAM

L 96-104

+31.5

UNCW

W 85-78

+3.5

HAMP

L 74-77

−1.5

W 94-67

−6.5

ELON

L 78-81

−6.5

CAM

L 83-84

−0.5

W 84-77

−3.5

NCAT

W 91-88

+15.5

HAMP

W 94-85

+15.5

ELON

W 72-62

−29.5

HOF

L 61-92

+0.5

over 13under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Norfolk St 1, William & Mary 1, even 3

Norfolk StBetterWilliam & Mary

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

Even

G J. Baldwin TR7.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 63

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

W&MBig

G J. McIntosh TR6.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

Even

G T. Blassingame TR3.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

No call

G N. Daniels TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

NORFBig

F S. Sivka TR2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15

Norfolk StBetterWilliam & Mary

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

Even

W&M defense289th of 366 · -7.2

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

W&MBig

W&M offense160th of 366 · -4.8

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

W&MBig

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestNORF betterW&M betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

William & Mary

Guards

J. Baldwin20 min · TRJ. McIntosh17 min · TRT. Blassingame17 min · TRN. Daniels10 min · TRZ. Clark9 min · TRJ. Forsythe4 min · TR

Forwards

S. Sivka11 min · TRB. CarterNewJ. RolandNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NORF71.6 #257

W&M81.5 #38

Points per possession

NORF1.04 #274

W&M1.11 #116

Pace (possessions)

NORF69.1 #172

W&M73.6 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

NORF49.3 #277

W&M54.3 #58

3-point %

NORF34.2 #157

W&M33.0 #233

3-point attempt rate

NORF30.6 #347

W&M42.8 #120

Free throw rate

NORF43.5 #13

W&M44.0 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

NORF18.7 #311

W&M16.6 #171

Offensive rebound rate

NORF32.5 #108

W&M26.0 #324

Assists per game

NORF11.3 #326

W&M17.4 #17

Defense

Points allowed

NORF74.7 #181

W&M78.9 #294

Points allowed per possession

NORF1.08 #160

W&M1.07 #126

Opponent effective FG%

NORF51.7 #196

W&M51.9 #205

Opponent 3-point %

NORF32.0 #61

W&M33.0 #126

Turnovers forced

NORF18.8 #58

W&M18.9 #52

Defensive rebound rate

NORF67.7 #270

W&M68.5 #229

Steals per game

NORF6.5 #180

W&M7.9 #47

Blocks per game

NORF2.8 #264

W&M3.8 #95

NORF		W&M
Scoring
71.6 #257	Points per game	81.5 #38
1.04 #274	Points per possession	1.11 #116
69.1 #172	Pace (possessions)	73.6 #14
Shooting
49.3 #277	Effective FG%	54.3 #58
34.2 #157	3-point %	33.0 #233
30.6 #347	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #120
43.5 #13	Free throw rate	44.0 #9
Possessions
18.7 #311	Turnover rate	16.6 #171
32.5 #108	Offensive rebound rate	26.0 #324
11.3 #326	Assists per game	17.4 #17
Defense
74.7 #181	Points allowed	78.9 #294
1.08 #160	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #126
51.7 #196	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #205
32.0 #61	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #126
18.8 #58	Turnovers forced	18.9 #52
67.7 #270	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #229
6.5 #180	Steals per game	7.9 #47
2.8 #264	Blocks per game	3.8 #95

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

William & Mary

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra61–92
Wvs Elon72–62
Wvs Hampton94–85
W@ NC A&T91–88
Wvs Northeastern84–77

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk State Spartans at William & Mary Tribe

What could decide it: W&M has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Norfolk St

William & Mary

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Norfolk St

William & Mary