1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. FAU @ WRST
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Florida Atlantic Owls at Wright State Raiders

Nutter Center · at Wright St
#109FAUFAU
@
#180WRSTWright St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FAUThis seasonWRST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAU 79–76 · win probability FAU 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WRST has more of the edges

FAU 1, WRST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
FAU has played the 101st-hardest schedule, WRST the 264th. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAUBig
FAU offense vs WRST defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings
WRSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FAU 33.3, WRST 37.4. Allowed: FAU 36.2, WRST 33.3
WRSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FAU 17.6%, WRST 16.1%. Forced: FAU 15.5%, WRST 16.6%
WRSTSmall
Three-pointers
FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%; WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 38.2% and 34.2% of their shots
WRSTSmall
Home court
WRST at home. This season: WRST 0-0 at home, FAU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: FAU plays 71.1 a game (71st fastest), WRST 69.1 (171st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5; WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FAU 17%, WRST 32%. Transfers in: FAU 5, WRST 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
WRST offense vs FAU defense
Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FAU 31.6%, WRST 32.8%. Defensive: FAU 71.7%, WRST 70.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAU -2.7—
Total—155.4—
Projected score—FAU 79 · WRST 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAU -1.7—
1H total72.6—
1H projected scoreFAU 37.2 · WRST 35.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

FAU has the better starters

Position by position: FAU 3, Wright St 2, even 0
FAUBetterWright St
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
FAUSmall
G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
FAUBig
G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
FAUBig
G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
WRSTBig
G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
WRSTSmall
F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67
FAUBetterWright St
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
FAUBig
WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
Even
WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
FAUBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
WRSTSmall
Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestFAU betterWRST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
Wright St
Guards
C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew
Forwards
K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew
Centers
N. Djapa10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FAUWRST
Scoring
77.2 #111Points per game79.8 #72
1.09 #170Points per possession1.16 #54
71.1 #71Pace (possessions)69.1 #171
Shooting
52.2 #135Effective FG%54.3 #56
33.3 #2103-point %36.4 #44
38.2 #2083-point attempt rate34.2 #290
33.3 #231Free throw rate37.4 #120
Possessions
17.6 #246Turnover rate16.1 #149
31.6 #140Offensive rebound rate32.8 #91
13.0 #210Assists per game13.2 #199
Defense
75.3 #198Points allowed75.6 #206
1.06 #108Points allowed per possession1.09 #201
49.5 #81Opponent effective FG%52.4 #238
33.8 #169Opponent 3-point %34.3 #203
15.5 #252Turnovers forced16.6 #179
71.7 #78Defensive rebound rate70.6 #129
5.7 #272Steals per game7.1 #114
5.3 #11Blocks per game4.4 #47
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Virginia73–82
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
  • Wvs N Kentucky103–90
  • Wvs Cleveland St90–61
  • W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.