Rider Broncs at Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETPetersen Events Center · at Pitt

#74PITTPitt

LinePITT -27.5no move

Total141.5down 1 from 142.5

Season records: Rider and Pitt
RID	This season	PITT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PITT 85–58 · win probability PITT 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

PITT -27.5

no move since the open

Total

141.5

model 143.5 · Over by 2

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public on the spread

92% RID

85% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PITT has more of the edges

RID 0, PITT 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PITTBig

RID offense vs PITT defense

Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings

PITTBig

PITT offense vs RID defense

Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PITTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, PITT 71.9%

PITTBig

Three-pointers

RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 27.5% and 42.6% of their shots

PITTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4

PITTSmall

Home court

PITT at home. This season: PITT 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RID 30.1, PITT 30.4. Allowed: RID 32.5, PITT 30.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: RID 15.3%, PITT 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: RID 6, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenPITT -27.5

no move

NowPITT -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open142.5

▼ 1

Now141.5

Down 1 since the open

Moneyline

RID +4000 · PITT -30000

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened PITT -27.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -27.5 matches the line

model PITT -27.5 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

RID +27.5Spread

PITT -27.5

Bets

92%8%

Money

85%15%

Over 141.5TotalUnder 141.5

Bets

23%77%

Money

25%75%

RIDWinner

PITT

Bets

96%

Money

10%90%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	RID	PITT	Over	Under	RID	PITT
BetMGMMGM	-27.5-115	+27.5-105	141.5-115	141.5-105	+3300	-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-27.5-110	+27.5-110	142.5+100	142.5-120	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-27.5-121	+27.5-106	142.5-115	142.5-110	—	—
BetUSBetUS	-27.5-110	+27.5-110	142.5+100	142.5-120	—	—
BovadaBovada	-27.5-115	+27.5-105	141.5+100	141.5-120	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-27.5-110	+27.5-110	141.5-115	141.5-105	+5000	-100000
FanDuelFD	-26.5-110	+26.5-110	142.5-115	142.5-105	+4000	-30000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-27.5-106	+27.5-106	142.5+102	142.5-119	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	PITT -27.5	PITT -27.3	RID +0.2
Total	141.5	143.5	Over 2.0
Projected score	—	RID 58.1 · PITT 85.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PITT -16.1	—
1H total	67.2	—
1H projected score	RID 25.5 · PITT 41.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LLWLL	9-19	32%	6-10	9-17
PITT WWWWL	16-17	48%	9-9	7-6

Venue/role: RID away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID OOUUU	9-19	32%	3-25
PITT UOUUO	19-14	58%	13-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RID	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
PITT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rider

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs UNH	No recent meeting
Nov 8	@ BING	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ VILL	L48–72LU

Pitt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs BUF	No recent meeting
Nov 8	vs PSU	W80–46WU
Nov 13	@ BTLR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

28 games played

Straight up

3-25

11% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-19

32% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2511%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-1932%

U U O O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U O O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133
Dec 4	@MRMK	L 66-68	+9.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	@QUIN	L 58-72	+14.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 130
Dec 9	vsBUCK	L 38-51	+2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 16	@DEL	L 57-65	+8.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 22	@VCU	L 79-100	+30.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMAN	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsSIE	L 65-74	+8.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	@FAIR	L 62-68	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsMRST	L 49-71	+10.5	L −11.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 14	vsIONA	W 72-68	+7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 17	@SPU	L 58-69	+10.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 127
Jan 19	vsSHU	L 85-105	+4.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 190
Jan 24	@MSM	L 61-71	+9.5	L −0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@MAN	L 90-95	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	vsSPU	W 81-78	+7.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 5	@MRST	L 52-81	+14.5	L −14.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsMRMK	L 47-73	+8.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 13	vsMSM	L 55-65	+5.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 15	@SHU	L 75-86	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 20	vsCAN	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	vsNIA	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 129
Feb 27	@IONA	L 58-80	+11.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Mar 1	@SIE	L 61-76	+14.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

MRMK

L 66-68

+7.5

QUIN

L 58-72

+0.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−10.5

DEL

L 57-65

+0.5

VCU

L 79-100

+9.5

MAN

L 71-74

−0.5

SIE

L 65-74

−0.5

FAIR

L 62-68

+2.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

+11.5

SPU

L 58-69

−0.5

SHU

L 85-105

−15.5

MSM

L 61-71

−0.5

MAN

L 90-95

+0.5

SPU

W 81-78

+10.5

MRST

L 52-81

−14.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−4.5

SHU

L 75-86

−1.5

CAN

L 66-72

−7.5

NIA

W 67-62

+6.5

IONA

L 58-80

−10.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

MRMK

L 66-68

−4.5

QUIN

L 58-72

−17.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−46.5

DEL

L 57-65

−7.5

VCU

L 79-100

+33.5

MAN

L 71-74

−2.5

SIE

L 65-74

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-68

−15.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

−1.5

SPU

L 58-69

−7.5

SHU

L 85-105

+45.5

MSM

L 61-71

−7.5

MAN

L 90-95

+39.5

SPU

W 81-78

+22.5

MRST

L 52-81

−2.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−17.5

SHU

L 75-86

+14.5

CAN

L 66-72

+6.5

NIA

W 67-62

−2.5

IONA

L 58-80

−3.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

over 9under 19avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

W W W L W L L W L L L W W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158
Nov 28	vsOSU	W 67-66	+5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 2	vsTA&M	L 73-81	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsHOF	L 73-80	-8.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@VILL	L 61-79	+10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 17	vsBING	W 103-63	-24.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsPSU	W 80-46	+1.5	W +35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@MIA	L 69-76	+9.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 3	vsCLEM	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 10	vsSYR	L 72-83	-1.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@GT	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsLOU	L 59-100	+7.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 21	@BC	L 62-65	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsNCSU	L 72-81	+6.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsWAKE	W 80-76	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	@CLEM	L 52-63	+10.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 3	@UVA	L 47-67	+12.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSMU	L 67-86	+4.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsDUKE	L 54-70	+17.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@UNC	L 65-79	+11.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsND	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 25	@STAN	L 67-75	+8.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@CAL	W 72-56	+6.5	W +22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	vsFSU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	@SYR	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSTAN	W 64-63	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsNCSU	L 88-98	+8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

OSU

W 67-66

+6.5

TA&M

L 73-81

−4.5

HOF

L 73-80

−15.5

VILL

L 61-79

−7.5

BING

W 103-63

+15.5

PSU

W 80-46

+35.5

MIA

L 69-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 68-73

−1.5

SYR

L 72-83

−12.5

W 89-66

+21.5

LOU

L 59-100

−33.5

L 62-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 72-81

−2.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−0.5

UVA

L 47-67

−7.5

SMU

L 67-86

−14.5

DUKE

L 54-70

+1.5

UNC

L 65-79

−2.5

W 73-68

+1.5

STAN

L 67-75

+0.5

CAL

W 72-56

+22.5

FSU

L 74-75

+0.5

SYR

W 71-69

+7.5

STAN

W 64-63

+5.5

NCSU

L 88-98

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

OSU

W 67-66

−15.5

TA&M

L 73-81

+1.5

HOF

L 73-80

+18.5

VILL

L 61-79

+1.5

BING

W 103-63

+31.5

PSU

W 80-46

−20.5

MIA

L 69-76

+0.5

CLEM

L 68-73

+5.5

SYR

L 72-83

+12.5

W 89-66

+9.5

LOU

L 59-100

+6.5

L 62-65

−10.5

NCSU

L 72-81

+8.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+5.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−20.5

UVA

L 47-67

−28.5

SMU

L 67-86

+5.5

DUKE

L 54-70

−12.5

UNC

L 65-79

+1.5

W 73-68

+0.5

STAN

L 67-75

+3.5

CAL

W 72-56

−15.5

FSU

L 74-75

+4.5

SYR

W 71-69

−1.5

STAN

W 64-63

−9.5

NCSU

L 88-98

+41.5

over 19under 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pitt has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 0, Pitt 2, even 3

RiderBetterPitt

G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44

PITTSmall

G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75

G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

PITTBig

G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93

G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59

G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90

F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71

RiderBetterPitt

RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2

PITTBig

PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3

RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2

PITTBig

PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

PITTBig

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

PITTBig

Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.3 · 1 player

RIDBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRID betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rider

Guards

M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew

Forwards

H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew

Centers

S. Avegah SemeyNew

Pitt

Guards

N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min

Forwards

T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew

Centers

A. Mighty32 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RID62.6 #359

PITT70.5 #274

Points per possession

RID0.95 #355

PITT1.08 #181

Pace (possessions)

RID65.7 #323

PITT65.0 #345

Shooting

Effective FG%

RID42.8 #365

PITT51.0 #193

3-point %

RID27.6 #365

PITT33.4 #206

3-point attempt rate

RID27.5 #361

PITT42.6 #124

Free throw rate

RID30.1 #307

PITT30.4 #300

Possessions

Turnover rate

RID16.9 #197

PITT17.2 #223

Offensive rebound rate

RID32.6 #101

PITT33.9 #72

Assists per game

RID10.1 #356

PITT13.2 #197

Defense

Points allowed

RID76.8 #236

PITT71.8 #101

Points allowed per possession

RID1.17 #341

PITT1.11 #237

Opponent effective FG%

RID55.2 #335

PITT53.4 #279

Opponent 3-point %

RID38.0 #356

PITT35.2 #263

Turnovers forced

RID15.3 #266

PITT16.3 #202

Defensive rebound rate

RID67.2 #294

PITT71.9 #68

Steals per game

RID5.9 #247

PITT6.5 #172

Blocks per game

RID3.2 #188

PITT3.1 #203

RID		PITT
Scoring
62.6 #359	Points per game	70.5 #274
0.95 #355	Points per possession	1.08 #181
65.7 #323	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #345
Shooting
42.8 #365	Effective FG%	51.0 #193
27.6 #365	3-point %	33.4 #206
27.5 #361	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #124
30.1 #307	Free throw rate	30.4 #300
Possessions
16.9 #197	Turnover rate	17.2 #223
32.6 #101	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #72
10.1 #356	Assists per game	13.2 #197
Defense
76.8 #236	Points allowed	71.8 #101
1.17 #341	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #237
55.2 #335	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #279
38.0 #356	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #263
15.3 #266	Turnovers forced	16.3 #202
67.2 #294	Defensive rebound rate	71.9 #68
5.9 #247	Steals per game	6.5 #172
3.2 #188	Blocks per game	3.1 #203

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Siena61–76
L@ Iona58–80
Wvs Niagara67–62
Lvs Canisius66–72
L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC State88–98
Wvs Stanford64–63
W@ Syracuse71–69
Lvs Florida St74–75
W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.