New Haven Chargers at Syracuse Orange: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETJMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse

LineSYR -27.5no move

Total132.5down 8 from 140.5

Season records: New Haven and Syracuse
NHVN	This season	SYR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SYR 85–57 · win probability SYR 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

SYR -27.5

no move since the open

Total

132.5

model 141.9 · Over by 9.5

Model edge

SYR by 1.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

NHVN 1, SYR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SYRBig

NHVN offense vs SYR defense

Offense 362nd of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NHVN has played the 307th-hardest schedule, SYR the 67th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SYRBig

SYR offense vs NHVN defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 285th, on the model’s ratings

SYRBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NHVN 48.7 and allows 51.8; SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: NHVN plays 63.5 a game (363rd fastest), SYR 69.1 (173rd). Faster games mean more points

NHVNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NHVN 21.5%, SYR 29.2%. Defensive: NHVN 73.2%, SYR 66.4%

SYRSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NHVN 17.8%, SYR 15.9%. Forced: NHVN 17.1%, SYR 17.4%

SYRSmall

Three-pointers

NHVN hits 30.2% and allows 34.3%; SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 39.9% and 37.1% of their shots

SYRSmall

Home court

SYR at home. This season: SYR 0-0 at home, NHVN 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NHVN 27%, SYR 19%. Transfers in: NHVN 0, SYR 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NHVN 31.7, SYR 35.1. Allowed: NHVN 27.7, SYR 32.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 130 to 134.5	1355	72%	50%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenSYR -27.5

no move

NowSYR -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open140.5

▼ 8

Now132.5

Down 8 since the open

Moneyline

NHVN +4000 · SYR -50000

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened SYR -27.5 · unchangedmodel SYR -29

model SYR -29

Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NHVN	SYR	Over	Under	NHVN	SYR
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-27.5-110	+27.5-110	132-115	132-105	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-25.5-108	+25.5-118	136.5-106	136.5-121	—	—
BovadaBovada	-27.5-110	+27.5-110	134-110	134-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-27.5-112	+27.5-108	133.5-115	133.5-105	+4000	-50000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-27.5-106	+27.5-106	132-113	132-103	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	SYR -27.5	SYR -28.9	SYR +1.4
Total	132.5	141.9	Over 9.4
Projected score	—	NHVN 56.5 · SYR 85.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SYR -17.0	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	NHVN 24.7 · SYR 41.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NHVN WWLLW	15-13	54%	9-7	11-10
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	8-10	8-9

Venue/role: NHVN away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NHVN UOUUU	8-20	29%	11-17
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NHVN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Haven

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ RUTG	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs ARMY	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ PSU	L43–87LU

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs CCSU	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs IU	W112–110WO
Nov 15	@ SJU	L69–76LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Haven

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

15-13

54% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W W L L L L L W L L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1354%

W L L W W W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2029%

U U U U U U O O U O U O U U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CONN	L 55-79	+42.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsCOLU	L 53-71	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 8	vsPSU	L 43-87	+18.5	L −25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@UML	W 73-67	+10.5	W +16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 15	vsDSU	W 65-52	-1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 18	@HALL	L 45-68	+25.5	W +2.5	129.5	U 113
Dec 6	@BC	L 63-67	+17.5	W +13.5	126.5	O 130
Dec 10	@NJIT	L 64-70	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 134
Dec 22	@FOR	L 47-65	+13.5	L −4.5	127.5	U 112
Dec 29	@VAN	L 53-96	+39.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 2	@STO	W 70-55	+1.5	W +16.5	128.5	U 125
Jan 4	@CCSU	L 61-72	+7.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 133
Jan 8	@LEM	L 47-73	+5.5	L −20.5	137.5	U 120
Jan 10	vsFDU	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsWAG	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 19	@CHST	W 62-56	+1.5	W +7.5	129.5	U 118
Jan 23	vsMERC	L 57-61	+1.5	L −2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MERC	L 51-70	+5.5	L −13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@SFPA	W 81-69	+1.5	W +13.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LIU	L 55-60	+9.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 7	vsCHST	L 57-63	-5.5	L −11.5	127.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsCCSU	L 76-81	+3.5	L −1.5	128.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsLIU	W 55-52	+6.5	W +9.5	129.5	U 107
Feb 19	vsSTO	W 64-51	-2.5	W +10.5	121.5	U 115
Feb 21	@FDU	W 84-77	+2.5	W +9.5	123.5	O 161
Feb 24	vsSFPA	L 67-73	-6.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 26	@WAG	L 62-65	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsLEM	W 66-59	+1.5	W +8.5	137.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

+18.5

COLU

L 53-71

−10.5

PSU

L 43-87

−25.5

UML

W 73-67

+16.5

DSU

W 65-52

+11.5

HALL

L 45-68

+2.5

L 63-67

+13.5

NJIT

L 64-70

−8.5

FOR

L 47-65

−4.5

VAN

L 53-96

−3.5

STO

W 70-55

+16.5

CCSU

L 61-72

−3.5

LEM

L 47-73

−20.5

FDU

W 65-55

+8.5

WAG

W 80-74

+4.5

CHST

W 62-56

+7.5

MERC

L 57-61

−2.5

MERC

L 51-70

−13.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+13.5

LIU

L 55-60

+4.5

CHST

L 57-63

−11.5

CCSU

L 76-81

−1.5

LIU

W 55-52

+9.5

STO

W 64-51

+10.5

FDU

W 84-77

+9.5

SFPA

L 67-73

−12.5

WAG

L 62-65

−0.5

LEM

W 66-59

+8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

−11.5

COLU

L 53-71

−24.5

PSU

L 43-87

−13.5

UML

W 73-67

−2.5

DSU

W 65-52

−13.5

HALL

L 45-68

−16.5

L 63-67

+3.5

NJIT

L 64-70

+3.5

FOR

L 47-65

−15.5

VAN

L 53-96

+3.5

STO

W 70-55

−3.5

CCSU

L 61-72

+2.5

LEM

L 47-73

−17.5

FDU

W 65-55

−10.5

WAG

W 80-74

+24.5

CHST

W 62-56

−11.5

MERC

L 57-61

−4.5

MERC

L 51-70

−1.5

SFPA

W 81-69

+18.5

LIU

L 55-60

−20.5

CHST

L 57-63

−7.5

CCSU

L 76-81

+28.5

LIU

W 55-52

−22.5

STO

W 64-51

−6.5

FDU

W 84-77

+37.5

SFPA

L 67-73

−1.5

WAG

L 62-65

−4.5

LEM

W 66-59

−12.5

over 8under 20avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Syracuse has the better starters

Position by position: New Haven 0, Syracuse 2, even 3

New HavenBetterSyracuse

G K. Briggs6.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 38

SYRBig

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

G A. Losiewicz2.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

F T. Steele3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

SYRBig

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

F Z. Traore1.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

C T. Burth0.9 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

New HavenBetterSyracuse

NHVN offense362nd of 366 · -14.4

SYRBig

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

NHVN defense285th of 366 · -7.1

SYRBig

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-1.3 · 2 players

SYRBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.5 · 3 players

SYRBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNHVN betterSYR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Haven

Guards

K. Briggs19 minA. Losiewicz7 minD. YoungNewF. MosleyNewD. LaDucaNewJ. HannaNew

Forwards

T. Steele15 minZ. Traore7 minN. NarcisseNewA. RamirezNewJ. BascombeNewM. OgleNew

Centers

T. Burth6 minT. ColemanNewM. CamaraNew

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NHVN61.5 #363

SYR75.0 #163

Points per possession

NHVN0.97 #345

SYR1.08 #174

Pace (possessions)

NHVN63.5 #363

SYR69.1 #173

Shooting

Effective FG%

NHVN48.7 #296

SYR52.6 #122

3-point %

NHVN30.2 #340

SYR32.9 #239

3-point attempt rate

NHVN39.9 #172

SYR37.1 #226

Free throw rate

NHVN31.7 #261

SYR35.1 #171

Possessions

Turnover rate

NHVN17.8 #259

SYR15.9 #134

Offensive rebound rate

NHVN21.5 #359

SYR29.2 #228

Assists per game

NHVN10.9 #339

SYR12.8 #225

Defense

Points allowed

NHVN67.4 #24

SYR74.3 #163

Points allowed per possession

NHVN1.06 #107

SYR1.07 #144

Opponent effective FG%

NHVN51.8 #203

SYR50.3 #116

Opponent 3-point %

NHVN34.3 #199

SYR34.1 #186

Turnovers forced

NHVN17.1 #146

SYR17.4 #125

Defensive rebound rate

NHVN73.2 #30

SYR66.4 #310

Steals per game

NHVN6.0 #232

SYR6.2 #214

Blocks per game

NHVN2.0 #342

SYR5.9 #4

NHVN		SYR
Scoring
61.5 #363	Points per game	75.0 #163
0.97 #345	Points per possession	1.08 #174
63.5 #363	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #173
Shooting
48.7 #296	Effective FG%	52.6 #122
30.2 #340	3-point %	32.9 #239
39.9 #172	3-point attempt rate	37.1 #226
31.7 #261	Free throw rate	35.1 #171
Possessions
17.8 #259	Turnover rate	15.9 #134
21.5 #359	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #228
10.9 #339	Assists per game	12.8 #225
Defense
67.4 #24	Points allowed	74.3 #163
1.06 #107	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #144
51.8 #203	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #116
34.3 #199	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #186
17.1 #146	Turnovers forced	17.4 #125
73.2 #30	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #310
6.0 #232	Steals per game	6.2 #214
2.0 #342	Blocks per game	5.9 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Haven

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Le Moyne66–59
L@ Wagner62–65
Lvs Saint Francis Red Wolves67–73
W@ FDU84–77
Wvs Stonehill64–51

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.