Syracuse Orange vs Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 6:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Syracuse and Indiana
SYR	This season	IU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 79–75 · win probability IU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

SYR 2, IU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IUSmall

Three-pointers

SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 37.1% and 50.5% of their shots

IUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0

SYRSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SYR 35.1, IU 35.0. Allowed: SYR 32.6, IU 37.0

IUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SYR 29.2%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: SYR 66.4%, IU 70.8%

SYRSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SYR 15.9%, IU 15.1%. Forced: SYR 17.4%, IU 15.1%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SYR plays 69.1 a game (173rd fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points

Even

IU offense vs SYR defense

Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

Even

SYR offense vs IU defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SYR has played the 67th-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SYR 19%, IU 19%. Transfers in: SYR 6, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IU -4.0	—
Total	—	153.2	—
Projected score	—	SYR 74.6 · IU 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IU -2.2	—
1H total	71.6	—
1H projected score	SYR 34.7 · IU 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	2-3	—
IU LLWLL	14-18	44%	1-2	—

Venue/role: SYR neutral site; IU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17
IU UUUOU	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
IU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ SJU	L69–76LU
Nov 18	vs COR	W82–72WU
Nov 21	vs LAF	W97–63WO

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs TNTC	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs ARK	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs UK	L60–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SYR 1–0 IUSYR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SYR 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2021-22	IU 110 @ SYR 112	SYR +3	SYR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O U U U O U O O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 25	vsKSU	W 86-69	-10.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 155
Nov 29	vsBCU	W 100-56	-29.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 3	@MINN	L 64-73	-7.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLOU	L 78-87	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 9	vsPSU	W 113-72	-14.5	W +26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	@UK	L 60-72	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsCHST	W 78-58	-38.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsSIE	W 81-60	-21.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 4	vsWASH	W 90-80	-9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@MD	W 84-66	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsNEB	L 77-83	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	@MSU	L 60-81	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsIOWA	L 57-74	-3.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	@MICH	L 72-86	+15.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 23	@RUTG	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsPUR	W 72-67	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 31	@UCLA	W 98-97	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	@USC	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsWIS	W 78-77	-3.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 9	vsORE	W 92-74	-10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 15	@ILL	L 51-71	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 20	@PUR	L 64-93	+11.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsNU	L 68-72	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsMSU	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsMINN	W 77-47	-7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	@OSU	L 78-91	+3.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsNU	L 61-74	-6.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

KSU

W 86-69

+6.5

BCU

W 100-56

+14.5

MINN

L 64-73

−16.5

LOU

L 78-87

−5.5

PSU

W 113-72

+26.5

L 60-72

−8.5

CHST

W 78-58

−18.5

SIE

W 81-60

−0.5

WASH

W 90-80

+0.5

W 84-66

+10.5

NEB

L 77-83

−10.5

MSU

L 60-81

−14.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−20.5

MICH

L 72-86

+1.5

RUTG

W 82-59

+15.5

PUR

W 72-67

+9.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+4.5

USC

L 75-81

−7.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+7.5

ILL

L 51-71

−11.5

PUR

L 64-93

−17.5

L 68-72

−13.5

MSU

L 64-77

−10.5

MINN

W 77-47

+22.5

OSU

L 78-91

−9.5

L 61-74

−19.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

KSU

W 86-69

−9.5

BCU

W 100-56

+7.5

MINN

L 64-73

−7.5

LOU

L 78-87

+2.5

PSU

W 113-72

+32.5

L 60-72

−24.5

CHST

W 78-58

−16.5

SIE

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 90-80

+17.5

W 84-66

+2.5

NEB

L 77-83

+9.5

MSU

L 60-81

−4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−15.5

MICH

L 72-86

−5.5

RUTG

W 82-59

−6.5

PUR

W 72-67

−11.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+50.5

USC

L 75-81

+2.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+22.5

ILL

L 51-71

−31.5

PUR

L 64-93

+6.5

L 68-72

−5.5

MSU

L 64-77

−3.5

MINN

W 77-47

−14.5

OSU

L 78-91

+20.5

L 61-74

−7.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: Syracuse 0, Indiana 1, even 4

SyracuseBetterIndiana

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

Even

G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

Even

G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

Even

G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

IUSmall

F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

Even

C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64

SyracuseBetterIndiana

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Even

IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

Even

IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

IUSmall

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

SYRSmall

Bench+0.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSYR betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

Indiana

Guards

M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min

Forwards

A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew

Centers

S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SYR75.0 #163

IU78.2 #93

Points per possession

SYR1.08 #174

IU1.16 #46

Pace (possessions)

SYR69.1 #173

IU67.4 #260

Shooting

Effective FG%

SYR52.6 #122

IU56.1 #22

3-point %

SYR32.9 #239

IU34.7 #138

3-point attempt rate

SYR37.1 #226

IU50.5 #14

Free throw rate

SYR35.1 #171

IU35.0 #179

Possessions

Turnover rate

SYR15.9 #134

IU15.1 #71

Offensive rebound rate

SYR29.2 #228

IU26.9 #300

Assists per game

SYR12.8 #225

IU16.6 #34

Defense

Points allowed

SYR74.3 #163

IU72.2 #109

Points allowed per possession

SYR1.07 #144

IU1.07 #131

Opponent effective FG%

SYR50.3 #116

IU49.0 #68

Opponent 3-point %

SYR34.1 #186

IU33.1 #128

Turnovers forced

SYR17.4 #125

IU15.1 #284

Defensive rebound rate

SYR66.4 #310

IU70.8 #122

Steals per game

SYR6.2 #214

IU4.7 #348

Blocks per game

SYR5.9 #4

IU2.7 #278

SYR		IU
Scoring
75.0 #163	Points per game	78.2 #93
1.08 #174	Points per possession	1.16 #46
69.1 #173	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #260
Shooting
52.6 #122	Effective FG%	56.1 #22
32.9 #239	3-point %	34.7 #138
37.1 #226	3-point attempt rate	50.5 #14
35.1 #171	Free throw rate	35.0 #179
Possessions
15.9 #134	Turnover rate	15.1 #71
29.2 #228	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #300
12.8 #225	Assists per game	16.6 #34
Defense
74.3 #163	Points allowed	72.2 #109
1.07 #144	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #131
50.3 #116	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #68
34.1 #186	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #128
17.4 #125	Turnovers forced	15.1 #284
66.4 #310	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #122
6.2 #214	Steals per game	4.7 #348
5.9 #4	Blocks per game	2.7 #278

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern61–74
L@ Ohio State78–91
Wvs Minnesota77–47
Lvs Michigan St64–77
Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse Orange vs Indiana Hoosiers

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Syracuse

Indiana

Indiana has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Syracuse

Indiana