1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. WAG @ CONN
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

Wagner Seahawks at UConn Huskies

M&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion · at UConn
#354WAGWagner
@
#6CONNUConn AP #4
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAGThis seasonCONN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 91–48 · win probability CONN 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 138.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

WAG 0, CONN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CONNBig
WAG offense vs CONN defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CONNBig
CONN offense vs WAG defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
CONNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, CONN 17.8%
CONNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7
CONNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: WAG 8, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CONNSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, CONN 71.2%
CONNSmall
Home court
CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, WAG 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 36.1% and 40.9% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, CONN 29.9. Allowed: WAG 40.8, CONN 40.7
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CONN -42.8—
Total—138.3—
Projected score—WAG 47.7 · CONN 90.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCONN -25.4—
1H total64.8—
1H projected scoreWAG 19.7 · CONN 45.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UConn has the better starters

Position by position: Wagner 0, UConn 3, even 2
WagnerBetterUConn
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
CONNBig
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
CONNBig
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
CONNBig
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
WagnerBetterUConn
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
CONNBig
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
CONNBig
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
CONNBig
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
CONNBig
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAGCONN
Scoring
69.6 #292Points per game76.6 #129
1.05 #250Points per possession1.16 #52
66.4 #299Pace (possessions)66.1 #307
Shooting
49.6 #262Effective FG%54.3 #59
36.6 #363-point %34.4 #150
36.1 #2493-point attempt rate40.9 #149
32.4 #252Free throw rate29.9 #313
Possessions
18.6 #303Turnover rate16.4 #163
32.8 #96Offensive rebound rate35.7 #30
11.9 #289Assists per game18.1 #9
Defense
72.7 #126Points allowed65.2 #6
1.09 #208Points allowed per possession0.99 #17
50.4 #123Opponent effective FG%45.7 #7
34.3 #202Opponent 3-point %30.1 #8
14.9 #295Turnovers forced17.8 #107
70.5 #139Defensive rebound rate71.2 #99
5.2 #321Steals per game6.8 #143
2.3 #320Blocks per game5.0 #15
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.