1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. GRAM @ TEX
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

Grambling Tigers at Texas Longhorns

Moody Center · at Texas
#338GRAMGrambling
@
#11TEXTexas AP #7
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GRAMThis seasonTEX
0-1Record0-0
1-0ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 97–57 · win probability TEX 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

GRAM 0, TEX 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TEXBig
GRAM offense vs TEX defense
Offense 347th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GRAM has played the 355th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TEXBig
TEX offense vs GRAM defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 302nd, on the model’s ratings
TEXBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GRAM 30.3%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: GRAM 67.5%, TEX 73.1%
TEXSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GRAM 48.8 and allows 50.0; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
TEXSmall
Home court
TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, GRAM 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GRAM 21.2%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: GRAM 20.8%, TEX 13.0%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: GRAM plays 69.4 a game (155th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GRAM 41.1, TEX 44.2. Allowed: GRAM 40.0, TEX 39.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GRAM 23%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: GRAM 4, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
GRAM hits 32.3% and allows 32.7%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 35.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TEX -39.8—
Total—153.3—
Projected score—GRAM 56.8 · TEX 96.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTEX -23.5—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreGRAM 24.1 · TEX 47.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Grambling 0, Texas 5, even 0
GramblingBetterTexas
G I. Howard13 pts · 1 reb · 4 ast Score 18
TEXBig
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
G D. Pierce TR19 pts · 0 reb · 8 ast Score 36
TEXBig
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
G B. Hardy TR3.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 2
TEXBig
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F H. Washington TR4.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2
TEXBig
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
F M. Fitts2.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 17
TEXBig
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
GramblingBetterTexas
GRAM offense347th of 366 · -12.0
TEXBig
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
GRAM defense302nd of 366 · -7.7
TEXBig
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players
TEXBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players
TEXBig
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 2 players
TEXSmall
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestGRAM betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Grambling
Guards
I. Howard31 minD. Pierce31 min · TRB. Hardy19 min · TRC. Perkins5 minK. LaytonNewT. BeyNew
Forwards
H. Washington17 min · TRM. Fitts10 minI. Miranda8 min · TRI. ErimsNew
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GRAMTEX
Scoring
69.0 #299Points per game81.7 #34
1.00 #331Points per possession1.19 #22
69.4 #155Pace (possessions)68.7 #199
Shooting
48.8 #295Effective FG%54.1 #65
32.3 #2653-point %35.1 #107
38.1 #2103-point attempt rate35.8 #254
41.1 #45Free throw rate44.2 #7
Possessions
21.2 #357Turnover rate15.0 #68
30.3 #188Offensive rebound rate35.4 #35
11.9 #292Assists per game12.1 #278
Defense
71.3 #83Points allowed76.1 #220
1.03 #51Points allowed per possession1.11 #235
50.0 #97Opponent effective FG%50.8 #144
32.7 #99Opponent 3-point %34.7 #230
20.8 #12Turnovers forced13.0 #356
67.5 #280Defensive rebound rate73.1 #35
7.7 #68Steals per game5.5 #298
2.7 #283Blocks per game2.9 #239
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grambling

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Jackson St65–68
  • Wvs Miss Valley St77–52
  • W@ Alabama St65–63
  • L@ Alabama A&M63–77
  • Lvs Florida A&M59–66

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.