Radford Highlanders at Tennessee Volunteers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETFood City Center · at Tennessee

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Radford and Tennessee
RAD	This season	TENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 95–59 · win probability TENN 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

RAD 1, TENN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TENNBig

TENN offense vs RAD defense

Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 286th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

RAD has played the 243rd-hardest schedule, TENN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TENNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RAD 29.8%, TENN 44.7%. Defensive: RAD 67.8%, TENN 72.2%

TENNBig

RAD offense vs TENN defense

Offense 213th of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TENNBig

Three-pointers

RAD hits 33.5% and allows 35.5%; TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 45.4% and 32.1% of their shots

TENNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RAD 51.4 and allows 53.0; TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: RAD plays 73.6 a game (13th fastest), TENN 68.1 (226th). Faster games mean more points

RADSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RAD 17.1%, TENN 17.4%. Forced: RAD 18.5%, TENN 16.1%

TENNSmall

Home court

TENN at home. This season: TENN 0-0 at home, RAD 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RAD 42.4, TENN 37.4. Allowed: RAD 40.0, TENN 36.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RAD 12%, TENN 13%. Transfers in: RAD 6, TENN 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TENN -35.8	—
Total	—	154.0	—
Projected score	—	RAD 59.1 · TENN 94.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TENN -21.2	—
1H total	72.0	—
1H projected score	RAD 25.4 · TENN 46.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RAD LWWLL	14-15	48%	8-4	—
TENN LWWWL	17-20	46%	7-10	—

Venue/role: RAD away; TENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RAD UUUOO	17-12	59%	13-16
TENN UUOUO	18-19	49%	25-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RAD	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
TENN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Radford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs FUR	L64–81LO
Nov 21	@ UTC	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ AMER	No recent meeting

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs TNST	W89–60LU
Nov 17	vs MSU	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs CCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Radford

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

W L L L L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

L W L L L L W L W W L L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O U O U O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsCLE	L 82-87	-8.5	L −13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 18	@SC	L 58-87	+10.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsUNCW	L 73-81	+4.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 24	@SMU	L 72-89	+23.5	W +6.5	165.5	U 161
Dec 3	vsUSM	L 75-82	-3.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 7	vsSFPA	W 89-56	-13.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 14	vsCOPP	W 107-77	-20.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 18	@W&M	L 83-96	+8.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 21	vsVMI	W 97-90	-11.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 187
Dec 31	@UPST	W 76-69	+1.5	W +8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsPRES	W 80-61	-6.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsUNCA	L 72-91	-4.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 14	@GWEB	W 89-80	-13.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsLONG	W 85-83	-4.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	@WIN	L 75-76	+9.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 23	vsHPU	L 83-93	+7.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 176
Jan 29	@CHSO	W 84-75	-1.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 159
Jan 31	@PRES	W 93-84	+1.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 4	vsWIN	L 78-80	+4.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	@HPU	L 77-86	+14.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsCHSO	W 90-80	-4.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 170
Feb 19	vsGWEB	W 82-70	-18.5	L −6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 21	@UNCA	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Feb 26	vsUPST	W 71-59	-7.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	@LONG	L 74-90	+1.5	L −14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsPRES	L 85-91	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

CLE

L 82-87

−13.5

L 58-87

−18.5

UNCW

L 73-81

−3.5

SMU

L 72-89

+6.5

USM

L 75-82

−10.5

SFPA

W 89-56

+19.5

COPP

W 107-77

+9.5

W&M

L 83-96

−4.5

VMI

W 97-90

−4.5

UPST

W 76-69

+8.5

PRES

W 80-61

+12.5

UNCA

L 72-91

−23.5

GWEB

W 89-80

−4.5

LONG

W 85-83

−2.5

WIN

L 75-76

+8.5

HPU

L 83-93

−2.5

CHSO

W 84-75

+7.5

PRES

W 93-84

+10.5

WIN

L 78-80

+2.5

HPU

L 77-86

+5.5

CHSO

W 90-80

+5.5

GWEB

W 82-70

−6.5

UNCA

L 73-74

+1.5

UPST

W 71-59

+4.5

LONG

L 74-90

−14.5

PRES

L 85-91

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

CLE

L 82-87

+6.5

L 58-87

−8.5

UNCW

L 73-81

+2.5

SMU

L 72-89

−4.5

USM

L 75-82

+4.5

SFPA

W 89-56

−9.5

COPP

W 107-77

+29.5

W&M

L 83-96

+8.5

VMI

W 97-90

+28.5

UPST

W 76-69

−13.5

PRES

W 80-61

−6.5

UNCA

L 72-91

+11.5

GWEB

W 89-80

+3.5

LONG

W 85-83

+10.5

WIN

L 75-76

−14.5

HPU

L 83-93

+10.5

CHSO

W 84-75

−3.5

PRES

W 93-84

+25.5

WIN

L 78-80

−3.5

HPU

L 77-86

+0.5

CHSO

W 90-80

+8.5

GWEB

W 82-70

−10.5

UNCA

L 73-74

−2.5

UPST

W 71-59

−22.5

LONG

L 74-90

+9.5

PRES

L 85-91

+29.5

over 17under 12avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

L W L L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

U O O O U O O O U U U U O O O O O O U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMER	W 76-61	-28.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 95-56	-27.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	vsUNF	W 99-66	-41.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 17	vsRICE	W 91-66	-26.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTNST	W 89-60	-31.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsRUTG	W 85-60	-14.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsHOU	W 76-73	+2.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsKU	L 76-81	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	@SYR	L 60-62	-7.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsILL	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 16	vsLOU	W 83-62	-4.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 145
Dec 21	vsGWEB	W 94-52	-42.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 30	vsSCST	W 105-54	-44.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	@ARK	L 75-86	-1.5	L −12.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 6	vsTEX	W 85-71	-12.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 156
Jan 10	@FLA	L 67-91	+4.5	L −19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	vsTA&M	W 87-82	-11.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsUK	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 24	@ALA	W 79-73	+4.5	W +10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 28	@UGA	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 31	vsAUB	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 146
Feb 3	vsMISS	W 84-66	-12.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@UK	L 71-74	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 11	@MSST	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsLSU	W 73-63	-14.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 18	vsOU	W 89-66	-11.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	@VAN	W 69-65	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 24	@MIZ	L 69-73	-3.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 28	vsALA	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@SC	W 78-59	-10.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsVAN	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 12	vsAUB	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 13	vsVAN	L 68-75	-1.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 20	vsM-OH	W 78-56	-12.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 22	vsUVA	W 79-72	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 151
Mar 27	vsISU	W 76-62	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 138
Mar 29	vsMICH	L 62-95	+8.5	L −24.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−13.5

NKU

W 95-56

+11.5

UNF

W 99-66

−8.5

RICE

W 91-66

−1.5

TNST

W 89-60

−2.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+10.5

HOU

W 76-73

+5.5

L 76-81

−12.5

SYR

L 60-62

−9.5

ILL

L 62-75

−14.5

LOU

W 83-62

+16.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−0.5

SCST

W 105-54

+6.5

ARK

L 75-86

−12.5

TEX

W 85-71

+1.5

FLA

L 67-91

−19.5

TA&M

W 87-82

−6.5

L 78-80

−8.5

ALA

W 79-73

+10.5

UGA

W 86-85

−0.5

AUB

W 77-69

+2.5

MISS

W 84-66

+5.5

L 71-74

−1.5

MSST

W 73-64

+0.5

LSU

W 73-63

−4.5

W 89-66

+11.5

VAN

W 69-65

+6.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−7.5

ALA

L 69-71

−7.5

W 78-59

+8.5

VAN

L 82-86

−6.5

AUB

W 72-62

+4.5

VAN

L 68-75

−8.5

M-OH

W 78-56

+9.5

UVA

W 79-72

+5.5

ISU

W 76-62

+16.5

MICH

L 62-95

−24.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−6.5

NKU

W 95-56

+13.5

UNF

W 99-66

+9.5

RICE

W 91-66

+13.5

TNST

W 89-60

−8.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+3.5

HOU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 76-81

+16.5

SYR

L 60-62

−25.5

ILL

L 62-75

−12.5

LOU

W 83-62

−11.5

GWEB

W 94-52

−6.5

SCST

W 105-54

+11.5

ARK

L 75-86

+2.5

TEX

W 85-71

+2.5

FLA

L 67-91

+6.5

TA&M

W 87-82

+9.5

L 78-80

+12.5

ALA

W 79-73

−15.5

UGA

W 86-85

+13.5

AUB

W 77-69

−1.5

MISS

W 84-66

+10.5

L 71-74

−2.5

MSST

W 73-64

−10.5

LSU

W 73-63

−7.5

W 89-66

+5.5

VAN

W 69-65

−16.5

MIZ

L 69-73

−1.5

ALA

L 69-71

−22.5

W 78-59

−4.5

VAN

L 82-86

+21.5

AUB

W 72-62

−10.5

VAN

L 68-75

−4.5

M-OH

W 78-56

−14.5

UVA

W 79-72

+13.5

ISU

W 76-62

−1.5

MICH

L 62-95

+10.5

over 18under 19avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee has the better starters

Position by position: Radford 0, Tennessee 5, even 0

RadfordBetterTennessee

G J. Robinson TR6.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 52

TENNBig

G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99

G T. Gross TR3.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 21

TENNBig

G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63

F C. Jackson TR4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

TENNBig

G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83

F P. Kabamba TR5.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

TENNSmall

F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53

F F. Erichsen4.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

TENNBig

C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83

RadfordBetterTennessee

RAD offense213th of 366 · -6.5

TENNBig

TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2

RAD defense286th of 366 · -7.2

TENNBig

TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

TENNBig

Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.1 · 3 players

TENNBig

Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players

Bench-1.0 · 4 players

TENNBig

Bench+11.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRAD betterTENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Radford

Guards

J. Robinson17 min · TRT. Gross13 min · TRW. Keel6 minM. Grujicic6 min · TRJ. Kee3 min · TRK. PruettNew

Forwards

C. Jackson17 min · TRP. Kabamba17 min · TRF. Erichsen13 minA. NokesNew

Centers

G. Ferreira5 min

Tennessee

Guards

J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min

Forwards

B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew

Centers

M. Rubin30 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RAD79.9 #70

TENN78.8 #81

Points per possession

RAD1.09 #168

TENN1.16 #49

Pace (possessions)

RAD73.6 #13

TENN68.1 #226

Shooting

Effective FG%

RAD51.4 #181

TENN51.4 #174

3-point %

RAD33.5 #199

TENN33.4 #201

3-point attempt rate

RAD45.4 #59

TENN32.1 #328

Free throw rate

RAD42.4 #25

TENN37.4 #115

Possessions

Turnover rate

RAD17.1 #210

TENN17.4 #227

Offensive rebound rate

RAD29.8 #207

TENN44.7 #1

Assists per game

RAD12.0 #284

TENN17.1 #24

Defense

Points allowed

RAD80.8 #330

TENN69.6 #58

Points allowed per possession

RAD1.10 #216

TENN1.02 #43

Opponent effective FG%

RAD53.0 #271

TENN47.8 #37

Opponent 3-point %

RAD35.5 #279

TENN30.5 #21

Turnovers forced

RAD18.5 #72

TENN16.1 #215

Defensive rebound rate

RAD67.8 #267

TENN72.2 #61

Steals per game

RAD7.5 #79

TENN7.3 #101

Blocks per game

RAD3.4 #158

TENN3.7 #114

RAD		TENN
Scoring
79.9 #70	Points per game	78.8 #81
1.09 #168	Points per possession	1.16 #49
73.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	68.1 #226
Shooting
51.4 #181	Effective FG%	51.4 #174
33.5 #199	3-point %	33.4 #201
45.4 #59	3-point attempt rate	32.1 #328
42.4 #25	Free throw rate	37.4 #115
Possessions
17.1 #210	Turnover rate	17.4 #227
29.8 #207	Offensive rebound rate	44.7 #1
12.0 #284	Assists per game	17.1 #24
Defense
80.8 #330	Points allowed	69.6 #58
1.10 #216	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #43
53.0 #271	Opponent effective FG%	47.8 #37
35.5 #279	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #21
18.5 #72	Turnovers forced	16.1 #215
67.8 #267	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #61
7.5 #79	Steals per game	7.3 #101
3.4 #158	Blocks per game	3.7 #114

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Radford

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-8 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Presbyterian85–91
L@ Longwood74–90
Wvs SC Upstate71–59
L@ UNC Asheville73–74
Wvs Gardner-Webb82–70

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan62–95
Wvs Iowa State76–62
Wvs Virginia79–72
Wvs Miami OH78–56
Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.

Radford Highlanders at Tennessee Volunteers

What could decide it: TENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

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Radford

Tennessee

Tennessee has the better starters

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Radford

Tennessee