Cam Henderson Center · at Marshall
Line
MRSH -2.5no move
Total157.5up 1 from 156.5
| This season | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MRSH 77–75 · win probability MRSH 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MRSH -2.5
no move since the open
Total
157.5
model 152.4 · Under by 5
Model edge
BUF by 1
model vs market
Public on the spread
53% MRSH
56% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it
BUF 3, MRSH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Free throws
Free throw rate: BUF 39.6, MRSH 29.2. Allowed: BUF 31.4, MRSH 41.1
Shooting
Effective FG%: BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1; MRSH 54.8 and allows 50.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BUF plays 68.2 a game (219th fastest), MRSH 70.7 (86th). Faster games mean more points
BUF offense vs MRSH defense
Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 277th, on the model’s ratings
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BUF 16.2%, MRSH 16.6%. Forced: BUF 17.8%, MRSH 16.2%
MRSH offense vs BUF defense
Offense 198th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings
Home court
MRSH at home. This season: MRSH 0-0 at home, BUF 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%; MRSH hits 36.8% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 45.5% and 44.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BUF has played the 198th-hardest schedule, MRSH the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BUF 8%, MRSH 27%. Transfers in: BUF 7, MRSH 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BUF 27.1%, MRSH 31.9%. Defensive: BUF 68.9%, MRSH 66.2%
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of under 3 | 1938 | 56% | 51% | 49% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1094 | 54% | 49% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 155 to 159.5 | 1555 | 74% | 51% | 49% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenMRSH -2.5
no move
NowMRSH -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
▲ 1
Now157.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +105 · MRSH -132
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MRSH -2.5 · now MRSH -1.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel MRSH -1.5 matches the line
model MRSH -1.5 = line ✓
Opened 156.5 · now 157 · moved 0.5 upmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 157.5TotalUnder 157.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Money is 21 pts ahead of bets on MRSH
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | MRSH | Over | Under | BUF | MRSH | |
| BetMGMMGM | -1.5-105 | +1.5-115 | 157.5-105 | 157.5-115 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -1.5-105 | +1.5-115 | 157-110 | 157-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -1.5-114 | +1.5-112 | 156.5-115 | 156.5-110 | +104 | -132 |
| BetUSBetUS | -1.5-105 | +1.5-115 | 157-110 | 157-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -2-110 | +2-110 | 157-110 | 157-110 | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKingsDK | -2.5-118 | +2.5-102 | 157.5-105 | 157.5-115 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuelFD | -1.5-110 | +1.5-110 | 156.5-115 | 156.5-105 | +105 | -126 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -1.5-101 | +1.5-111 | 157-108 | 157-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MRSH -2.5 | MRSH -1.6 | BUF +0.9 |
| Total | 157.5 | 152.4 | Under 5.1 |
| Projected score | — | BUF 75.4 · MRSH 77 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MRSH -0.8 | — |
| 1H total | 71.3 | — |
| 1H projected score | BUF 35.2 · MRSH 36 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | |
| 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% | 9-1 90% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
30 games played
Straight up
15-15
50% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-14
53% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vs | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vs | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vs | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 11 | @ | W 63-53 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 17 | vs | L 70-72 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 21 | @ | W 86-82 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 24 | @ | L 85-99 | +15.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 28 | vs | L 70-75 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 3 | vs | W 72-67 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 6 | @ | L 78-99 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 177 |
| Mar 12 | vs | L 70-73 | +12.5 | W +9.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
USM
W 85-79
+2.5
7
vs
GB
W 83-76
+3.5
11
@
DEP
W 66-53
+31.5
18
vs
UVM
W 94-90
+5.5
24
vs
VMI
W 78-70
+2.5
26
vs
BUCK
W 73-71
−2.5
29
@
CAN
W 71-53
+8.5
6
vs
SBU
L 69-77
−2.5
9
@
UMBC
W 83-79
+0.5
14
@
ECU
L 70-73
−1.5
20
@
WMU
W 88-71
+14.5
31
@
NIU
W 81-67
+7.5
3
vs
BALL
W 85-72
+6.5
10
@
OHIO
L 80-91
−6.5
13
vs
KENT
L 81-87
−3.5
17
@
M-OH
L 102-105
+7.5
20
vs
AKR
L 63-82
−10.5
23
vs
MASS
L 67-68
−2.5
27
@
BGSU
W 89-78
+18.5
31
vs
OHIO
L 83-95
−14.5
3
vs
M-OH
L 71-73
+2.5
7
@
USA
L 69-81
−8.5
11
@
BALL
W 63-53
+11.5
17
vs
NIU
L 70-72
−11.5
21
@
MASS
W 86-82
+11.5
24
@
AKR
L 85-99
+1.5
28
vs
CMU
L 70-75
−10.5
3
vs
EMU
W 72-67
−0.5
6
@
TOL
L 78-99
−15.5
12
vs
AKR
L 70-73
+9.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
USM
W 85-79
+10.5
7
vs
GB
W 83-76
+11.5
11
@
DEP
W 66-53
−34.5
18
vs
UVM
W 94-90
+42.5
24
vs
VMI
W 78-70
−2.5
26
vs
BUCK
W 73-71
−2.5
29
@
CAN
W 71-53
−15.5
6
vs
SBU
L 69-77
+1.5
9
@
UMBC
W 83-79
+16.5
14
@
ECU
L 70-73
−3.5
20
@
WMU
W 88-71
+8.5
31
@
NIU
W 81-67
−4.5
3
vs
BALL
W 85-72
+11.5
10
@
OHIO
L 80-91
+14.5
13
vs
KENT
L 81-87
+2.5
17
@
M-OH
L 102-105
+44.5
20
vs
AKR
L 63-82
−21.5
23
vs
MASS
L 67-68
−24.5
27
@
BGSU
W 89-78
+16.5
31
vs
OHIO
L 83-95
+21.5
3
vs
M-OH
L 71-73
−21.5
7
@
USA
L 69-81
+4.5
11
@
BALL
W 63-53
−25.5
17
vs
NIU
L 70-72
−3.5
21
@
MASS
W 86-82
+16.5
24
@
AKR
L 85-99
+23.5
28
vs
CMU
L 70-75
−6.5
3
vs
EMU
W 72-67
−4.5
6
@
TOL
L 78-99
+21.5
12
vs
AKR
L 70-73
−15.5
over 16under 14avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Marshall
31 games played
Straight up
18-13
58% wins
Against the spread
10-21
32% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-12
61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | W 78-72 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | @ | W 85-73 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 12 | vs | W 96-89 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 15 | @ | L 78-104 | +20.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 20 | vs | W 98-70 | -20.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 23 | vs | W 69-60 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 26 | vs | L 67-90 | -7.5 | L −30.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 3 | @ | L 69-70 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 6 | @ | L 81-88 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 10 | vs | W 77-61 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 13 | vs | W 76-74 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 20 | @ | L 63-70 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vs | W 84-80 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | vs | W 88-81 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 7 | @ | W 66-64 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 73-81 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 14 | vs | L 83-85 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 77-72 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 22 | vs | W 115-60 | -18.5 | W +36.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 28 | @ | L 68-72 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 31 | @ | W 70-61 | +3.5 | W +12.5 | 165.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 4 | vs | W 81-77 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 74-90 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 11 | @ | W 81-79 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 14 | @ | L 87-101 | -2.5 | L −16.5 | 162.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 16 | vs | W 84-80 | -6.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 19 | @ | W 94-93 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | O 187 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 75-79 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 24 | vs | W 97-88 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 185 |
| Feb 27 | vs | L 82-99 | -7.5 | L −24.5 | 168.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 8 | vs | L 78-82 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
MASS
W 78-72
+10.5
8
@
TOL
W 85-73
+14.5
12
vs
ELON
W 96-89
−1.5
15
@
UVA
L 78-104
−5.5
20
vs
UAPB
W 98-70
+7.5
23
vs
MERC
W 69-60
−2.5
26
vs
LIP
L 67-90
−30.5
3
@
UNCW
L 69-70
+7.5
6
@
OHIO
L 81-88
−3.5
10
vs
WKU
W 77-61
+14.5
13
vs
WRST
W 76-74
−1.5
20
@
TROY
L 63-70
−2.5
31
vs
GAST
W 84-80
−9.5
3
vs
APP
W 88-81
−0.5
7
@
JMU
W 66-64
+3.5
10
@
GAST
L 73-81
−12.5
14
vs
CCU
L 83-85
−11.5
17
vs
JMU
W 77-72
−1.5
22
vs
ULM
W 115-60
+36.5
28
@
TXST
L 68-72
−7.5
31
@
ARST
W 70-61
+12.5
4
vs
USM
W 81-77
−6.5
7
vs
M-OH
L 74-90
−14.5
11
@
ODU
W 81-79
−1.5
14
@
GASO
L 87-101
−16.5
16
vs
USA
W 84-80
−2.5
19
@
APP
W 94-93
+4.5
21
@
CCU
L 75-79
−6.5
24
vs
ODU
W 97-88
+1.5
27
vs
GASO
L 82-99
−24.5
8
vs
GASO
L 78-82
−6.5
covered 10didn’t cover 21avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
MASS
W 78-72
−2.5
8
@
TOL
W 85-73
−2.5
12
vs
ELON
W 96-89
+29.5
15
@
UVA
L 78-104
+26.5
20
vs
UAPB
W 98-70
+3.5
23
vs
MERC
W 69-60
−18.5
26
vs
LIP
L 67-90
−0.5
3
@
UNCW
L 69-70
−11.5
6
@
OHIO
L 81-88
+11.5
10
vs
WKU
W 77-61
−21.5
13
vs
WRST
W 76-74
+0.5
20
@
TROY
L 63-70
−22.5
31
vs
GAST
W 84-80
+12.5
3
vs
APP
W 88-81
+27.5
7
@
JMU
W 66-64
−22.5
10
@
GAST
L 73-81
+0.5
14
vs
CCU
L 83-85
+16.5
17
vs
JMU
W 77-72
−0.5
22
vs
ULM
W 115-60
+14.5
28
@
TXST
L 68-72
−7.5
31
@
ARST
W 70-61
−34.5
4
vs
USM
W 81-77
+9.5
7
vs
M-OH
L 74-90
+1.5
11
@
ODU
W 81-79
+4.5
14
@
GASO
L 87-101
+25.5
16
vs
USA
W 84-80
+13.5
19
@
APP
W 94-93
+43.5
21
@
CCU
L 75-79
+0.5
24
vs
ODU
W 97-88
+25.5
27
vs
GASO
L 82-99
+12.5
8
vs
GASO
L 78-82
−6.5
over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo has the better starters
Position by position: Buffalo 2, Marshall 1, even 2
BuffaloBetterMarshall
G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 39
=Even
G N. Otshudi14.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 45
G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 15
→MRSHSmall
G F. Oshodi TR8.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 47
G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 55
←BUFBig
G L. Rasmussen TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 15
F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 30
=Even
G D. Johnson TR2.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 17
F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 75
←BUFBig
F E. Harding3.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 11
BuffaloBetterMarshall
BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6
←BUFSmall
MRSH defense277th of 366 · -7.0
BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7
→MRSHSmall
MRSH offense198th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
=Even
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
←BUFSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
→MRSHSmall
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBUF betterMRSH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew
Guards
N. Otshudi32 minF. Oshodi20 min · TRL. Rasmussen15 min · TRD. Johnson15 min · TRB. Slay8 minE. Manyuon2 min · TR
Forwards
E. Harding14 minC. Langdon3 min · TRV. Kuridza2 min · TRB. DjigoNew
Centers
K. Maker6 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 77.5 #106 | Points per game | 80.5 #56 |
| 1.14 #73 | Points per possession | 1.14 #71 |
| 68.2 #219 | Pace (possessions) | 70.7 #86 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.4 #30 | Effective FG% | 54.8 #42 |
| 37.9 #20 | 3-point % | 36.8 #34 |
| 45.5 #57 | 3-point attempt rate | 44.3 #82 |
| 39.6 #65 | Free throw rate | 29.2 #328 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.2 #152 | Turnover rate | 16.6 #172 |
| 27.1 #291 | Offensive rebound rate | 31.9 #127 |
| 14.1 #138 | Assists per game | 16.2 #43 |
| Defense | ||
| 77.0 #244 | Points allowed | 78.9 #292 |
| 1.13 #279 | Points allowed per possession | 1.11 #253 |
| 55.1 #333 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.3 #118 |
| 35.1 #252 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.6 #162 |
| 17.8 #105 | Turnovers forced | 16.2 #206 |
| 68.9 #209 | Defensive rebound rate | 66.2 #316 |
| 7.6 #72 | Steals per game | 6.1 #225 |
| 2.8 #262 | Blocks per game | 4.8 #23 |
Buffalo
15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Akron70–73
- L@ Toledo78–99
- Wvs E Michigan72–67
- Lvs C Michigan70–75
- L@ Akron85–99
A week or more of rest.
Marshall
18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs GA Southern78–82
- Lvs GA Southern82–99
- Wvs Old Dominion97–88
- L@ Coastal75–79
- W@ App State94–93
A week or more of rest.