Cam Henderson Center · at Marshall
#237BUFBuffalo
@
#230MRSHMarshall
LineMRSH -2.5no move
Total157.5up 1 from 156.5
Season records: Buffalo and Marshall
BUFThis seasonMRSH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRSH 77–75 · win probability MRSH 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MRSH -2.5
no move since the open
Total
157.5
model 152.4 · Under by 5
Model edge
BUF by 1
model vs market
Public on the spread
53% MRSH
56% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BUF 3, MRSH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BUFBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: BUF 39.6, MRSH 29.2. Allowed: BUF 31.4, MRSH 41.1
MRSHSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1; MRSH 54.8 and allows 50.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BUF plays 68.2 a game (219th fastest), MRSH 70.7 (86th). Faster games mean more points
BUFSmall
BUF offense vs MRSH defense
Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 277th, on the model’s ratings
BUFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BUF 16.2%, MRSH 16.6%. Forced: BUF 17.8%, MRSH 16.2%
MRSHSmall
MRSH offense vs BUF defense
Offense 198th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings
MRSHSmall
Home court
MRSH at home. This season: MRSH 0-0 at home, BUF 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%; MRSH hits 36.8% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 45.5% and 44.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BUF has played the 198th-hardest schedule, MRSH the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BUF 8%, MRSH 27%. Transfers in: BUF 7, MRSH 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BUF 27.1%, MRSH 31.9%. Defensive: BUF 68.9%, MRSH 66.2%

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of under 3193856%51%49%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +105 · MRSH -132
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MRSH -2.5 · now MRSH -1.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel MRSH -1.5 matches the line
Opened 156.5 · now 157 · moved 0.5 upmodel 152.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
BUF +2.5SpreadMRSH -2.5
Bets
Money
Over 157.5TotalUnder 157.5
Bets
Money
BUFWinnerMRSH
Bets
Money
Money is 21 pts ahead of bets on MRSH

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
BUFMRSHOverUnderBUFMRSH
BetMGMMGM-1.5-105+1.5-115157.5-105157.5-115+110-135
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-1.5-105+1.5-115157-110157-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-1.5-114+1.5-112156.5-115156.5-110+104-132
BetUSBetUS-1.5-105+1.5-115157-110157-110——
BovadaBovada-2-110+2-110157-110157-110+105-125
DraftKingsDK-2.5-118+2.5-102157.5-105157.5-115+114-135
FanDuelFD-1.5-110+1.5-110156.5-115156.5-105+105-126
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-1.5-101+1.5-111157-108157-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMRSH -2.5MRSH -1.6BUF +0.9
Total157.5152.4Under 5.1
Projected score—BUF 75.4 · MRSH 77

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMRSH -0.8—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreBUF 35.2 · MRSH 36—

Buffalo has the better starters

Position by position: Buffalo 2, Marshall 1, even 2
BuffaloBetterMarshall
G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 39
Even
G N. Otshudi14.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 45
G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15
MRSHSmall
G F. Oshodi TR8.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 55
BUFBig
G L. Rasmussen TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 15
F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30
Even
G D. Johnson TR2.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 17
F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 75
BUFBig
F E. Harding3.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11
BuffaloBetterMarshall
BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6
BUFSmall
MRSH defense277th of 366 · -7.0
BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7
MRSHSmall
MRSH offense198th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
BUFSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
MRSHSmall
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBUF betterMRSH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Buffalo
Guards
D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew
Marshall
Guards
N. Otshudi32 minF. Oshodi20 min · TRL. Rasmussen15 min · TRD. Johnson15 min · TRB. Slay8 minE. Manyuon2 min · TR
Forwards
E. Harding14 minC. Langdon3 min · TRV. Kuridza2 min · TRB. DjigoNew
Centers
K. Maker6 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BUFMRSH
Scoring
77.5 #106Points per game80.5 #56
1.14 #73Points per possession1.14 #71
68.2 #219Pace (possessions)70.7 #86
Shooting
55.4 #30Effective FG%54.8 #42
37.9 #203-point %36.8 #34
45.5 #573-point attempt rate44.3 #82
39.6 #65Free throw rate29.2 #328
Possessions
16.2 #152Turnover rate16.6 #172
27.1 #291Offensive rebound rate31.9 #127
14.1 #138Assists per game16.2 #43
Defense
77.0 #244Points allowed78.9 #292
1.13 #279Points allowed per possession1.11 #253
55.1 #333Opponent effective FG%50.3 #118
35.1 #252Opponent 3-point %33.6 #162
17.8 #105Turnovers forced16.2 #206
68.9 #209Defensive rebound rate66.2 #316
7.6 #72Steals per game6.1 #225
2.8 #262Blocks per game4.8 #23

Buffalo

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Akron70–73
  • L@ Toledo78–99
  • Wvs E Michigan72–67
  • Lvs C Michigan70–75
  • L@ Akron85–99

A week or more of rest.

Marshall

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern78–82
  • Lvs GA Southern82–99
  • Wvs Old Dominion97–88
  • L@ Coastal75–79
  • W@ App State94–93

A week or more of rest.