1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. LR @ VCU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Little Rock Trojans at VCU Rams

Siegel Center · at VCU
#222LRLittle Rock
@
#61VCUVCU
LineVCU -19.5moved 1 toward LR
Total154.5up 1 from 153.5
LRThis seasonVCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 85–64 · win probability VCU 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
VCU -19.5
moved 1 toward LR
Total
154.5
model 148.4 · Under by 6
Model edge
VCU by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

LR 0, VCU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LR has played the 347th-hardest schedule, VCU the 88th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VCUBig
LR offense vs VCU defense
Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings
VCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LR 49.4 and allows 51.8; VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0
VCUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LR 27.7, VCU 42.0. Allowed: LR 33.1, VCU 32.8
VCUBig
VCU offense vs LR defense
Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings
VCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LR 31.5%, VCU 31.6%. Defensive: LR 63.4%, VCU 70.0%
VCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LR 12%, VCU 65%. Transfers in: LR 8, VCU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
VCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LR 18.4%, VCU 15.1%. Forced: LR 18.6%, VCU 17.0%
VCUSmall
Three-pointers
LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%; VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 31.0% and 43.8% of their shots
VCUSmall
Home court
VCU at home. This season: VCU 0-0 at home, LR 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LR plays 67.6 a game (248th fastest), VCU 69.5 (147th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.599394%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread63293%49%53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward LR
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LR +1350 · VCU -3850
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened VCU -20.5 · now VCU -19 · moved 1.5 toward LRmodel VCU -20.5
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 148.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 154.5TotalUnder 154.5
Bets
Money
LRWinnerVCU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
LRVCUOverUnderLRVCU
BetMGMMGM-19.5-115+19.5-105153.5-115153.5-105+1250-3000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-19-105+19-115153.5-115153.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-20.5-113+20.5-113153.5-112153.5-114——
BetUSBetUS-19-105+19-115153.5-115153.5-105——
BovadaBovada-18.5-105+18.5-115154-105154-115+1300-6000
DraftKingsDK-18.5-105+18.5-115154.5-105154.5-115+1400-3200
FanDuelFD-19.5-115+19.5-105153.5-118153.5-104+1600-4500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-19-101+19-111153.5-113153.5-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadVCU -19.5VCU -20.7VCU +1.2
Total154.5148.4Under 6.1
Projected score—LR 63.9 · VCU 84.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVCU -12.2—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreLR 28.6 · VCU 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

VCU has the better starters

Position by position: Little Rock 0, VCU 2, even 3
Little RockBetterVCU
G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62
Even
G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61
G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46
VCUSmall
G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79
G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
VCUBig
G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80
Even
F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85
F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
Little RockBetterVCU
LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3
VCUBig
VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0
LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2
VCUBig
VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
VCUBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
VCUBig
Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players
Bench-2.3 · 4 players
VCUBig
Bench+3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLR betterVCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Little Rock
Guards
A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew
Forwards
B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew
VCU
Guards
N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min
Forwards
T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LRVCU
Scoring
68.9 #300Points per game80.8 #50
1.02 #306Points per possession1.16 #47
67.6 #248Pace (possessions)69.5 #147
Shooting
49.4 #273Effective FG%53.6 #78
35.3 #963-point %36.3 #46
31.0 #3393-point attempt rate43.8 #91
27.7 #345Free throw rate42.0 #30
Possessions
18.4 #292Turnover rate15.1 #70
31.5 #143Offensive rebound rate31.6 #139
13.4 #183Assists per game13.9 #158
Defense
74.2 #160Points allowed71.8 #100
1.10 #217Points allowed per possession1.04 #66
51.8 #199Opponent effective FG%49.0 #69
34.4 #211Opponent 3-point %33.0 #125
18.6 #71Turnovers forced17.0 #151
63.4 #357Defensive rebound rate70.0 #162
7.5 #77Steals per game7.3 #99
4.4 #45Blocks per game4.3 #50
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
  • Lvs Morehead St70–76
  • Lvs SE Missouri65–70
  • Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–76
  • Wvs North Carolina82–78
  • Wvs Dayton70–62
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
  • Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.