VCU Rams at Memphis Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 AM ETFedExForum · at Memphis

#61VCUVCU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: VCU and Memphis
VCU	This season	MEM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 79–77 · win probability VCU 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

VCU 7, MEM 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VCUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: VCU 42.0, MEM 34.7. Allowed: VCU 32.8, MEM 42.4

VCUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0; MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7

VCUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: VCU 65%, MEM 15%. Transfers in: VCU 4, MEM 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

VCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: VCU 15.1%, MEM 18.9%. Forced: VCU 17.0%, MEM 18.6%

VCUSmall

Three-pointers

VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 43.8% and 33.7% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: VCU plays 69.5 a game (147th fastest), MEM 71.9 (37th). Faster games mean more points

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 0-0 at home, VCU 0-0 away

VCUSmall

VCU offense vs MEM defense

Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings

VCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: VCU 31.6%, MEM 35.3%. Defensive: VCU 70.0%, MEM 64.3%

Even

MEM offense vs VCU defense

Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

VCU has played the 88th-hardest schedule, MEM the 81st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VCU -1.5	—
Total	—	155.5	—
Projected score	—	VCU 78.5 · MEM 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VCU -1.0	—
1H total	72.7	—
1H projected score	VCU 36.8 · MEM 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VCU LWWWL	18-18	50%	6-4	—
MEM LLWLL	14-18	44%	10-6	—

Venue/role: VCU away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
VCU UUUOU	16-20	44%	28-8
MEM OUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MEM	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

VCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs NJIT	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ SCU	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs PROV	No recent meeting

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ VAN	L70–77WU
Nov 15	vs LOU	L73–99LO
Nov 22	vs EVAN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VCU 0–2 MEMMEM leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings · VCU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2023-24	MEM 85 @ VCU 80	VCU +2.5	MEM W
Nov 20, 2022-23	VCU 47 @ MEM 62	MEM -9.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VCU

36 games played

Straight up

28-8

78% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-20

44% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-878%

W L W L W W L W W L W W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W L L W W W L W W L L W L L W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-2044%

O U U U O U O O U O U O O O O U O O U U U O U O U U O U O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWAG	W 103-74	-25.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	vsUSU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 12	vsSPU	W 78-61	-20.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 17	@NCSU	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsCOPP	W 101-58	-32.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 26	vsUSF	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsVAN	L 74-89	+6.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsVT	W 86-68	-2.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 154
Dec 5	vsSAM	W 83-57	-19.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 10	vsUNM	L 78-81	-8.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 15	vsNIA	W 84-58	-30.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 18	vsAMER	W 105-83	-19.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	vsRID	W 100-79	-30.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 31	vsSBU	W 89-82	-9.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 3	@DUQ	W 93-80	-5.5	W +7.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsSLU	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	171.5	U 133
Jan 10	@GMU	L 80-86	-1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 14	@URI	W 84-75	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 19	vsJOES	W 79-72	-14.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 24	@DAV	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 27	vsRICH	W 77-69	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 30	vsLUC	W 89-75	-18.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	@FOR	W 63-59	-7.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 122
Feb 6	vsDAY	W 99-73	-8.5	W +17.5	147.5	O 172
Feb 11	@LAS	W 77-68	-12.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@RICH	W 78-67	-7.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 17	vsGW	W 89-75	-6.5	W +7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 20	@SLU	L 75-88	+7.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 163
Feb 28	vsFOR	W 82-63	-12.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 3	vsGMU	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Mar 6	@DAY	W 68-62	+1.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsDUQ	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Mar 14	vsJOES	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 15	vsDAY	W 70-62	-3.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsUNC	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 160
Mar 21	vsILL	L 55-76	+12.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+3.5

USU

L 77-80

−0.5

SPU

W 78-61

−3.5

NCSU

L 79-85

+5.5

COPP

W 101-58

+10.5

USF

W 78-66

+10.5

VAN

L 74-89

−8.5

W 86-68

+15.5

SAM

W 83-57

+6.5

UNM

L 78-81

−11.5

NIA

W 84-58

−4.5

AMER

W 105-83

+2.5

RID

W 100-79

−9.5

SBU

W 89-82

−2.5

DUQ

W 93-80

+7.5

SLU

L 62-71

−10.5

GMU

L 80-86

−7.5

URI

W 84-75

+5.5

JOES

W 79-72

−7.5

DAV

W 75-69

+0.5

RICH

W 77-69

−4.5

LUC

W 89-75

−4.5

FOR

W 63-59

−3.5

DAY

W 99-73

+17.5

LAS

W 77-68

−3.5

RICH

W 78-67

+3.5

W 89-75

+7.5

SLU

L 75-88

−5.5

FOR

W 82-63

+6.5

GMU

W 70-65

−4.5

DAY

W 68-62

+7.5

DUQ

W 71-66

−1.5

JOES

W 77-64

+6.5

DAY

W 70-62

+4.5

UNC

W 82-78

+6.5

ILL

L 55-76

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAG

W 103-74

+43.5

USU

L 77-80

−6.5

SPU

W 78-61

−8.5

NCSU

L 79-85

−0.5

COPP

W 101-58

+7.5

USF

W 78-66

−28.5

VAN

L 74-89

+1.5

W 86-68

+0.5

SAM

W 83-57

−14.5

UNM

L 78-81

+1.5

NIA

W 84-58

−1.5

AMER

W 105-83

+33.5

RID

W 100-79

+33.5

SBU

W 89-82

+13.5

DUQ

W 93-80

+7.5

SLU

L 62-71

−38.5

GMU

L 80-86

+21.5

URI

W 84-75

+11.5

JOES

W 79-72

−0.5

DAV

W 75-69

−4.5

RICH

W 77-69

−9.5

LUC

W 89-75

+13.5

FOR

W 63-59

−24.5

DAY

W 99-73

+24.5

LAS

W 77-68

−2.5

RICH

W 78-67

−9.5

W 89-75

+2.5

SLU

L 75-88

−1.5

FOR

W 82-63

+0.5

GMU

W 70-65

−12.5

DAY

W 68-62

−16.5

DUQ

W 71-66

−16.5

JOES

W 77-64

−4.5

DAY

W 70-62

−7.5

UNC

W 82-78

+9.5

ILL

L 55-76

−20.5

over 16under 20avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Memphis

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L L L L W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W W W W W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O O U U U O U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsSIU	W 74-58	-10.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 3	vsNOLA	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsBAY	W 78-71	+3.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 149
Dec 13	@LOU	L 73-99	+16.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsVAN	L 70-77	+9.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 20	@MSST	L 66-71	+3.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 22	vsALST	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 31	vsUNT	W 57-48	-9.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 3	@RICE	W 76-70	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 11	@FAU	L 78-89	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsTEM	W 55-53	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 108
Jan 18	vsUTSA	W 95-69	-20.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@TLSA	L 66-83	+6.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WICH	L 59-74	+3.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsFAU	W 92-65	-3.5	W +23.5	152.5	O 157
Feb 1	vsTULN	L 76-78	-8.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 5	@UAB	W 90-80	+1.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 170
Feb 8	vsCLT	W 77-54	-10.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 131
Feb 12	@UNT	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 14	@USU	L 75-99	+13.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 19	@USF	L 66-87	+9.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 22	vsUAB	L 67-78	-5.5	L −16.5	152.5	U 145
Feb 26	vsWICH	L 82-88	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@ECU	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsUSF	L 89-96	+7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	@TULN	W 96-95	-2.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsTULN	L 69-81	-4.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

SIU

W 74-58

+5.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+1.5

BAY

W 78-71

+10.5

LOU

L 73-99

−9.5

VAN

L 70-77

+2.5

MSST

L 66-71

−1.5

ALST

W 88-67

+0.5

UNT

W 57-48

−0.5

RICE

W 76-70

−1.5

FAU

L 78-89

−9.5

TEM

W 55-53

−5.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+5.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−10.5

WICH

L 59-74

−11.5

FAU

W 92-65

+23.5

TULN

L 76-78

−10.5

UAB

W 90-80

+11.5

CLT

W 77-54

+12.5

UNT

L 69-76

−9.5

USU

L 75-99

−10.5

USF

L 66-87

−11.5

UAB

L 67-78

−16.5

WICH

L 82-88

−7.5

ECU

L 68-84

−20.5

USF

L 89-96

+0.5

TULN

W 96-95

−1.5

TULN

L 69-81

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

SIU

W 74-58

−24.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+6.5

BAY

W 78-71

−9.5

LOU

L 73-99

+9.5

VAN

L 70-77

−12.5

MSST

L 66-71

−16.5

ALST

W 88-67

+3.5

UNT

W 57-48

−32.5

RICE

W 76-70

+1.5

FAU

L 78-89

+14.5

TEM

W 55-53

−35.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+16.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−4.5

WICH

L 59-74

−12.5

FAU

W 92-65

+4.5

TULN

L 76-78

+2.5

UAB

W 90-80

+14.5

CLT

W 77-54

−13.5

UNT

L 69-76

+6.5

USU

L 75-99

+18.5

USF

L 66-87

−10.5

UAB

L 67-78

−7.5

WICH

L 82-88

+20.5

ECU

L 68-84

−0.5

USF

L 89-96

+21.5

TULN

W 96-95

+36.5

TULN

L 69-81

−1.5

over 16under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: VCU 1, Memphis 1, even 3

VCUBetterMemphis

G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61

MEMSmall

G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80

G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79

Even

G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84

G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

Even

G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83

F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85

Even

F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

VCUSmall

F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68

VCUBetterMemphis

VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0

Even

MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5

VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0

Even

MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

MEMSmall

Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players

VCUSmall

Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Bench+3.2 · 5 players

MEMSmall

Bench+4.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestVCU betterMEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

VCU

Guards

N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min

Forwards

T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew

Memphis

Guards

L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew

Forwards

T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

VCU80.8 #50

MEM75.2 #158

Points per possession

VCU1.16 #47

MEM1.04 #264

Pace (possessions)

VCU69.5 #147

MEM71.9 #37

Shooting

Effective FG%

VCU53.6 #78

MEM48.7 #298

3-point %

VCU36.3 #46

MEM31.6 #303

3-point attempt rate

VCU43.8 #91

MEM33.7 #305

Free throw rate

VCU42.0 #30

MEM34.7 #190

Possessions

Turnover rate

VCU15.1 #70

MEM18.9 #316

Offensive rebound rate

VCU31.6 #139

MEM35.3 #41

Assists per game

VCU13.9 #158

MEM13.3 #193

Defense

Points allowed

VCU71.8 #100

MEM76.6 #234

Points allowed per possession

VCU1.04 #66

MEM1.07 #124

Opponent effective FG%

VCU49.0 #69

MEM48.7 #55

Opponent 3-point %

VCU33.0 #125

MEM30.6 #22

Turnovers forced

VCU17.0 #151

MEM18.6 #69

Defensive rebound rate

VCU70.0 #162

MEM64.3 #350

Steals per game

VCU7.3 #99

MEM8.4 #19

Blocks per game

VCU4.3 #50

MEM4.3 #49

VCU		MEM
Scoring
80.8 #50	Points per game	75.2 #158
1.16 #47	Points per possession	1.04 #264
69.5 #147	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #37
Shooting
53.6 #78	Effective FG%	48.7 #298
36.3 #46	3-point %	31.6 #303
43.8 #91	3-point attempt rate	33.7 #305
42.0 #30	Free throw rate	34.7 #190
Possessions
15.1 #70	Turnover rate	18.9 #316
31.6 #139	Offensive rebound rate	35.3 #41
13.9 #158	Assists per game	13.3 #193
Defense
71.8 #100	Points allowed	76.6 #234
1.04 #66	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #124
49.0 #69	Opponent effective FG%	48.7 #55
33.0 #125	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #22
17.0 #151	Turnovers forced	18.6 #69
70.0 #162	Defensive rebound rate	64.3 #350
7.3 #99	Steals per game	8.4 #19
4.3 #50	Blocks per game	4.3 #49

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–76
Wvs North Carolina82–78
Wvs Dayton70–62
Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulane69–81
W@ Tulane96–95
Lvs South Florida89–96
L@ East Carolina68–84
Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

VCU Rams at Memphis Tigers

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

VCU

Memphis

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

VCU

Memphis