SE Louisiana Lions at Little Rock Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ETJack Stephens Center · at Little Rock

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Louisiana and Little Rock
SELA	This season	LR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LR 72–68 · win probability LR 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

SELA 2, LR 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LRBig

Three-pointers

SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%; LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 39.5% and 31.0% of their shots

LRSmall

SELA offense vs LR defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SELA has played the 276th-hardest schedule, LR the 347th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SELASmall

LR offense vs SELA defense

Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

SELASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SELA 40.3, LR 27.7. Allowed: SELA 41.2, LR 33.1

LRSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4; LR 49.4 and allows 51.8

LRSmall

Home court

LR at home. This season: LR 0-0 at home, SELA 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: SELA plays 65.9 a game (318th fastest), LR 67.6 (248th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SELA 28.6%, LR 31.5%. Defensive: SELA 68.6%, LR 63.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SELA 4%, LR 12%. Transfers in: SELA 10, LR 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SELA 18.4%, LR 18.4%. Forced: SELA 19.1%, LR 18.6%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LR -4.3	—
Total	—	140.0	—
Projected score	—	SELA 67.9 · LR 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LR -2.4	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	SELA 31.6 · LR 34	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	7-10	—
LR WLLWL	12-18	40%	4-7	—

Venue/role: SELA away; LR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22
LR UUOOU	15-15	50%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
LR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ MISS	L58–88LO
Nov 16	@ TA&M	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ KENN	L68–72WU

Little Rock

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ UNM	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs NWST	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ JAX	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Little Rock

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L W L L W L L L L W W L W W W L W L L W L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U O U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 29	@SIU	L 65-74	+13.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@CARK	L 47-85	+3.5	L −34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 6	vsARST	L 78-90	+9.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 9	@WVU	L 58-90	+27.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 16	@MORE	L 64-78	+2.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 142
Dec 18	@USI	W 77-62	-2.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 1	vsTNTC	W 77-58	-1.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsTNST	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@SIUE	W 73-70	+3.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 10	@LIN	W 82-74	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsEIU	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 17	vsWIU	W 86-79	-10.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@SEMO	L 65-70	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@TNST	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TNTC	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 3	@UTM	L 52-55	+6.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 107
Feb 5	vsLIN	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 7	vsSIUE	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	@WIU	W 77-58	-7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 14	@EIU	L 72-78	-2.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsUTM	W 67-65	+2.5	W +4.5	136.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsSEMO	L 65-70	+1.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsMORE	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 146
Feb 28	vsUSI	W 89-70	-5.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsLIN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

SIU

L 65-74

+4.5

CARK

L 47-85

−34.5

ARST

L 78-90

−2.5

WVU

L 58-90

−4.5

L 64-78

−11.5

USI

W 77-62

+12.5

TNTC

W 77-58

+17.5

TNST

L 79-84

−3.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+6.5

LIN

W 82-74

+14.5

EIU

W 74-63

+4.5

WIU

W 86-79

−3.5

SEMO

L 65-70

+0.5

TNST

L 63-70

−2.5

TNTC

L 77-87

−11.5

UTM

L 52-55

+3.5

LIN

L 74-79

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 77-58

+11.5

EIU

L 72-78

−8.5

UTM

W 67-65

+4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−3.5

L 70-76

−8.5

USI

W 89-70

+13.5

LIN

L 62-72

−4.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

SIU

L 65-74

−2.5

CARK

L 47-85

−6.5

ARST

L 78-90

+20.5

WVU

L 58-90

+15.5

L 64-78

+5.5

USI

W 77-62

−1.5

TNTC

W 77-58

−9.5

TNST

L 79-84

+18.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+11.5

LIN

W 82-74

+6.5

EIU

W 74-63

+3.5

WIU

W 86-79

+29.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−10.5

TNST

L 63-70

−17.5

TNTC

L 77-87

+22.5

UTM

L 52-55

−32.5

LIN

L 74-79

+3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−0.5

WIU

W 77-58

−6.5

EIU

L 72-78

+15.5

UTM

W 67-65

−4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−8.5

L 70-76

+7.5

USI

W 89-70

+19.5

LIN

L 62-72

−14.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Little Rock has the better starters

Position by position: SE Louisiana 0, Little Rock 3, even 2

SE LouisianaBetterLittle Rock

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

Even

G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

LRSmall

G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

LRSmall

G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

LRSmall

F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

No call

F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked

SE LouisianaBetterLittle Rock

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

LRSmall

LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

SELASmall

LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

LRBig

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

LRSmall

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSELA betterLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

Little Rock

Guards

A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew

Forwards

B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SELA64.8 #350

LR68.9 #300

Points per possession

SELA0.98 #339

LR1.02 #306

Pace (possessions)

SELA65.9 #318

LR67.6 #248

Shooting

Effective FG%

SELA46.7 #343

LR49.4 #273

3-point %

SELA28.4 #362

LR35.3 #96

3-point attempt rate

SELA39.5 #183

LR31.0 #339

Free throw rate

SELA40.3 #56

LR27.7 #345

Possessions

Turnover rate

SELA18.4 #291

LR18.4 #292

Offensive rebound rate

SELA28.6 #245

LR31.5 #143

Assists per game

SELA11.4 #319

LR13.4 #183

Defense

Points allowed

SELA71.3 #86

LR74.2 #160

Points allowed per possession

SELA1.08 #172

LR1.10 #217

Opponent effective FG%

SELA52.4 #233

LR51.8 #199

Opponent 3-point %

SELA36.0 #301

LR34.4 #211

Turnovers forced

SELA19.1 #47

LR18.6 #71

Defensive rebound rate

SELA68.6 #225

LR63.4 #357

Steals per game

SELA6.8 #145

LR7.5 #77

Blocks per game

SELA2.7 #272

LR4.4 #45

SELA		LR
Scoring
64.8 #350	Points per game	68.9 #300
0.98 #339	Points per possession	1.02 #306
65.9 #318	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #248
Shooting
46.7 #343	Effective FG%	49.4 #273
28.4 #362	3-point %	35.3 #96
39.5 #183	3-point attempt rate	31.0 #339
40.3 #56	Free throw rate	27.7 #345
Possessions
18.4 #291	Turnover rate	18.4 #292
28.6 #245	Offensive rebound rate	31.5 #143
11.4 #319	Assists per game	13.4 #183
Defense
71.3 #86	Points allowed	74.2 #160
1.08 #172	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #217
52.4 #233	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #199
36.0 #301	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #211
19.1 #47	Turnovers forced	18.6 #71
68.6 #225	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #357
6.8 #145	Steals per game	7.5 #77
2.7 #272	Blocks per game	4.4 #45

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
Lvs Morehead St70–76
Lvs SE Missouri65–70
Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana Lions at Little Rock Trojans

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Little Rock

Little Rock has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Louisiana

Little Rock