SE Louisiana Lions at Ole Miss Rebels: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 12:00 AM ETThe Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Louisiana and Ole Miss
SELA	This season	MISS
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 83–60 · win probability MISS 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

SELA 1, MISS 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MISSBig

SELA offense vs MISS defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SELA has played the 276th-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MISSBig

Three-pointers

SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 39.5% and 35.5% of their shots

MISSBig

MISS offense vs SELA defense

Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

MISSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5

SELASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SELA 40.3, MISS 33.0. Allowed: SELA 41.2, MISS 41.2

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SELA plays 65.9 a game (318th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points

MISSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SELA 18.4%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: SELA 19.1%, MISS 16.5%

MISSSmall

Home court

MISS at home. This season: MISS 0-0 at home, SELA 0-0 away

MISSSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SELA 4%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: SELA 10, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SELA 28.6%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: SELA 68.6%, MISS 67.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MISS -23.5	—
Total	—	142.7	—
Projected score	—	SELA 59.6 · MISS 83.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MISS -13.8	—
1H total	66.8	—
1H projected score	SELA 26.5 · MISS 40.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	7-10	—
MISS LWWWW	15-20	43%	4-12	—

Venue/role: SELA away; MISS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22
MISS UUUUO	20-15	57%	15-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MISS	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ TA&M	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ KENN	L68–72WU
Nov 24	vs UNCO	No recent meeting

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs NICH	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs CLEM	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ VT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SELA 0–1 MISSMISS leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SELA 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 3, 2025-26	SELA 58 @ MISS 88	MISS -21.5	MISS W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ole Miss

35 games played

Straight up

15-20

43% wins

Against the spread

15-20

43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-2043%

W W W W W L L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-2043%

W L L L L L L L W L L L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1557%

O O O O U O O U U U O U U O O O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSELA	W 88-58	-21.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsULM	W 86-65	-37.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 11	vsMEM	W 83-77	-9.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsCSUB	W 82-60	-23.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsAPSU	W 72-65	-20.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsIOWA	L 69-74	+4.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsUTAH	L 74-75	-10.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	vsMIA	L 66-75	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 6	@SJU	L 58-63	+13.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsUSM	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsAAMU	W 80-66	-20.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsNCSU	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 29	vsALCN	W 79-43	-28.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@OU	L 70-86	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	vsARK	L 87-94	+3.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 10	vsMIZ	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 145
Jan 14	@UGA	W 97-95	+10.5	W +12.5	158.5	O 192
Jan 17	@MSST	W 68-67	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 20	vsAUB	L 66-78	+3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 24	@UK	L 63-72	+11.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 31	@VAN	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 3	@TENN	L 66-84	+12.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 150
Feb 7	@TEX	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	vsALA	L 74-93	+6.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsMSST	L 78-90	-3.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	@TA&M	L 77-80	+9.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 21	vsFLA	L 75-94	+13.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	vsLSU	L 99-106	-2.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	@AUB	W 85-79	+10.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 164
Mar 3	vsVAN	L 86-89	+7.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	vsSC	L 61-64	-7.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsTEX	W 76-66	+5.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 142
Mar 12	vsUGA	W 76-72	+5.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 13	vsALA	W 80-79	+12.5	W +13.5	166.5	U 159
Mar 14	vsARK	L 90-93	+8.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+8.5

ULM

W 86-65

−16.5

MEM

W 83-77

−3.5

CSUB

W 82-60

−1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−13.5

IOWA

L 69-74

−0.5

UTAH

L 74-75

−11.5

MIA

L 66-75

−10.5

SJU

L 58-63

+8.5

USM

W 71-67

−8.5

AAMU

W 80-66

−6.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−6.5

ALCN

W 79-43

+7.5

L 70-86

−9.5

ARK

L 87-94

−3.5

MIZ

W 76-69

+5.5

UGA

W 97-95

+12.5

MSST

W 68-67

+4.5

AUB

L 66-78

−8.5

L 63-72

+2.5

VAN

L 68-71

+7.5

TENN

L 66-84

−5.5

TEX

L 68-79

−1.5

ALA

L 74-93

−12.5

MSST

L 78-90

−15.5

TA&M

L 77-80

+6.5

FLA

L 75-94

−5.5

LSU

L 99-106

−9.5

AUB

W 85-79

+16.5

VAN

L 86-89

+4.5

L 61-64

−10.5

TEX

W 76-66

+15.5

UGA

W 76-72

+9.5

ALA

W 80-79

+13.5

ARK

L 90-93

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 20avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+2.5

ULM

W 86-65

+1.5

MEM

W 83-77

+7.5

CSUB

W 82-60

+1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−8.5

IOWA

L 69-74

+2.5

UTAH

L 74-75

+4.5

MIA

L 66-75

−4.5

SJU

L 58-63

−30.5

USM

W 71-67

−0.5

AAMU

W 80-66

+10.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−10.5

ALCN

W 79-43

−26.5

L 70-86

+9.5

ARK

L 87-94

+27.5

MIZ

W 76-69

+1.5

UGA

W 97-95

+33.5

MSST

W 68-67

−12.5

AUB

L 66-78

−7.5

L 63-72

−10.5

VAN

L 68-71

−10.5

TENN

L 66-84

+10.5

TEX

L 68-79

+1.5

ALA

L 74-93

+2.5

MSST

L 78-90

+21.5

TA&M

L 77-80

−0.5

FLA

L 75-94

+16.5

LSU

L 99-106

+57.5

AUB

W 85-79

+10.5

VAN

L 86-89

+19.5

L 61-64

−22.5

TEX

W 76-66

−5.5

UGA

W 76-72

−8.5

ALA

W 80-79

−7.5

ARK

L 90-93

+23.5

over 20under 15avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: SE Louisiana 0, Ole Miss 5, even 0

SE LouisianaBetterOle Miss

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

MISSSmall

G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

MISSBig

G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

MISSBig

G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

MISSSmall

F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

MISSBig

F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77

SE LouisianaBetterOle Miss

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

MISSBig

MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

MISSBig

MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

MISSBig

Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

MISSBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

MISSBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSELA betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

Ole Miss

Guards

C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew

Forwards

D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew

Centers

M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SELA64.8 #350

MISS75.9 #145

Points per possession

SELA0.98 #339

MISS1.09 #157

Pace (possessions)

SELA65.9 #318

MISS69.5 #145

Shooting

Effective FG%

SELA46.7 #343

MISS50.5 #217

3-point %

SELA28.4 #362

MISS33.2 #221

3-point attempt rate

SELA39.5 #183

MISS35.5 #258

Free throw rate

SELA40.3 #56

MISS33.0 #238

Possessions

Turnover rate

SELA18.4 #291

MISS14.0 #23

Offensive rebound rate

SELA28.6 #245

MISS28.3 #253

Assists per game

SELA11.4 #319

MISS13.5 #178

Defense

Points allowed

SELA71.3 #86

MISS76.1 #219

Points allowed per possession

SELA1.08 #172

MISS1.10 #215

Opponent effective FG%

SELA52.4 #233

MISS50.5 #127

Opponent 3-point %

SELA36.0 #301

MISS33.5 #151

Turnovers forced

SELA19.1 #47

MISS16.5 #190

Defensive rebound rate

SELA68.6 #225

MISS67.4 #285

Steals per game

SELA6.8 #145

MISS7.1 #118

Blocks per game

SELA2.7 #272

MISS4.3 #48

SELA		MISS
Scoring
64.8 #350	Points per game	75.9 #145
0.98 #339	Points per possession	1.09 #157
65.9 #318	Pace (possessions)	69.5 #145
Shooting
46.7 #343	Effective FG%	50.5 #217
28.4 #362	3-point %	33.2 #221
39.5 #183	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #258
40.3 #56	Free throw rate	33.0 #238
Possessions
18.4 #291	Turnover rate	14.0 #23
28.6 #245	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #253
11.4 #319	Assists per game	13.5 #178
Defense
71.3 #86	Points allowed	76.1 #219
1.08 #172	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #215
52.4 #233	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #127
36.0 #301	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #151
19.1 #47	Turnovers forced	16.5 #190
68.6 #225	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #285
6.8 #145	Steals per game	7.1 #118
2.7 #272	Blocks per game	4.3 #48

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas90–93
Wvs Alabama80–79
Wvs Georgia76–72
Wvs Texas76–66
Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana Lions at Ole Miss Rebels

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Ole Miss

Ole Miss has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Louisiana

Ole Miss