Harvard Crimson at Northeastern Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 12:00 AM ETCabot Center · at Northeastern

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Harvard and Northeastern
HARV	This season	NE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HARV 74–71 · win probability HARV 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

HARV 6, NE 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HARVBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HARV 25.7, NE 29.4. Allowed: HARV 26.6, NE 41.9

HARVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4; NE 52.4 and allows 56.4

HARVBig

Three-pointers

HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%; NE hits 33.7% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 40.2% and 37.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: HARV plays 64.7 a game (350th fastest), NE 69.9 (120th). Faster games mean more points

HARVSmall

NE offense vs HARV defense

Offense 194th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings

HARVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HARV 81%, NE 43%. Transfers in: HARV 0, NE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NESmall

Home court

NE at home. This season: NE 0-0 at home, HARV 0-0 away

HARVSmall

HARV offense vs NE defense

Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 263rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HARV 26.8%, NE 27.3%. Defensive: HARV 71.8%, NE 69.8%

Context

Schedule so far

HARV has played the 153rd-hardest schedule, NE the 185th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HARV 17.5%, NE 16.3%. Forced: HARV 17.1%, NE 16.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HARV -3.4	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	HARV 73.9 · NE 70.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -2.1	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	HARV 34.9 · NE 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV WLLWL	14-14	50%	10-5	—
NE WLLWL	11-20	35%	2-10	—

Venue/role: HARV away; NE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV UUUOU	10-18	36%	16-12
NE UUOOO	20-11	65%	7-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
NE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Harvard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ GW	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ AMER	L55–67LU
Nov 18	vs BC	L60–73LU

Northeastern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs YALE	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ BTLR	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ STO	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HARV 3–2 NEHARV leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · NE has won the last 2 meetings · HARV 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	NE 77 @ HARV 60	HARV -5.5	NE W
Nov 13, 2024-25	HARV 56 @ NE 78	NE -2.5	NE W
Nov 14, 2023-24	NE 56 @ HARV 80	HARV -4.5	HARV W
Nov 16, 2022-23	HARV 70 @ NE 69	NE +1.5	NE W
Nov 27, 2021-22	NE 57 @ HARV 77	HARV -2	HARV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-18

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1836%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsCOR	L 79-86	-1.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	@BRWN	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	@YALE	W 67-65	+11.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 132
Feb 7	@DART	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsBRWN	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	vsYALE	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 151
Feb 21	@COR	W 73-54	+4.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PRIN	W 58-56	-3.5	L −1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	@PENN	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsCOLU	W 81-71	-4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 152
Mar 14	vsPENN	L 60-62	-3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

COR

L 79-86

−8.5

BRWN

W 69-59

+8.5

YALE

W 67-65

+13.5

DART

W 71-58

+11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−4.5

YALE

L 75-76

+3.5

COR

W 73-54

+23.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−1.5

PENN

L 61-64

−1.5

COLU

W 81-71

+5.5

PENN

L 60-62

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

COR

L 79-86

+4.5

BRWN

W 69-59

−4.5

YALE

W 67-65

−9.5

DART

W 71-58

−11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−22.5

YALE

L 75-76

+12.5

COR

W 73-54

−28.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−16.5

PENN

L 61-64

−13.5

COLU

W 81-71

+15.5

PENN

L 60-62

−17.5

over 10under 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northeastern

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L W W L L W L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W W L L W W L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U U O U O O U U O O O O O O O O O O O O U U U U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 20	@PRIN	L 57-70	+2.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 22	vsDUQ	W 93-86	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 179
Nov 28	@WAKE	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 3	@HC	L 59-76	-8.5	L −25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCCSU	W 73-56	-1.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 129
Dec 20	@SYR	L 83-91	+14.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	@URI	L 77-85	+10.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 29	@ELON	L 91-103	+4.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 194
Dec 31	@NCAT	W 85-74	-3.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 159
Jan 3	@CAM	L 82-97	+3.5	L −11.5	154.5	O 179
Jan 8	vsUNCW	L 78-87	+4.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	vsTOW	L 78-87	+2.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsELON	W 85-78	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 19	@MONM	L 68-81	+3.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 22	vsSTBK	L 80-95	-3.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 24	@DREX	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsCOFC	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 173
Feb 5	@HOF	L 63-80	+8.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	@STBK	L 55-69	+3.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	vsW&M	L 67-94	+5.5	L −21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 19	vsDREX	L 61-70	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 21	vsHOF	L 68-82	+6.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 26	@W&M	L 77-84	+11.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@HAMP	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 3	vsMONM	L 83-89	+3.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 172
Mar 6	vsNCAT	W 88-72	-2.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 160
Mar 7	vsDREX	L 77-84	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−10.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+14.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−25.5

CCSU

W 73-56

+15.5

SYR

L 83-91

+6.5

URI

L 77-85

+2.5

ELON

L 91-103

−7.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

−11.5

UNCW

L 78-87

−4.5

TOW

L 78-87

−6.5

ELON

W 85-78

+10.5

MONM

L 68-81

−9.5

STBK

L 80-95

−18.5

DREX

L 78-83

−0.5

COFC

L 84-89

−1.5

HOF

L 63-80

−8.5

STBK

L 55-69

−10.5

W&M

L 67-94

−21.5

DREX

L 61-70

−10.5

HOF

L 68-82

−7.5

W&M

L 77-84

+4.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−7.5

MONM

L 83-89

−2.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+13.5

DREX

L 77-84

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−18.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+31.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−10.5

CCSU

W 73-56

−9.5

SYR

L 83-91

+33.5

URI

L 77-85

+17.5

ELON

L 91-103

+40.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

+24.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+22.5

TOW

L 78-87

+21.5

ELON

W 85-78

+5.5

MONM

L 68-81

+5.5

STBK

L 80-95

+26.5

DREX

L 78-83

+21.5

COFC

L 84-89

+11.5

HOF

L 63-80

−10.5

STBK

L 55-69

−29.5

W&M

L 67-94

−6.5

DREX

L 61-70

−12.5

HOF

L 68-82

+5.5

W&M

L 77-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−4.5

MONM

L 83-89

+23.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+8.5

DREX

L 77-84

+22.5

over 20under 11avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard has the better starters

Position by position: Harvard 3, Northeastern 1, even 1

HarvardBetterNortheastern

G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

HARVSmall

G M. Loughnane10.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 45

G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88

HARVBig

G R. King TR5.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16

No call

G M. Newton5.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

NEBig

G R. Williams7.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

HARVSmall

C P. Pinter3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

HarvardBetterNortheastern

HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6

Even

NE defense263rd of 366 · -6.8

HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4

HARVSmall

NE offense194th of 366 · -6.0

Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players

Even

Backcourt-0.9 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

Bench-2.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestHARV betterNE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Harvard

Guards

T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min

Forwards

R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew

Centers

J. AdigunNew

Northeastern

Guards

M. Loughnane31 minR. King19 min · TRM. Newton17 minR. Williams15 minL. Bond14 min · TRD. GrosberNew

Forwards

B. Young5 min · TRJ. IcitovicNewD. JungNewS. BaptisteNew

Centers

P. Pinter14 minL. Koelsch9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HARV69.8 #290

NE74.9 #168

Points per possession

HARV1.08 #184

NE1.07 #210

Pace (possessions)

HARV64.7 #350

NE69.9 #120

Shooting

Effective FG%

HARV53.2 #94

NE52.4 #130

3-point %

HARV34.7 #135

NE33.7 #187

3-point attempt rate

HARV40.2 #167

NE37.8 #218

Free throw rate

HARV25.7 #359

NE29.4 #324

Possessions

Turnover rate

HARV17.5 #236

NE16.3 #159

Offensive rebound rate

HARV26.8 #302

NE27.3 #286

Assists per game

HARV14.2 #129

NE15.3 #75

Defense

Points allowed

HARV67.3 #22

NE80.9 #331

Points allowed per possession

HARV1.04 #70

NE1.16 #335

Opponent effective FG%

HARV50.4 #122

NE56.4 #351

Opponent 3-point %

HARV32.6 #94

NE35.8 #297

Turnovers forced

HARV17.1 #147

NE16.8 #163

Defensive rebound rate

HARV71.8 #69

NE69.8 #169

Steals per game

HARV7.1 #111

NE7.0 #131

Blocks per game

HARV3.7 #109

NE3.0 #229

HARV		NE
Scoring
69.8 #290	Points per game	74.9 #168
1.08 #184	Points per possession	1.07 #210
64.7 #350	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #120
Shooting
53.2 #94	Effective FG%	52.4 #130
34.7 #135	3-point %	33.7 #187
40.2 #167	3-point attempt rate	37.8 #218
25.7 #359	Free throw rate	29.4 #324
Possessions
17.5 #236	Turnover rate	16.3 #159
26.8 #302	Offensive rebound rate	27.3 #286
14.2 #129	Assists per game	15.3 #75
Defense
67.3 #22	Points allowed	80.9 #331
1.04 #70	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #335
50.4 #122	Opponent effective FG%	56.4 #351
32.6 #94	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #297
17.1 #147	Turnovers forced	16.8 #163
71.8 #69	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #169
7.1 #111	Steals per game	7.0 #131
3.7 #109	Blocks per game	3.0 #229

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn60–62
Wvs Columbia81–71
L@ Penn61–64
W@ Princeton58–56
W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

Northeastern

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drexel77–84
Wvs NC A&T88–72
Lvs Monmouth83–89
L@ Hampton65–76
L@ William & Mary77–84

A week or more of rest.

Harvard Crimson at Northeastern Huskies

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

Northeastern

Harvard has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Harvard

Northeastern