1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. LIU @ FAU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Long Island University Sharks at Florida Atlantic Owls

Abessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena · at FAU
#324LIULong Island
@
#109FAUFAU
LineFAU -10.5no move
Total153.5no move
LIUThis seasonFAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAU 84–67 · win probability FAU 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
FAU -10.5
no move since the open
Total
153.5
model 150.4 · Under by 3
Model edge
FAU by 6.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAU has more of the edges

LIU 2, FAU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAUBig
FAU offense vs LIU defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LIU has played the 290th-hardest schedule, FAU the 101st. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAUBig
LIU offense vs FAU defense
Offense 339th of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
LIUBig
Three-pointers
LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%; FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 29.3% and 38.2% of their shots
FAUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LIU 33.9%, FAU 31.6%. Defensive: LIU 67.0%, FAU 71.7%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LIU plays 68.5 a game (206th fastest), FAU 71.1 (71st). Faster games mean more points
LIUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LIU 19.0%, FAU 17.6%. Forced: LIU 18.7%, FAU 15.5%
FAUSmall
Home court
FAU at home. This season: FAU 0-0 at home, LIU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LIU 34.0, FAU 33.3. Allowed: LIU 34.7, FAU 36.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LIU 6%, FAU 17%. Transfers in: LIU 6, FAU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0; FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened FAU -10.5 · unchangedmodel FAU -17
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 150.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
LIUWinnerFAU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadFAU -10.5FAU -17.1FAU +6.6
Total153.5150.4Under 3.1
Projected score—LIU 66.6 · FAU 83.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAU -10.0—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreLIU 30.1 · FAU 40.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

FAU has the better starters

Position by position: Long Island 0, FAU 2, even 3
Long IslandBetterFAU
G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 2
FAUBig
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 13
FAUBig
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33
Even
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
Long IslandBetterFAU
LIU offense339th of 366 · -11.1
FAUBig
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1
FAUBig
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players
FAUBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
Bench-1.6 · 3 players
FAUSmall
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestLIU betterFAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Long Island
Guards
J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew
Forwards
J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LIUFAU
Scoring
73.6 #214Points per game77.2 #111
1.08 #185Points per possession1.09 #170
68.5 #206Pace (possessions)71.1 #71
Shooting
52.8 #112Effective FG%52.2 #135
35.8 #673-point %33.3 #210
29.3 #3543-point attempt rate38.2 #208
34.0 #207Free throw rate33.3 #231
Possessions
19.0 #320Turnover rate17.6 #246
33.9 #70Offensive rebound rate31.6 #140
13.7 #170Assists per game13.0 #210
Defense
71.7 #99Points allowed75.3 #198
1.04 #80Points allowed per possession1.06 #108
50.0 #102Opponent effective FG%49.5 #81
32.2 #72Opponent 3-point %33.8 #169
18.7 #61Turnovers forced15.5 #252
67.0 #299Defensive rebound rate71.7 #78
7.8 #56Steals per game5.7 #272
5.4 #9Blocks per game5.3 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Island

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona58–92
  • Wvs Mercyhurst79–70
  • Wvs Wagner64–56
  • Wvs Chicago St79–75
  • Wvs FDU74–60

A week or more of rest.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.