South Carolina Upstate Spartans at East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina

LineECU -14.5moved 2 toward ECU

Total151.5up 2 from 149.5

Season records: SC Upstate and East Carolina
UPST	This season	ECU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ECU 81–68 · win probability ECU 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

ECU -14.5

moved 2 toward ECU

Total

151.5

model 148.4 · Under by 3

Model edge

UPST by 2

model vs market

Public on the spread

66% UPST

74% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ECU has more of the edges

UPST 1, ECU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ECUBig

ECU offense vs UPST defense

Offense 142nd of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UPST has played the 281st-hardest schedule, ECU the 123rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

ECUBig

UPST offense vs ECU defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 158th, on the model’s ratings

ECUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UPST 32.8, ECU 39.2. Allowed: UPST 36.0, ECU 32.2

UPSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0; ECU 46.4 and allows 52.3

ECUSmall

Home court

ECU at home. This season: ECU 0-0 at home, UPST 0-0 away

ECUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UPST 29.2%, ECU 33.4%. Defensive: UPST 68.6%, ECU 67.5%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UPST 18.1%, ECU 17.1%. Forced: UPST 16.5%, ECU 16.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UPST 9%, ECU 16%. Transfers in: UPST 3, ECU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UPST plays 70.5 a game (97th fastest), ECU 70.0 (116th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%; ECU hits 29.3% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 35.6% and 31.1% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5	1928	88%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	988	88%	50%	51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenECU -12.5

2 → ECU

NowECU -14.5

2 pts toward ECU

Total

Open149.5

▲ 2

Now151.5

Up 2 since the open

Moneyline

UPST +600 · ECU -910

Line movement

Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened ECU -12.5 · now ECU -14.5 · moved 2 toward ECUmodel ECU -12.5

model ECU -12.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

UPST +14.5Spread

ECU -14.5

Bets

66%34%

Money

74%26%

Over 151.5TotalUnder 151.5

Bets

34%66%

Money

37%63%

UPSTWinner

ECU

Bets

96%

Money

95%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 7:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UPST	ECU	Over	Under	UPST	ECU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	152-110	152-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-12.5-117	+12.5-109	150.5-117	150.5-109	+540	-910
BovadaBovada	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	152-110	152-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-14.5-118	+14.5-102	151.5-112	151.5-108	+600	-900
FanDuelFD	-12.5-102	+12.5-120	151.5-110	151.5-110	+680	-1100
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-14.5-106	+14.5-106	152-108	152-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	ECU -14.5	ECU -12.7	UPST +1.8
Total	151.5	148.4	Under 3.1
Projected score	—	UPST 67.8 · ECU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ECU -7.4	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	UPST 31 · ECU 38.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	7-9	10-9
ECU LLWLW	12-18	40%	6-10	3-8

Venue/role: UPST away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19
ECU UOUOO	16-14	53%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ECU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs SCST	W78–72LO
Nov 9	@ CCU	W85–78WO
Nov 14	@ CAM	L66–78LO

East Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UNCW	L60–85LU
Nov 11	vs NCAT	W93–69WO
Nov 14	vs DSU	W79–50WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UPST 1–0 ECUUPST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UPST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2023-24	UPST 83 @ ECU 81	ECU -12.5	UPST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

W L L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U O U O O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsSBU	L 58-67	+10.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 125
Dec 2	vsUMES	W 68-56	-12.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsUNCG	L 78-82	-7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 11	vsAPP	L 54-67	-4.5	L −17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsBUF	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 17	vsPRES	W 74-53	-4.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 22	@UNC	L 51-99	+25.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 31	vsTULN	L 70-79	+1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 7	@TEM	L 67-75	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	vsUAB	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 14	@USF	L 71-82	+18.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsCLT	L 70-73	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 21	@WICH	L 60-77	+12.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 23	@UNT	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	vsRICE	L 77-83	-2.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 160
Feb 1	@FAU	W 76-75	+10.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 151
Feb 7	vsTEM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 154
Feb 11	vsUTSA	W 88-72	-10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	@RICE	W 85-75	+4.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 160
Feb 18	vsWICH	L 89-92	+7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	@CLT	L 56-68	+4.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 25	@UTSA	W 82-81	-4.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsMEM	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsTLSA	L 66-93	+8.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 159
Mar 8	@UAB	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

SBU

L 58-67

+1.5

UMES

W 68-56

−0.5

UNCG

L 78-82

−11.5

APP

L 54-67

−17.5

BUF

W 73-70

+1.5

PRES

W 74-53

+16.5

UNC

L 51-99

−22.5

TULN

L 70-79

−7.5

TEM

L 67-75

−0.5

UAB

L 85-87

+5.5

USF

L 71-82

+7.5

CLT

L 70-73

−4.5

WICH

L 60-77

−4.5

UNT

W 63-59

+14.5

RICE

L 77-83

−8.5

FAU

W 76-75

+11.5

TEM

L 73-81

−5.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+5.5

RICE

W 85-75

+14.5

WICH

L 89-92

+4.5

CLT

L 56-68

−7.5

UTSA

W 82-81

−3.5

MEM

W 84-68

+20.5

TLSA

L 66-93

−18.5

UAB

L 83-90

+3.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

SBU

L 58-67

−19.5

UMES

W 68-56

−3.5

UNCG

L 78-82

+20.5

APP

L 54-67

−9.5

BUF

W 73-70

−3.5

PRES

W 74-53

−4.5

UNC

L 51-99

+5.5

TULN

L 70-79

+3.5

TEM

L 67-75

−1.5

UAB

L 85-87

+21.5

USF

L 71-82

−5.5

CLT

L 70-73

+3.5

WICH

L 60-77

−7.5

UNT

W 63-59

−12.5

RICE

L 77-83

+19.5

FAU

W 76-75

−2.5

TEM

L 73-81

+13.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+9.5

RICE

W 85-75

+13.5

WICH

L 89-92

+31.5

CLT

L 56-68

−21.5

UTSA

W 82-81

+9.5

MEM

W 84-68

−0.5

TLSA

L 66-93

+2.5

UAB

L 83-90

+21.5

over 16under 14avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: SC Upstate 0, East Carolina 1, even 4

SC UpstateBetterEast Carolina

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Medley TR10.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 32

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

ECUSmall

G B. Blaine TR17.7 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F K. Watson TR12.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F K. Cooper TR8.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

No call

F J. Woodard3.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked

SC UpstateBetterEast Carolina

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

ECUBig

ECU defense158th of 366 · -3.4

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

ECUBig

ECU offense142nd of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

ECUSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestUPST betterECU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

East Carolina

Guards

C. Medley34 min · TRB. Blaine29 min · TRT. Best6 min · TRA. McCulloughNewM. PandovNew

Forwards

K. Watson32 min · TRK. Cooper26 min · TRJ. Woodard17 minJ. BuchananNewD. QuinnNewD. Creasy-QuirindoongoNew

Centers

E. DeLaurier15 minM. KlitschkoNewM. HintonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UPST71.0 #265

ECU71.5 #259

Points per possession

UPST1.00 #324

ECU1.02 #305

Pace (possessions)

UPST70.5 #97

ECU70.0 #116

Shooting

Effective FG%

UPST48.3 #307

ECU46.4 #346

3-point %

UPST31.4 #308

ECU29.3 #350

3-point attempt rate

UPST35.6 #256

ECU31.1 #337

Free throw rate

UPST32.8 #239

ECU39.2 #75

Possessions

Turnover rate

UPST18.1 #274

ECU17.1 #208

Offensive rebound rate

UPST29.2 #231

ECU33.4 #79

Assists per game

UPST11.7 #304

ECU11.8 #301

Defense

Points allowed

UPST75.7 #210

ECU77.7 #262

Points allowed per possession

UPST1.08 #170

ECU1.11 #246

Opponent effective FG%

UPST51.0 #156

ECU52.3 #229

Opponent 3-point %

UPST35.6 #289

ECU34.9 #245

Turnovers forced

UPST16.5 #185

ECU16.3 #205

Defensive rebound rate

UPST68.6 #224

ECU67.5 #282

Steals per game

UPST6.1 #220

ECU6.5 #177

Blocks per game

UPST4.7 #24

ECU4.0 #74

UPST		ECU
Scoring
71.0 #265	Points per game	71.5 #259
1.00 #324	Points per possession	1.02 #305
70.5 #97	Pace (possessions)	70.0 #116
Shooting
48.3 #307	Effective FG%	46.4 #346
31.4 #308	3-point %	29.3 #350
35.6 #256	3-point attempt rate	31.1 #337
32.8 #239	Free throw rate	39.2 #75
Possessions
18.1 #274	Turnover rate	17.1 #208
29.2 #231	Offensive rebound rate	33.4 #79
11.7 #304	Assists per game	11.8 #301
Defense
75.7 #210	Points allowed	77.7 #262
1.08 #170	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #246
51.0 #156	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #229
35.6 #289	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #245
16.5 #185	Turnovers forced	16.3 #205
68.6 #224	Defensive rebound rate	67.5 #282
6.1 #220	Steals per game	6.5 #177
4.7 #24	Blocks per game	4.0 #74

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

East Carolina

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UAB83–90
Lvs Tulsa66–93
Wvs Memphis84–68
W@ UTSA82–81
L@ Charlotte56–68

A week or more of rest.