Dartmouth Big Green at Marist Red Foxes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETMcCann Arena · at Marist

LineMRST -6.5no move

Total137.5down 4 from 141.5

Season records: Dartmouth and Marist
DART	This season	MRST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRST 73–68 · win probability MRST 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

MRST -6.5

no move since the open

Total

137.5

model 140.1 · Over by 2.5

Model edge

DART by 1.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

99% MRST

99% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRST has more of the edges

DART 2, MRST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DARTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DART 38.0, MRST 25.7. Allowed: DART 30.7, MRST 37.6

Context

Schedule so far

DART has played the 145th-hardest schedule, MRST the 339th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MRSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DART 17.6%, MRST 17.0%. Forced: DART 13.8%, MRST 19.4%

MRSTBig

DART offense vs MRST defense

Offense 261st of 366 against a defense 135th, on the model’s ratings

DARTSmall

MRST offense vs DART defense

Offense 322nd of 366 against a defense 229th, on the model’s ratings

MRSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DART 23.7%, MRST 29.1%. Defensive: DART 70.3%, MRST 71.7%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: DART plays 69.6 a game (143rd fastest), MRST 66.8 (286th). Faster games mean more points

MRSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DART 51.8 and allows 52.7; MRST 49.3 and allows 45.6

MRSTSmall

Home court

MRST at home. This season: MRST 0-0 at home, DART 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DART 40%, MRST 31%. Transfers in: DART 1, MRST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

DART hits 36.1% and allows 34.6%; MRST hits 32.2% and allows 28.6%. Threes are 48.7% and 34.6% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	3171	66%	50%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Games with a total of 135 to 139.5	2607	71%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenMRST -6.5

no move

NowMRST -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open141.5

▼ 4

Now137.5

Down 4 since the open

Moneyline

DART +225 · MRST -275

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened MRST -6.5 · unchangedmodel MRST -5

model MRST -5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

DART +6.5Spread

MRST -6.5

Bets

99%

Money

99%

Over 137.5TotalUnder 137.5

Bets

29%71%

Money

28%72%

DARTWinner

MRST

Bets

99%

Money

98%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	DART	MRST	Over	Under	DART	MRST
BetMGMMGM	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	137.5-110	137.5-110	+220	-275
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-6-105	+6-115	137.5-105	137.5-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-6.5-114	+6.5-109	136.5-120	136.5-107	+225	-305
BetUSBetUS	-6-105	+6-115	137.5-105	137.5-115	—	—
BovadaBovada	-6.5-115	+6.5-105	137.5-115	137.5-105	+225	-275
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-112	+6.5-108	137.5-105	137.5-115	+225	-278
FanDuelFD	-6.5-115	+6.5-105	137.5-115	137.5-105	+210	-260
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-6-101	+6-111	137.5-103	137.5-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	MRST -6.5	MRST -5.0	DART +1.5
Total	137.5	140.1	Over 2.6
Projected score	—	DART 67.5 · MRST 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRST -2.9	—
1H total	65.6	—
1H projected score	DART 31.4 · MRST 34.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DART LWLLL	11-14	44%	9-5	9-9
MRST WLLWW	15-15	50%	7-7	11-11

Venue/role: DART away, as underdog; MRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DART OUUOO	12-13	48%	9-16
MRST OUUOU	11-19	37%	18-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DART	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MRST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Dartmouth

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs CCSU	L50–59LU
Nov 11	@ UALB	L73–87LO
Nov 15	@ BU	W77–64WU

Marist

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs UMBC	W76–73LO
Nov 8	@ UML	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ LEH	W78–55WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DART 0–3 MRSTMRST leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MRST has won the last 3 meetings · DART 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2025-26	MRST 75 @ DART 56	DART -1.5	MRST W
Nov 19, 2024-25	DART 62 @ MRST 75	MRST -9.5	MRST W
Dec 9, 2023-24	MRST 63 @ DART 53	DART +1	MRST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Dartmouth

25 games played

Straight up

9-16

36% wins

Against the spread

11-14

44% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-13

48% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1636%

L L L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1444%

L L L W L W L W W L W W W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1348%

U O O O U O U U O U O U O U U U U O U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsMRST	L 56-75	-1.5	L −20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 12	@BRY	L 75-82	+1.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	vsAPP	L 77-85	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 29	@SPU	W 87-61	+3.5	W +29.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsUNH	W 69-68	-8.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 6	@WYO	L 80-93	+14.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 173
Dec 9	@CSU	L 55-76	+20.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsBU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 16	@HC	W 89-64	-1.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 19	@SHU	L 63-85	-1.5	L −23.5	155.5	U 148
Dec 29	@FLA	L 72-94	+35.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 5	@HARV	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COR	W 102-91	+9.5	W +20.5	175.5	O 193
Jan 17	vsPENN	L 74-84	-2.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	vsPRIN	W 71-69	+1.5	W +3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsCOLU	L 69-79	+2.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 148
Jan 30	@YALE	L 68-83	+15.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 151
Jan 31	@BRWN	W 77-70	+1.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 7	vsHARV	L 58-71	+1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsYALE	L 70-83	+9.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBRWN	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 21	@COLU	W 64-63	+6.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PENN	L 71-80	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	@PRIN	L 61-82	+1.5	L −19.5	142.5	O 143
Mar 7	vsCOR	L 90-111	+4.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 201

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−20.5

BRY

L 75-82

−5.5

APP

L 77-85

−6.5

SPU

W 87-61

+29.5

UNH

W 69-68

−7.5

WYO

L 80-93

+1.5

CSU

L 55-76

−0.5

W 77-64

+10.5

W 89-64

+23.5

SHU

L 63-85

−23.5

FLA

L 72-94

+13.5

HARV

W 76-68

+15.5

COR

W 102-91

+20.5

PENN

L 74-84

−12.5

PRIN

W 71-69

+3.5

COLU

L 69-79

−7.5

YALE

L 68-83

+0.5

BRWN

W 77-70

+8.5

HARV

L 58-71

−11.5

YALE

L 70-83

−3.5

BRWN

L 76-79

−5.5

COLU

W 64-63

+7.5

PENN

L 71-80

−2.5

PRIN

L 61-82

−19.5

COR

L 90-111

−16.5

covered 11didn’t cover 14avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−7.5

BRY

L 75-82

+5.5

APP

L 77-85

+21.5

SPU

W 87-61

+3.5

UNH

W 69-68

−10.5

WYO

L 80-93

+16.5

CSU

L 55-76

−22.5

W 77-64

−3.5

W 89-64

+5.5

SHU

L 63-85

−7.5

FLA

L 72-94

+5.5

HARV

W 76-68

−4.5

COR

W 102-91

+17.5

PENN

L 74-84

−5.5

PRIN

W 71-69

−7.5

COLU

L 69-79

−8.5

YALE

L 68-83

−4.5

BRWN

W 77-70

+4.5

HARV

L 58-71

−11.5

YALE

L 70-83

+1.5

BRWN

L 76-79

+15.5

COLU

W 64-63

−23.5

PENN

L 71-80

−3.5

PRIN

L 61-82

+0.5

COR

L 90-111

+34.5

over 12under 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marist

30 games played

Straight up

18-12

60% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-19

37% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1260%

L W L W W W W W L W L L W W W W L L W W W W L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L L W L W W L L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1937%

U U U O O U O O O U U U U O U O U U U O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@XAV	L 62-66	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 9	@DART	W 75-56	+1.5	W +20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsHARV	L 54-56	-6.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 21	vsARMY	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 141
Nov 25	vsLEH	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	132.5	O 133
Dec 5	vsMSM	W 64-56	-8.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 7	vsMAN	W 80-68	-7.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@BRY	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 156
Dec 16	@GT	L 76-87	+6.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsSTBK	W 70-51	-6.5	W +12.5	137.5	U 121
Dec 29	@QUIN	L 58-64	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 122
Jan 2	@SPU	L 59-69	-2.5	L −12.5	133.5	U 128
Jan 4	vsIONA	W 83-38	-4.5	W +40.5	148.5	U 121
Jan 9	@SHU	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 148
Jan 11	@RID	W 71-49	-10.5	W +11.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsFAIR	W 82-67	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 19	vsMRMK	L 55-68	-6.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@SIE	L 50-69	+1.5	L −17.5	133.5	U 119
Jan 24	vsQUIN	W 71-64	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 135
Jan 30	@CAN	W 88-86	-9.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 174
Feb 1	@NIA	W 58-46	-9.5	W +2.5	128.5	U 104
Feb 5	vsRID	W 81-52	-14.5	W +14.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 7	@FAIR	L 60-63	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 123
Feb 12	@MRMK	L 56-81	+2.5	L −22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	vsSIE	L 63-67	-2.5	L −6.5	133.5	U 130
Feb 20	@MAN	W 84-70	-5.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 154
Feb 22	vsSHU	W 65-63	-7.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 128
Mar 1	vsSPU	L 56-63	-4.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 119
Mar 7	vsQUIN	W 77-75	+1.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 152
Mar 8	vsMRMK	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	128.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

+8.5

DART

W 75-56

+20.5

HARV

L 54-56

−8.5

ARMY

W 76-65

−1.5

LEH

W 78-55

+15.5

MSM

W 64-56

−0.5

MAN

W 80-68

+4.5

BRY

W 82-74

+6.5

L 76-87

−4.5

STBK

W 70-51

+12.5

QUIN

L 58-64

−3.5

SPU

L 59-69

−12.5

IONA

W 83-38

+40.5

SHU

W 76-72

−1.5

RID

W 71-49

+11.5

FAIR

W 82-67

+6.5

MRMK

L 55-68

−19.5

SIE

L 50-69

−17.5

QUIN

W 71-64

+3.5

CAN

W 88-86

−7.5

NIA

W 58-46

+2.5

RID

W 81-52

+14.5

FAIR

L 60-63

−4.5

MRMK

L 56-81

−22.5

SIE

L 63-67

−6.5

MAN

W 84-70

+8.5

SHU

W 65-63

−5.5

SPU

L 56-63

−11.5

QUIN

W 77-75

+3.5

MRMK

L 57-58

+1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

−11.5

DART

W 75-56

−7.5

HARV

L 54-56

−20.5

ARMY

W 76-65

+8.5

LEH

W 78-55

+0.5

MSM

W 64-56

−16.5

MAN

W 80-68

+7.5

BRY

W 82-74

+24.5

L 76-87

+21.5

STBK

W 70-51

−16.5

QUIN

L 58-64

−23.5

SPU

L 59-69

−5.5

IONA

W 83-38

−27.5

SHU

W 76-72

+4.5

RID

W 71-49

−11.5

FAIR

W 82-67

+7.5

MRMK

L 55-68

−10.5

SIE

L 50-69

−14.5

QUIN

W 71-64

−4.5

CAN

W 88-86

+44.5

NIA

W 58-46

−24.5

RID

W 81-52

−2.5

FAIR

L 60-63

−15.5

MRMK

L 56-81

+8.5

SIE

L 63-67

−3.5

MAN

W 84-70

+11.5

SHU

W 65-63

−18.5

SPU

L 56-63

−13.5

QUIN

W 77-75

+16.5

MRMK

L 57-58

−13.5

over 11under 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Marist has the better starters

Position by position: Dartmouth 0, Marist 1, even 4

DartmouthBetterMarist

G C. McNamee5.7 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 34

Even

G J. Collins-Roberts7.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 27

G L. Williams TR4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 16

MRSTSmall

G J. Graham TR11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

G N. Abusara5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47

Even

F M. Parker5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59

G C. Hiatt3.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8

No call

C T. Watson6.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G B. Brown1.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C J. Gabriel2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

DartmouthBetterMarist

DART offense261st of 366 · -8.0

MRSTSmall

MRST defense135th of 366 · -2.6

DART defense229th of 366 · -6.1

DARTSmall

MRST offense322nd of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-7.2 · 5 players

MRSTBig

Backcourt-3.3 · 2 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.0 · 3 players

Bench-0.4 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestDART betterMRST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Dartmouth

Guards

C. McNamee20 minL. Williams20 min · TRN. Abusara17 minC. Hiatt17 minB. Brown9 minC. AldrichNew

Forwards

P. Tivnan6 minS. Simango3 minT. Garrett3 minJ. PollackNew

Centers

A. Strelnikov6 minD. CivelloNew

Marist

Guards

J. Collins-Roberts31 minJ. Graham28 min · TRJ. WilliamsNewC. SweeneyNewB. ArnoldNewD. ChessNew

Forwards

M. Parker15 minE. OnyiaNewL. RodriguezNew

Centers

T. Watson11 minJ. Gabriel7 minL. FranzNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DART73.1 #222

MRST68.9 #301

Points per possession

DART1.05 #253

MRST1.04 #276

Pace (possessions)

DART69.6 #143

MRST66.8 #286

Shooting

Effective FG%

DART51.8 #156

MRST49.3 #276

3-point %

DART36.1 #51

MRST32.2 #272

3-point attempt rate

DART48.7 #22

MRST34.6 #285

Free throw rate

DART38.0 #103

MRST25.7 #360

Possessions

Turnover rate

DART17.6 #248

MRST17.0 #202

Offensive rebound rate

DART23.7 #346

MRST29.1 #233

Assists per game

DART12.8 #227

MRST15.0 #89

Defense

Points allowed

DART78.4 #276

MRST63.9 #4

Points allowed per possession

DART1.13 #287

MRST0.95 #3

Opponent effective FG%

DART52.7 #254

MRST45.6 #5

Opponent 3-point %

DART34.6 #227

MRST28.6 #2

Turnovers forced

DART13.8 #339

MRST19.4 #35

Defensive rebound rate

DART70.3 #148

MRST71.7 #77

Steals per game

DART5.0 #337

MRST7.1 #116

Blocks per game

DART3.5 #147

MRST3.1 #200

DART		MRST
Scoring
73.1 #222	Points per game	68.9 #301
1.05 #253	Points per possession	1.04 #276
69.6 #143	Pace (possessions)	66.8 #286
Shooting
51.8 #156	Effective FG%	49.3 #276
36.1 #51	3-point %	32.2 #272
48.7 #22	3-point attempt rate	34.6 #285
38.0 #103	Free throw rate	25.7 #360
Possessions
17.6 #248	Turnover rate	17.0 #202
23.7 #346	Offensive rebound rate	29.1 #233
12.8 #227	Assists per game	15.0 #89
Defense
78.4 #276	Points allowed	63.9 #4
1.13 #287	Points allowed per possession	0.95 #3
52.7 #254	Opponent effective FG%	45.6 #5
34.6 #227	Opponent 3-point %	28.6 #2
13.8 #339	Turnovers forced	19.4 #35
70.3 #148	Defensive rebound rate	71.7 #77
5.0 #337	Steals per game	7.1 #116
3.5 #147	Blocks per game	3.1 #200

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Dartmouth

9-16 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Cornell90–111
L@ Princeton61–82
L@ Penn71–80
W@ Columbia64–63
Lvs Brown76–79

A week or more of rest.

Marist

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Merrimack57–58
Wvs Quinnipiac77–75
Lvs Saint Peter's56–63
Wvs Sacred Heart65–63
W@ Manhattan84–70

A week or more of rest.