1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. UMBC @ MRST
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

UMBC Retrievers at Marist Red Foxes

McCann Arena · at Marist
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#235MRSTMarist
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMBCThis seasonMRST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRST 72–67 · win probability MRST 67%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

UMBC 3, MRST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMBCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, MRST 25.7. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, MRST 37.6
MRSTBig
UMBC offense vs MRST defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 135th, on the model’s ratings
UMBCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; MRST 49.3 and allows 45.6
UMBCSmall
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; MRST hits 32.2% and allows 28.6%. Threes are 38.8% and 34.6% of their shots
MRSTSmall
Home court
MRST at home. This season: MRST 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
Even
MRST offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 322nd of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, MRST 31%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, MRST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, MRST 17.0%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, MRST 19.4%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, MRST 29.1%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, MRST 71.7%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), MRST 66.8 (286th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, MRST the 339th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MRST -4.9—
Total—139.7—
Projected score—UMBC 67.4 · MRST 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMRST -2.8—
1H total65.4—
1H projected scoreUMBC 31.3 · MRST 34.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UMBC 1, Marist 1, even 3
UMBCBetterMarist
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
UMBCBig
G J. Collins-Roberts7.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 27
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
MRSTBig
G J. Graham TR11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Parker5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
No call
C T. Watson6.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C J. Gabriel2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
UMBCBetterMarist
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
MRSTSmall
MRST defense135th of 366 · -2.6
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
Even
MRST offense322nd of 366 · -10.5
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.0 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterMRST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
Marist
Guards
J. Collins-Roberts31 minJ. Graham28 min · TRJ. WilliamsNewC. SweeneyNewB. ArnoldNewD. ChessNew
Forwards
M. Parker15 minE. OnyiaNewL. RodriguezNew
Centers
T. Watson11 minJ. Gabriel7 minL. FranzNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCMRST
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game68.9 #301
1.13 #85Points per possession1.04 #276
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)66.8 #286
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%49.3 #276
36.1 #553-point %32.2 #272
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate34.6 #285
34.1 #205Free throw rate25.7 #360
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate17.0 #202
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate29.1 #233
11.9 #291Assists per game15.0 #89
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed63.9 #4
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession0.95 #3
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%45.6 #5
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %28.6 #2
15.1 #283Turnovers forced19.4 #35
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate71.7 #77
4.9 #338Steals per game7.1 #116
2.4 #314Blocks per game3.1 #200
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Marist

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack57–58
  • Wvs Quinnipiac77–75
  • Lvs Saint Peter's56–63
  • Wvs Sacred Heart65–63
  • W@ Manhattan84–70

A week or more of rest.