UNC Asheville Bulldogs at Richmond Spiders: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETRobins Center · at Richmond

LineRICH -12.5no move

Total148.5up 1 from 147.5

Season records: UNC Asheville and Richmond
UNCA	This season	RICH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 80–65 · win probability RICH 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

RICH -12.5

no move since the open

Total

148.5

model 144.6 · Under by 4

Model edge

RICH by 2.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

90% UNCA

89% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

UNCA 1, RICH 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RICHBig

UNCA offense vs RICH defense

Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

RICHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCA 17.4%, RICH 14.3%. Forced: UNCA 15.5%, RICH 17.8%

RICHBig

RICH offense vs UNCA defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UNCA has played the 214th-hardest schedule, RICH the 125th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCA 29.8%, RICH 25.0%. Defensive: UNCA 68.7%, RICH 69.0%

RICHSmall

Home court

RICH at home. This season: RICH 0-0 at home, UNCA 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%; RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 33.6% and 42.6% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3; RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UNCA plays 68.0 a game (230th fastest), RICH 68.8 (194th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCA 40.0, RICH 36.9. Allowed: UNCA 38.7, RICH 35.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCA 30%, RICH 29%. Transfers in: UNCA 4, RICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5	1928	88%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	988	88%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenRICH -12.5

no move

NowRICH -12.5

No change since the open

Total

Open147.5

▲ 1

Now148.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

UNCA +550 · RICH -880

Line movement

Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened RICH -12.5 · now RICH -12 · moved 0.5 toward UNCAmodel RICH -15

model RICH -15

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

UNCA +12.5Spread

RICH -12.5

Bets

90%10%

Money

89%11%

UNCAWinner

RICH

Bets

97%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UNCA	RICH	Over	Under	UNCA	RICH
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-12-110	+12-110	148-110	148-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-12.5-114	+12.5-112	146.5-112	146.5-114	+550	-1000
BovadaBovada	-12-110	+12-110	148-110	148-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-12.5-115	+12.5-105	148.5-108	148.5-112	+550	-800
FanDuelFD	-11.5-102	+11.5-120	148.5-110	148.5-110	+580	-880
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-12-106	+12-106	148-108	148-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	RICH -12.5	RICH -15.0	RICH +2.5
Total	148.5	144.6	Under 3.9
Projected score	—	UNCA 64.8 · RICH 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -8.8	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	UNCA 29.4 · RICH 38.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCA LLLWW	15-14	52%	6-7	10-6
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	9-8	8-11

Venue/role: UNCA away, as underdog; RICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCA UOOOU	15-14	52%	12-17
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Asheville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs WCU	L73–80LO
Nov 11	@ WGA	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ GT	No recent meeting

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs TEM	W61–49WU
Nov 12	@ SIU	W93–84WO
Nov 16	@ VT	L58–74LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Asheville

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L L W L L W W L L L L L L W W L L W W L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1452%

L W L L L W W W W L L L W W W L W W W L W W L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O U O U U O U O U U O O U O O U O U O O O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WICH	L 58-75	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	@GASO	L 90-93	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsLIP	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@WCU	L 73-80	-1.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsTNST	L 73-75	-5.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsAPP	W 67-55	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsUNCG	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@NCSU	L 63-75	+28.5	W +16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsM-OH	L 87-90	+6.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 177
Dec 13	vsSTMN	L 59-80	+3.5	L −17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 21	@UAB	L 47-72	+13.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 119
Dec 31	vsHPU	L 69-87	+10.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 3	@CHSO	L 83-86	+4.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 169
Jan 7	vsLONG	W 72-61	-2.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	@RAD	W 91-72	+4.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 14	@PRES	L 70-71	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	vsWIN	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 21	@UPST	W 83-69	+1.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsGWEB	W 69-50	-17.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 119
Jan 31	@WIN	L 71-84	+9.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 4	vsUPST	W 76-67	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 12	@LONG	W 79-74	+2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsPRES	L 57-58	-5.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	@HPU	L 48-74	+14.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 21	vsRAD	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Feb 26	@GWEB	W 77-71	-12.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	vsCHSO	L 75-92	-4.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 167
Mar 6	vsLONG	W 85-82	+1.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsHPU	L 71-75	+14.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−10.5

GASO

L 90-93

+2.5

LIP

W 69-64

−1.5

WCU

L 73-80

−8.5

TNST

L 73-75

−7.5

APP

W 67-55

+10.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+0.5

NCSU

L 63-75

+16.5

M-OH

L 87-90

+3.5

STMN

L 59-80

−17.5

UAB

L 47-72

−11.5

HPU

L 69-87

−7.5

CHSO

L 83-86

+1.5

LONG

W 72-61

+8.5

RAD

W 91-72

+23.5

PRES

L 70-71

−3.5

WIN

L 67-69

+3.5

UPST

W 83-69

+15.5

GWEB

W 69-50

+1.5

WIN

L 71-84

−3.5

UPST

W 76-67

+2.5

LONG

W 79-74

+7.5

PRES

L 57-58

−6.5

HPU

L 48-74

−11.5

RAD

W 74-73

−1.5

GWEB

W 77-71

−6.5

CHSO

L 75-92

−21.5

LONG

W 85-82

+4.5

HPU

L 71-75

+10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−24.5

GASO

L 90-93

+20.5

LIP

W 69-64

−25.5

WCU

L 73-80

+0.5

TNST

L 73-75

−16.5

APP

W 67-55

−15.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+15.5

NCSU

L 63-75

−17.5

M-OH

L 87-90

+24.5

STMN

L 59-80

−9.5

UAB

L 47-72

−32.5

HPU

L 69-87

+4.5

CHSO

L 83-86

+17.5

LONG

W 72-61

−15.5

RAD

W 91-72

+11.5

PRES

L 70-71

+2.5

WIN

L 67-69

−16.5

UPST

W 83-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 69-50

−30.5

WIN

L 71-84

+7.5

UPST

W 76-67

+3.5

LONG

W 79-74

+11.5

PRES

L 57-58

−22.5

HPU

L 48-74

−30.5

RAD

W 74-73

−2.5

GWEB

W 77-71

+2.5

CHSO

L 75-92

+18.5

LONG

W 85-82

+26.5

HPU

L 71-75

−1.5

over 15under 14avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Richmond has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Asheville 0, Richmond 4, even 1

UNC AshevilleBetterRichmond

G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15

RICHBig

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9

RICHBig

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5

RICHBig

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

RICHBig

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

UNC AshevilleBetterRichmond

UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1

RICHBig

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1

RICHSmall

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players

RICHBig

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players

RICHBig

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

Bench-2.6 · 3 players

RICHSmall

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNCA betterRICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Asheville

Guards

K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew

Forwards

M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCA71.9 #248

RICH76.5 #132

Points per possession

UNCA1.06 #236

RICH1.11 #119

Pace (possessions)

UNCA68.0 #230

RICH68.8 #194

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCA51.0 #194

RICH52.7 #115

3-point %

UNCA35.1 #110

RICH37.1 #28

3-point attempt rate

UNCA33.6 #307

RICH42.6 #126

Free throw rate

UNCA40.0 #60

RICH36.9 #133

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCA17.4 #230

RICH14.3 #32

Offensive rebound rate

UNCA29.8 #211

RICH25.0 #340

Assists per game

UNCA10.1 #358

RICH14.0 #145

Defense

Points allowed

UNCA74.2 #161

RICH74.5 #175

Points allowed per possession

UNCA1.09 #203

RICH1.09 #183

Opponent effective FG%

UNCA51.3 #175

RICH52.0 #216

Opponent 3-point %

UNCA32.6 #93

RICH32.7 #103

Turnovers forced

UNCA15.5 #251

RICH17.8 #111

Defensive rebound rate

UNCA68.7 #218

RICH69.0 #200

Steals per game

UNCA5.1 #324

RICH6.8 #139

Blocks per game

UNCA3.5 #133

RICH2.3 #323

UNCA		RICH
Scoring
71.9 #248	Points per game	76.5 #132
1.06 #236	Points per possession	1.11 #119
68.0 #230	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #194
Shooting
51.0 #194	Effective FG%	52.7 #115
35.1 #110	3-point %	37.1 #28
33.6 #307	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #126
40.0 #60	Free throw rate	36.9 #133
Possessions
17.4 #230	Turnover rate	14.3 #32
29.8 #211	Offensive rebound rate	25.0 #340
10.1 #358	Assists per game	14.0 #145
Defense
74.2 #161	Points allowed	74.5 #175
1.09 #203	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #183
51.3 #175	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #216
32.6 #93	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #103
15.5 #251	Turnovers forced	17.8 #111
68.7 #218	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #200
5.1 #324	Steals per game	6.8 #139
3.5 #133	Blocks per game	2.3 #323

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point71–75
Wvs Longwood85–82
Lvs Charleston So75–92
W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.