1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. WCU @ UNCA
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Western Carolina Catamounts at UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Kimmel Arena · at UNC Asheville
#215WCUW Carolina
@
#271UNCAUNC Asheville
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WCUThis seasonUNCA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WCU 74–73 · win probability WCU 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCA has more of the edges

WCU 2, UNCA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WCU 35.4%, UNCA 29.8%. Defensive: WCU 73.7%, UNCA 68.7%
UNCABig
Three-pointers
WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%; UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 40.9% and 33.6% of their shots
UNCASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WCU 31.3, UNCA 40.0. Allowed: WCU 37.8, UNCA 38.7
UNCASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9; UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3
WCUSmall
WCU offense vs UNCA defense
Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings
UNCASmall
Home court
UNCA at home. This season: UNCA 0-0 at home, WCU 0-0 away
Even
UNCA offense vs WCU defense
Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WCU has played the 177th-hardest schedule, UNCA the 214th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WCU plays 69.3 a game (162nd fastest), UNCA 68.0 (230th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WCU 16%, UNCA 30%. Transfers in: WCU 6, UNCA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WCU 16.7%, UNCA 17.4%. Forced: WCU 14.6%, UNCA 15.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WCU -0.7—
Total—147.3—
Projected score—WCU 74 · UNCA 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWCU -0.5—
1H total68.9—
1H projected scoreWCU 34.7 · UNCA 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

W Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: W Carolina 4, UNC Asheville 0, even 1
W CarolinaBetterUNC Asheville
G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48
WCUSmall
G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15
G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64
WCUBig
G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9
G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70
No call
G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
WCUSmall
F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5
F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
WCUBig
F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
W CarolinaBetterUNC Asheville
WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2
WCUSmall
UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1
WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7
Even
UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
WCUSmall
Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
WCUBig
Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
WCUSmall
Bench-2.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWCU betterUNCA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Carolina
Guards
M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min
Forwards
S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew
UNC Asheville
Guards
K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew
Forwards
M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WCUUNCA
Scoring
76.3 #134Points per game71.9 #248
1.10 #140Points per possession1.06 #236
69.3 #162Pace (possessions)68.0 #230
Shooting
50.5 #218Effective FG%51.0 #194
33.5 #1983-point %35.1 #110
40.9 #1473-point attempt rate33.6 #307
31.3 #274Free throw rate40.0 #60
Possessions
16.7 #179Turnover rate17.4 #230
35.4 #36Offensive rebound rate29.8 #211
12.0 #286Assists per game10.1 #358
Defense
79.0 #299Points allowed74.2 #161
1.14 #307Points allowed per possession1.09 #203
54.9 #327Opponent effective FG%51.3 #175
36.7 #337Opponent 3-point %32.6 #93
14.6 #318Turnovers forced15.5 #251
73.7 #22Defensive rebound rate68.7 #218
5.8 #266Steals per game5.1 #324
2.4 #315Blocks per game3.5 #133
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU67–69
  • Wvs Mercer77–73
  • Wvs Furman86–67
  • Wvs Mercer78–74
  • W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point71–75
  • Wvs Longwood85–82
  • Lvs Charleston So75–92
  • W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
  • Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.