1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. LIP @ WCU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Lipscomb Bisons at Western Carolina Catamounts

Ramsey Center · at W Carolina
#214LIPLipscomb
@
#215WCUW Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LIPThis seasonWCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WCU 78–75 · win probability WCU 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIP has more of the edges

LIP 6, WCU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LIP 25.8%, WCU 35.4%. Defensive: LIP 69.8%, WCU 73.7%
LIPBig
Three-pointers
LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%; WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 47.9% and 40.9% of their shots
LIPBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LIP 16.0%, WCU 16.7%. Forced: LIP 17.7%, WCU 14.6%
LIPSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2; WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9
Context
Schedule so far
LIP has played the 267th-hardest schedule, WCU the 177th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LIPSmall
LIP offense vs WCU defense
Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings
LIPSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LIP 26.0, WCU 31.3. Allowed: LIP 29.0, WCU 37.8
WCUSmall
WCU offense vs LIP defense
Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings
WCUSmall
Home court
WCU at home. This season: WCU 0-0 at home, LIP 0-0 away
LIPSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LIP 44%, WCU 16%. Transfers in: LIP 2, WCU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LIP plays 70.8 a game (83rd fastest), WCU 69.3 (162nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WCU -2.7—
Total—152.5—
Projected score—LIP 74.9 · WCU 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWCU -1.5—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreLIP 34.9 · WCU 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

W Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Lipscomb 2, W Carolina 3, even 0
LipscombBetterW Carolina
G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
LIPSmall
G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48
G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81
LIPSmall
G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64
F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28
WCUBig
G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70
F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3
WCUSmall
G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4
WCUBig
F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
LipscombBetterW Carolina
LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9
LIPSmall
WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7
LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0
WCUSmall
WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players
LIPBig
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players
WCUBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLIP betterWCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lipscomb
Guards
T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew
Forwards
T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew
W Carolina
Guards
M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min
Forwards
S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LIPWCU
Scoring
77.6 #104Points per game76.3 #134
1.10 #142Points per possession1.10 #140
70.8 #83Pace (possessions)69.3 #162
Shooting
54.1 #67Effective FG%50.5 #218
35.7 #753-point %33.5 #198
47.9 #243-point attempt rate40.9 #147
26.0 #357Free throw rate31.3 #274
Possessions
16.0 #142Turnover rate16.7 #179
25.8 #327Offensive rebound rate35.4 #36
17.2 #19Assists per game12.0 #286
Defense
77.0 #242Points allowed79.0 #299
1.09 #187Points allowed per possession1.14 #307
53.2 #273Opponent effective FG%54.9 #327
34.3 #207Opponent 3-point %36.7 #337
17.7 #113Turnovers forced14.6 #318
69.8 #171Defensive rebound rate73.7 #22
6.8 #141Steals per game5.8 #266
2.6 #291Blocks per game2.4 #315
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs FGCU53–77
  • W@ E Kentucky80–77
  • L@ West Georgia78–84
  • Wvs North Alabama73–51
  • W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU67–69
  • Wvs Mercer77–73
  • Wvs Furman86–67
  • Wvs Mercer78–74
  • W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.