Reilly Center · at St Bonaventure
#265YSUYoungstown St
@
#142SBUSt Bonaventure
LineSBU -10.5moved 1 toward SBU
Total153.5up 2 from 151.5
Season records: Youngstown St and St Bonaventure
YSUThis seasonSBU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SBU 78–68 · win probability SBU 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SBU -10.5
moved 1 toward SBU
Total
153.5
model 146.3 · Under by 7
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
73% YSU
62% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

YSU 1, SBU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, SBU the 109th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SBUBig
YSU offense vs SBU defense
Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings
SBUSmall
SBU offense vs YSU defense
Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings
SBUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, SBU 34.5%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, SBU 70.2%
SBUSmall
Three-pointers
YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 49.4% and 31.3% of their shots
YSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3
SBUSmall
Home court
SBU at home. This season: SBU 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, SBU 16.8%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, SBU 17.1%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), SBU 68.0 (228th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, SBU 18%. Transfers in: YSU 6, SBU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, SBU 30.0. Allowed: YSU 36.0, SBU 33.9

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward SBU
Total
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
YSU +425 · SBU -600
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SBU -9.5 · now SBU -10.5 · moved 1 toward SBUmodel SBU -10
Opened 151.5 · now 153.5 · moved 2 upmodel 146.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
YSU +10.5SpreadSBU -10.5
Bets
Money
Money is 11 pts ahead of bets on SBU -10.5
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
YSUWinnerSBU
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
YSUSBUOverUnderYSUSBU
BetMGMMGM-10.5-110+10.5-110153.5-110153.5-110+425-600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-10-105+10-115153.5-110153.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-10.5-120+10.5-107153.5-112153.5-114+375-560
BetUSBetUS-10-105+10-115153.5-110153.5-110——
BovadaBovada-10.5-115+10.5-105153.5-110153.5-110+400-575
DraftKingsDK-10.5-112+10.5-108153.5-115153.5-105+455-625
FanDuelFD-10.5-110+10.5-110153.5-112153.5-108+440-610
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-10-101+10-111153.5-108153.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSBU -10.5SBU -10.1YSU +0.4
Total153.5146.3Under 7.2
Projected score—YSU 68.1 · SBU 78.2

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadSBU -5.8—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreYSU 31.3 · SBU 37.1—

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, St Bonaventure 3, even 2
Youngstown StBetterSt Bonaventure
G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30
SBUSmall
G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62
G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
No call
G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18
SBUSmall
F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
Even
F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33
F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
SBUSmall
F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22
Youngstown StBetterSt Bonaventure
YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1
SBUBig
SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4
YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8
SBUSmall
SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
SBUBig
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
SBUSmall
Bench-0.6 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestYSU betterSBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Youngstown St
Guards
L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew
Forwards
J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew
Centers
K. AmoakoNew
St Bonaventure
Guards
A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew
Forwards
R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew
Centers
B. BillNewC. DialloNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YSUSBU
Scoring
75.1 #162Points per game76.2 #138
1.09 #160Points per possession1.12 #104
68.9 #188Pace (possessions)68.0 #228
Shooting
53.6 #76Effective FG%52.4 #129
33.8 #1843-point %37.4 #22
49.4 #173-point attempt rate31.3 #335
31.4 #272Free throw rate30.0 #310
Possessions
18.8 #314Turnover rate16.8 #189
30.4 #182Offensive rebound rate34.5 #60
14.0 #144Assists per game15.4 #73
Defense
74.9 #185Points allowed75.4 #201
1.09 #190Points allowed per possession1.11 #245
52.3 #228Opponent effective FG%53.3 #278
35.5 #280Opponent 3-point %36.0 #299
17.8 #106Turnovers forced17.1 #144
69.3 #191Defensive rebound rate70.2 #150
6.7 #151Steals per game7.5 #80
3.5 #146Blocks per game4.4 #41

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Robert Morris53–68
  • L@ Green Bay63–85
  • L@ Milwaukee65–78
  • Wvs N Kentucky64–58
  • Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton63–68
  • Wvs George Mason63–57
  • Wvs La Salle99–80
  • Lvs Davidson63–68
  • L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.