Youngstown State Penguins at Central Michigan Chippewas: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETMcGuirk Arena · at C Michigan

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Youngstown St and C Michigan
YSU	This season	CMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CMU 75–72 · win probability CMU 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

YSU 2, CMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, CMU the 158th. A record against a soft schedule means less

YSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, CMU 29.2%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, CMU 65.7%

YSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; CMU 51.8 and allows 54.0

CMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, CMU 43%. Transfers in: YSU 6, CMU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CMUSmall

Home court

CMU at home. This season: CMU 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, CMU 31.4. Allowed: YSU 36.0, CMU 39.0

Even

YSU offense vs CMU defense

Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 287th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), CMU 68.3 (212th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, CMU 18.1%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, CMU 16.9%

Even

CMU offense vs YSU defense

Offense 258th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; CMU hits 33.9% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 49.4% and 34.0% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CMU -2.9	—
Total	—	147.8	—
Projected score	—	YSU 72.4 · CMU 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CMU -1.6	—
1H total	69.1	—
1H projected score	YSU 33.8 · CMU 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YSU WWLLL	10-19	34%	5-10	—
CMU WWWLL	16-13	55%	8-3	—

Venue/role: YSU away; CMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU OUUOU	15-14	52%	12-17
CMU OOUUO	13-16	45%	8-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Youngstown St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs MRSH	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ CIN	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs W&M	No recent meeting

C Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ NKU	L66–90LO
Nov 17	@ DAY	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ PITT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

YSU 2–0 CMUYSU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · YSU has won the last 2 meetings · YSU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2022-23	YSU 76 @ CMU 65	CMU +6.5	YSU W
Dec 8, 2021-22	CMU 77 @ YSU 84	YSU -12	CMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L L W W W W L W L L L L L L W L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L W W L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsWRST	W 69-68	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	@IUIN	W 78-55	-6.5	W +16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 17	@RMU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsUPST	W 74-65	-6.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDETM	L 68-73	-9.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 1	vsOAK	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	@NKU	L 79-94	+4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsPFW	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 15	@WRST	L 83-93	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 17	@CLE	L 78-80	-8.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsGB	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsMILW	L 64-65	-6.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsIUIN	W 85-76	-10.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 4	@PFW	W 90-61	+2.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsRMU	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@OAK	W 86-82	+3.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@DETM	L 70-76	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 18	vsCLE	W 106-82	-11.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsNKU	W 64-58	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@MILW	L 65-78	-1.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 28	@GB	L 63-85	+1.5	L −20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 4	@RMU	L 53-68	+3.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

WRST

W 69-68

−2.5

IUIN

W 78-55

+16.5

RMU

L 77-80

−0.5

UPST

W 74-65

+2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−14.5

OAK

L 83-85

−3.5

NKU

L 79-94

−10.5

PFW

L 69-71

−6.5

WRST

L 83-93

−5.5

CLE

L 78-80

−10.5

W 88-81

−0.5

MILW

L 64-65

−7.5

IUIN

W 85-76

−1.5

PFW

W 90-61

+31.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

OAK

W 86-82

+7.5

DETM

L 70-76

−10.5

CLE

W 106-82

+12.5

NKU

W 64-58

+3.5

MILW

L 65-78

−14.5

L 63-85

−20.5

RMU

L 53-68

−11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

WRST

W 69-68

−7.5

IUIN

W 78-55

−38.5

RMU

L 77-80

+16.5

UPST

W 74-65

−2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−5.5

OAK

L 83-85

+10.5

NKU

L 79-94

+26.5

PFW

L 69-71

−5.5

WRST

L 83-93

+34.5

CLE

L 78-80

+5.5

W 88-81

+29.5

MILW

L 64-65

−22.5

IUIN

W 85-76

+7.5

PFW

W 90-61

+3.5

RMU

L 66-72

−5.5

OAK

W 86-82

+12.5

DETM

L 70-76

−5.5

CLE

W 106-82

+30.5

NKU

W 64-58

−30.5

MILW

L 65-78

−4.5

L 63-85

+6.5

RMU

L 53-68

−22.5

over 15under 14avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

W L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

O U U U O O O O U U U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAPP	W 82-66	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 8	@BRAD	L 54-85	+9.5	L −21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 13	vsUSA	L 64-66	+5.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsCOPP	W 82-59	-10.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 20	vsNKU	L 66-90	-4.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 22	@MARQ	L 71-85	+25.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 2	@LUC	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 7	@SLU	L 65-107	+24.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@STBK	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	@NIU	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 22	@WIS	L 61-88	+26.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 30	vsOHIO	L 64-80	+6.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsTOL	L 75-78	+7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@AKR	L 69-82	+23.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsKENT	W 87-85	+10.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@M-OH	L 61-100	+15.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsBALL	L 67-68	+1.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	@WMU	L 65-77	+5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	vsEMU	W 100-65	+2.5	W +37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsBGSU	W 62-59	+8.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	@MASS	L 89-95	+11.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 184
Feb 7	@UL	L 80-85	+2.5	L −2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsNIU	W 88-46	-4.5	W +37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@EMU	L 54-66	+4.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	vsWMU	W 83-70	-3.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@KENT	L 81-83	+11.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 28	@BUF	W 75-70	+5.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsAKR	L 64-77	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	@BALL	L 69-85	+2.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+14.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−21.5

USA

L 64-66

+3.5

COPP

W 82-59

+12.5

NKU

L 66-90

−28.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+11.5

LUC

L 72-83

−4.5

SLU

L 65-107

−17.5

STBK

L 55-78

−15.5

NIU

L 73-74

+1.5

WIS

L 61-88

−0.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−9.5

TOL

L 75-78

+4.5

AKR

L 69-82

+10.5

KENT

W 87-85

+12.5

M-OH

L 61-100

−23.5

BALL

L 67-68

+0.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+37.5

BGSU

W 62-59

+11.5

MASS

L 89-95

+5.5

L 80-85

−2.5

NIU

W 88-46

+37.5

EMU

L 54-66

−7.5

WMU

W 83-70

+9.5

KENT

L 81-83

+9.5

BUF

W 75-70

+10.5

AKR

L 64-77

−1.5

BALL

L 69-85

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+5.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−8.5

USA

L 64-66

−12.5

COPP

W 82-59

−1.5

NKU

L 66-90

+9.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+3.5

LUC

L 72-83

+14.5

SLU

L 65-107

+11.5

STBK

L 55-78

−12.5

NIU

L 73-74

−2.5

WIS

L 61-88

−3.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−7.5

TOL

L 75-78

−5.5

AKR

L 69-82

−13.5

KENT

W 87-85

+15.5

M-OH

L 61-100

+2.5

BALL

L 67-68

−7.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+25.5

BGSU

W 62-59

−28.5

MASS

L 89-95

+31.5

L 80-85

+30.5

NIU

W 88-46

−12.5

EMU

L 54-66

−20.5

WMU

W 83-70

+2.5

KENT

L 81-83

+7.5

BUF

W 75-70

−6.5

AKR

L 64-77

−17.5

BALL

L 69-85

+19.5

over 13under 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

C Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, C Michigan 2, even 3

Youngstown StBetterC Michigan

G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30

Even

G J. Petty TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

CMUSmall

G P. Phat Brooks11.1 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 46

G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18

Even

G J. Whitaker5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 11

G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

Even

G J. Kampen4.1 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

CMUSmall

F K. Garner7.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

Youngstown StBetterC Michigan

YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1

Even

CMU defense287th of 366 · -7.2

YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8

Even

CMU offense258th of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.1 · 1 player

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestYSU betterCMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Youngstown St

Guards

L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew

Forwards

J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew

Centers

K. AmoakoNew

C Michigan

Guards

J. Petty31 min · TRP. Phat Brooks29 minJ. Whitaker18 minJ. Kampen14 minJ. HackettNewU. AmeneNew

Forwards

K. Garner25 minT. AmbroseNewN. UsenNewJ. BascomNew

Centers

C. LuczynskiNewK. AburashedNewB. MendozaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

YSU75.1 #162

CMU71.7 #256

Points per possession

YSU1.09 #160

CMU1.05 #248

Pace (possessions)

YSU68.9 #188

CMU68.3 #212

Shooting

Effective FG%

YSU53.6 #76

CMU51.8 #158

3-point %

YSU33.8 #184

CMU33.9 #181

3-point attempt rate

YSU49.4 #17

CMU34.0 #293

Free throw rate

YSU31.4 #272

CMU31.4 #269

Possessions

Turnover rate

YSU18.8 #314

CMU18.1 #279

Offensive rebound rate

YSU30.4 #182

CMU29.2 #230

Assists per game

YSU14.0 #144

CMU14.4 #120

Defense

Points allowed

YSU74.9 #185

CMU77.7 #258

Points allowed per possession

YSU1.09 #190

CMU1.14 #301

Opponent effective FG%

YSU52.3 #228

CMU54.0 #299

Opponent 3-point %

YSU35.5 #280

CMU35.5 #282

Turnovers forced

YSU17.8 #106

CMU16.9 #157

Defensive rebound rate

YSU69.3 #191

CMU65.7 #323

Steals per game

YSU6.7 #151

CMU6.1 #219

Blocks per game

YSU3.5 #146

CMU4.1 #64

YSU		CMU
Scoring
75.1 #162	Points per game	71.7 #256
1.09 #160	Points per possession	1.05 #248
68.9 #188	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #212
Shooting
53.6 #76	Effective FG%	51.8 #158
33.8 #184	3-point %	33.9 #181
49.4 #17	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #293
31.4 #272	Free throw rate	31.4 #269
Possessions
18.8 #314	Turnover rate	18.1 #279
30.4 #182	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #230
14.0 #144	Assists per game	14.4 #120
Defense
74.9 #185	Points allowed	77.7 #258
1.09 #190	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #301
52.3 #228	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #299
35.5 #280	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #282
17.8 #106	Turnovers forced	16.9 #157
69.3 #191	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #323
6.7 #151	Steals per game	6.1 #219
3.5 #146	Blocks per game	4.1 #64

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Robert Morris53–68
L@ Green Bay63–85
L@ Milwaukee65–78
Wvs N Kentucky64–58
Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

C Michigan

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Ball State69–85
Lvs Akron64–77
W@ Buffalo75–70
L@ Kent State81–83
Wvs W Michigan83–70

A week or more of rest.

Youngstown State Penguins at Central Michigan Chippewas

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

C Michigan

C Michigan has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Youngstown St

C Michigan