Youngstown State Penguins at Ohio State Buckeyes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 12:00 AM ETSchottenstein Center · at Ohio State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Youngstown St and Ohio State
YSU	This season	OSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OSU 88–62 · win probability OSU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OSU has more of the edges

YSU 0, OSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, OSU the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OSUBig

YSU offense vs OSU defense

Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings

OSUBig

OSU offense vs YSU defense

Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings

OSUBig

Three-pointers

YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 49.4% and 40.1% of their shots

OSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, OSU 37.2. Allowed: YSU 36.0, OSU 34.7

OSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2

OSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, OSU 37%. Transfers in: YSU 6, OSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

OSUSmall

Home court

OSU at home. This season: OSU 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), OSU 67.2 (275th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, OSU 15.3%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, OSU 15.6%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, OSU 30.4%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, OSU 70.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OSU -26.8	—
Total	—	149.9	—
Projected score	—	YSU 61.6 · OSU 88.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OSU -15.8	—
1H total	70.1	—
1H projected score	YSU 27.1 · OSU 43	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YSU WWLLL	10-19	34%	5-10	—
OSU WWWWL	18-16	53%	8-9	—

Venue/role: YSU away; OSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU OUUOU	15-14	52%	12-17
OSU OOOUU	16-18	47%	21-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
OSU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Youngstown St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ CMU	W76–65WU
Nov 14	vs MRSH	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ CIN	No recent meeting

Ohio State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs MRSH	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ CONN	No recent meeting
Nov 16	vs PV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

YSU 0–1 OSUOSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · YSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2024-25	YSU 47 @ OSU 81	OSU -18.5	OSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L L W W W W L W L L L L L L W L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L W W L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsWRST	W 69-68	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	@IUIN	W 78-55	-6.5	W +16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 17	@RMU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsUPST	W 74-65	-6.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDETM	L 68-73	-9.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 1	vsOAK	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	@NKU	L 79-94	+4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsPFW	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 15	@WRST	L 83-93	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 17	@CLE	L 78-80	-8.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsGB	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsMILW	L 64-65	-6.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsIUIN	W 85-76	-10.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 4	@PFW	W 90-61	+2.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsRMU	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@OAK	W 86-82	+3.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@DETM	L 70-76	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 18	vsCLE	W 106-82	-11.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsNKU	W 64-58	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@MILW	L 65-78	-1.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 28	@GB	L 63-85	+1.5	L −20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 4	@RMU	L 53-68	+3.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

WRST

W 69-68

−2.5

IUIN

W 78-55

+16.5

RMU

L 77-80

−0.5

UPST

W 74-65

+2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−14.5

OAK

L 83-85

−3.5

NKU

L 79-94

−10.5

PFW

L 69-71

−6.5

WRST

L 83-93

−5.5

CLE

L 78-80

−10.5

W 88-81

−0.5

MILW

L 64-65

−7.5

IUIN

W 85-76

−1.5

PFW

W 90-61

+31.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

OAK

W 86-82

+7.5

DETM

L 70-76

−10.5

CLE

W 106-82

+12.5

NKU

W 64-58

+3.5

MILW

L 65-78

−14.5

L 63-85

−20.5

RMU

L 53-68

−11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

WRST

W 69-68

−7.5

IUIN

W 78-55

−38.5

RMU

L 77-80

+16.5

UPST

W 74-65

−2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−5.5

OAK

L 83-85

+10.5

NKU

L 79-94

+26.5

PFW

L 69-71

−5.5

WRST

L 83-93

+34.5

CLE

L 78-80

+5.5

W 88-81

+29.5

MILW

L 64-65

−22.5

IUIN

W 85-76

+7.5

PFW

W 90-61

+3.5

RMU

L 66-72

−5.5

OAK

W 86-82

+12.5

DETM

L 70-76

−5.5

CLE

W 106-82

+30.5

NKU

W 64-58

−30.5

MILW

L 65-78

−4.5

L 63-85

+6.5

RMU

L 53-68

−22.5

over 15under 14avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio State

34 games played

Straight up

21-13

62% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1362%

W W W W W W L W L W L W W L W L W W L W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1653%

L W L L W W L W L L W L L L W L W W W L L W L L W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

O O U U U O U O O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O U U U U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIUIN	W 118-102	-33.5	L −17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 7	vsPFW	W 94-68	-24.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsAPP	W 75-53	-23.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	vsND	W 64-63	-9.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 20	vsWMU	W 91-58	-26.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 25	vsMSM	W 113-60	-30.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 28	@PITT	L 66-67	-5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 6	@NU	W 86-82	-1.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 9	vsILL	L 80-88	+3.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsWVU	W 89-88	-3.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 20	vsUNC	L 70-71	+2.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 141
Dec 23	vsGRAM	W 89-63	-28.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Jan 2	@RUTG	W 80-73	-9.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 153
Jan 5	vsNEB	L 69-72	-2.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 8	@ORE	W 72-62	+1.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 134
Jan 11	@WASH	L 74-81	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 155
Jan 17	vsUCLA	W 86-74	-4.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 20	vsMINN	W 82-74	-7.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 23	@MICH	L 62-74	+16.5	W +4.5	165.5	U 136
Jan 26	vsPSU	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 31	@WIS	L 82-92	+4.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 5	@MD	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 8	vsMICH	L 61-82	+8.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 143
Feb 11	vsUSC	W 89-82	-7.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 171
Feb 14	vsUVA	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 136
Feb 17	vsWIS	W 86-69	-1.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 22	@MSU	L 60-66	+10.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 126
Feb 25	@IOWA	L 57-74	+6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 1	vsPUR	W 82-74	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 156
Mar 4	@PSU	W 94-62	-7.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsIU	W 91-78	-3.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsIOWA	W 72-69	+1.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 13	vsMICH	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 138
Mar 19	vsTCU	L 64-66	-2.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

−17.5

PFW

W 94-68

+1.5

APP

W 75-53

−1.5

W 64-63

−8.5

WMU

W 91-58

+6.5

MSM

W 113-60

+22.5

PITT

L 66-67

−6.5

W 86-82

+2.5

ILL

L 80-88

−4.5

WVU

W 89-88

−2.5

UNC

L 70-71

+1.5

GRAM

W 89-63

−2.5

RUTG

W 80-73

−2.5

NEB

L 69-72

−5.5

ORE

W 72-62

+11.5

WASH

L 74-81

−5.5

UCLA

W 86-74

+7.5

MINN

W 82-74

+0.5

MICH

L 62-74

+4.5

PSU

W 84-78

−5.5

WIS

L 82-92

−5.5

W 82-62

+13.5

MICH

L 61-82

−12.5

USC

W 89-82

−0.5

UVA

L 66-70

+1.5

WIS

W 86-69

+15.5

MSU

L 60-66

+4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−10.5

PUR

W 82-74

+14.5

PSU

W 94-62

+24.5

W 91-78

+9.5

IOWA

W 72-69

+4.5

MICH

L 67-71

+8.5

TCU

L 64-66

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

+47.5

PFW

W 94-68

+2.5

APP

W 75-53

−19.5

W 64-63

−29.5

WMU

W 91-58

−10.5

MSM

W 113-60

+21.5

PITT

L 66-67

−15.5

W 86-82

+12.5

ILL

L 80-88

+5.5

WVU

W 89-88

+31.5

UNC

L 70-71

−16.5

GRAM

W 89-63

−1.5

RUTG

W 80-73

+1.5

NEB

L 69-72

−14.5

ORE

W 72-62

−18.5

WASH

L 74-81

−0.5

UCLA

W 86-74

+13.5

MINN

W 82-74

+12.5

MICH

L 62-74

−29.5

PSU

W 84-78

+8.5

WIS

L 82-92

+18.5

W 82-62

−6.5

MICH

L 61-82

−18.5

USC

W 89-82

+18.5

UVA

L 66-70

−10.5

WIS

W 86-69

−2.5

MSU

L 60-66

−20.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−10.5

PUR

W 82-74

+6.5

PSU

W 94-62

+3.5

W 91-78

+20.5

IOWA

W 72-69

+0.5

MICH

L 67-71

−17.5

TCU

L 64-66

−15.5

over 16under 18avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ohio State has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, Ohio State 5, even 0

Youngstown StBetterOhio State

G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30

OSUBig

G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93

G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

OSUBig

G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90

G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18

OSUBig

G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

OSUBig

G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65

F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

OSUBig

F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

Youngstown StBetterOhio State

YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1

OSUBig

OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3

YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8

OSUBig

OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

OSUBig

Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

OSUSmall

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

OSUSmall

Bench+1.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestYSU betterOSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Youngstown St

Guards

L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew

Forwards

J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew

Centers

K. AmoakoNew

Ohio State

Guards

J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew

Forwards

A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew

Centers

I. Njegovan11 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

YSU75.1 #162

OSU79.3 #76

Points per possession

YSU1.09 #160

OSU1.18 #31

Pace (possessions)

YSU68.9 #188

OSU67.2 #275

Shooting

Effective FG%

YSU53.6 #76

OSU56.2 #19

3-point %

YSU33.8 #184

OSU35.7 #72

3-point attempt rate

YSU49.4 #17

OSU40.1 #170

Free throw rate

YSU31.4 #272

OSU37.2 #122

Possessions

Turnover rate

YSU18.8 #314

OSU15.3 #91

Offensive rebound rate

YSU30.4 #182

OSU30.4 #185

Assists per game

YSU14.0 #144

OSU14.5 #117

Defense

Points allowed

YSU74.9 #185

OSU72.6 #120

Points allowed per possession

YSU1.09 #190

OSU1.08 #164

Opponent effective FG%

YSU52.3 #228

OSU50.2 #114

Opponent 3-point %

YSU35.5 #280

OSU31.9 #57

Turnovers forced

YSU17.8 #106

OSU15.6 #243

Defensive rebound rate

YSU69.3 #191

OSU70.0 #160

Steals per game

YSU6.7 #151

OSU4.8 #340

Blocks per game

YSU3.5 #146

OSU2.4 #311

YSU		OSU
Scoring
75.1 #162	Points per game	79.3 #76
1.09 #160	Points per possession	1.18 #31
68.9 #188	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #275
Shooting
53.6 #76	Effective FG%	56.2 #19
33.8 #184	3-point %	35.7 #72
49.4 #17	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #170
31.4 #272	Free throw rate	37.2 #122
Possessions
18.8 #314	Turnover rate	15.3 #91
30.4 #182	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #185
14.0 #144	Assists per game	14.5 #117
Defense
74.9 #185	Points allowed	72.6 #120
1.09 #190	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #164
52.3 #228	Opponent effective FG%	50.2 #114
35.5 #280	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #57
17.8 #106	Turnovers forced	15.6 #243
69.3 #191	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #160
6.7 #151	Steals per game	4.8 #340
3.5 #146	Blocks per game	2.4 #311

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Robert Morris53–68
L@ Green Bay63–85
L@ Milwaukee65–78
Wvs N Kentucky64–58
Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs TCU64–66
Lvs Michigan67–71
Wvs Iowa72–69
Wvs Indiana91–78
W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.

Youngstown State Penguins at Ohio State Buckeyes

What could decide it: OSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

Ohio State

Ohio State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Youngstown St

Ohio State