1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. CARK @ MISS
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Central Arkansas Bears at Ole Miss Rebels

The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#46MISSOle Miss
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonMISS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 85–64 · win probability MISS 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CARK 3, MISS 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MISSBig
CARK offense vs MISS defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings
MISSBig
MISS offense vs CARK defense
Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
CARKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, MISS 67.4%
CARKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, MISS 33.0. Allowed: CARK 30.1, MISS 41.2
CARKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: CARK 2, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MISSSmall
Home court
MISS at home. This season: MISS 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, MISS 16.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 48.7% and 35.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MISS -20.4—
Total—149.2—
Projected score—CARK 64.4 · MISS 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMISS -12.0—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreCARK 28.9 · MISS 40.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 0, Ole Miss 4, even 1
C ArkansasBetterOle Miss
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
MISSBig
G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Even
G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
MISSBig
G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
MISSBig
F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
MISSBig
F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
C ArkansasBetterOle Miss
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
MISSBig
MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
MISSBig
MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
MISSBig
Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
MISSBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
MISSBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCARK betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
Ole Miss
Guards
C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew
Forwards
D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew
Centers
M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKMISS
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game75.9 #145
1.13 #90Points per possession1.09 #157
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)69.5 #145
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%50.5 #217
35.5 #893-point %33.2 #221
48.7 #213-point attempt rate35.5 #258
31.2 #278Free throw rate33.0 #238
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate14.0 #23
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate28.3 #253
16.0 #46Assists per game13.5 #178
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed76.1 #219
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession1.10 #215
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%50.5 #127
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %33.5 #151
19.1 #45Turnovers forced16.5 #190
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate67.4 #285
8.5 #18Steals per game7.1 #118
1.9 #351Blocks per game4.3 #48
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas90–93
  • Wvs Alabama80–79
  • Wvs Georgia76–72
  • Wvs Texas76–66
  • Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.