Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 12:00 AM ETLloyd Noble Center · at Oklahoma

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Miss Valley St and Oklahoma
MVSU	This season	OU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OU 98–53 · win probability OU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

MVSU 0, OU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OUBig

OU offense vs MVSU defense

Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings

OUBig

MVSU offense vs OU defense

Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, OU the 32nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

OUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; OU 54.9 and allows 51.0

OUBig

Three-pointers

MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 30.2% and 43.6% of their shots

OUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, OU 32.8%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, OU 67.1%

OUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, OU 35.5. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, OU 34.9

OUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, OU 14.3%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, OU 15.5%

OUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, OU 43%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, OU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

OUSmall

Home court

OU at home. This season: OU 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), OU 69.4 (154th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OU -44.9	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	MVSU 53.4 · OU 98.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -26.6	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	MVSU 22.2 · OU 48.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU LWWWL	16-16	50%	11-8	—
OU WWLWL	17-20	46%	7-9	—

Venue/role: MVSU away; OU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU OUUOU	14-18	44%	2-30
OU UUOUO	18-19	49%	21-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
OU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miss Valley St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ WASH	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ ORE	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ ORST	No recent meeting

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs UNA	No recent meeting
Nov 13	vs FDU	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs CAM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MVSU 0–2 OUOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · OU has won the last 2 meetings · MVSU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 29, 2025-26	MVSU 69 @ OU 93	OU -44.5	MVSU W
Nov 10, 2023-24	MVSU 43 @ OU 82	OU -35.5	OU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

32 games played

Straight up

2-30

6% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-306%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L W W L L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U O U O O U U O U U O O U U U U U O O O U U O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 22	@CSUB	L 70-86	+21.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@TA&M	L 84-120	+42.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 204
Dec 3	@ULM	L 52-66	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 8	@KSU	L 49-108	+38.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 16	vsTAR	L 64-88	+17.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	@FSU	L 49-96	+40.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	@WVU	L 51-86	+42.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 137
Dec 29	@OU	L 69-93	+44.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsALST	L 69-89	+13.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	vsAAMU	L 51-71	+10.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	@PV	L 69-70	+18.5	W +17.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 12	@TXSO	L 51-84	+12.5	L −20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsBCU	L 63-79	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Jan 19	vsFAMU	L 48-62	+11.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 28	@SOU	L 69-80	+20.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsUAPB	L 70-78	+10.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsJKST	L 81-97	+8.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	vsALCN	L 66-74	+5.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	@AAMU	L 65-72	+15.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	@ALST	L 55-92	+16.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	vsPV	L 62-72	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsTXSO	W 72-71	+11.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 23	@GRAM	L 62-83	+16.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 28	@UAPB	W 70-69	+14.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 139
Mar 3	@ALCN	L 64-67	+9.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	@JKST	L 77-85	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 9	vsGRAM	L 52-77	+13.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+5.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+6.5

ULM

L 52-66

−4.5

KSU

L 49-108

−20.5

TAR

L 64-88

−6.5

FSU

L 49-96

−6.5

WVU

L 51-86

+7.5

L 69-93

+20.5

ALST

L 69-89

−6.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−9.5

L 69-70

+17.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−20.5

BCU

L 63-79

+0.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−2.5

SOU

L 69-80

+9.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+2.5

JKST

L 81-97

−7.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−2.5

AAMU

L 65-72

+8.5

ALST

L 55-92

−20.5

L 62-72

−1.5

TXSO

W 72-71

+12.5

GRAM

L 62-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 70-69

+15.5

ALCN

L 64-67

+6.5

JKST

L 77-85

+3.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+17.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+49.5

ULM

L 52-66

−31.5

KSU

L 49-108

−3.5

TAR

L 64-88

+9.5

FSU

L 49-96

−19.5

WVU

L 51-86

−0.5

L 69-93

+8.5

ALST

L 69-89

+13.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−13.5

L 69-70

−13.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−7.5

BCU

L 63-79

−2.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−29.5

SOU

L 69-80

+7.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+4.5

JKST

L 81-97

+34.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−0.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 55-92

+4.5

L 62-72

−19.5

TXSO

W 72-71

−0.5

GRAM

L 62-83

+8.5

UAPB

W 70-69

−8.5

ALCN

L 64-67

−8.5

JKST

L 77-85

+17.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−6.5

over 14under 18avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

37 games played

Straight up

21-16

57% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1657%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U U O O O O U O U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	@MSST	L 53-72	+1.5	L −17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@TA&M	L 76-83	+4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	vsFLA	L 79-96	+7.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsALA	L 81-83	+5.5	W +3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 20	@SC	L 76-85	-2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@MIZ	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	vsARK	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	167.5	U 162
Jan 31	vsTEX	L 69-79	+1.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 4	@UK	L 78-94	+8.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	@VAN	W 92-91	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 14	vsUGA	W 94-78	-1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 18	@TENN	L 66-89	+11.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	vsTA&M	L 71-75	+1.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 24	vsAUB	W 91-79	+3.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	@LSU	W 83-67	+1.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	vsMIZ	W 80-64	+1.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	@TEX	W 88-85	+6.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsSC	W 86-74	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsTA&M	W 83-63	+2.5	W +22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsARK	L 79-82	+6.5	W +3.5	166.5	U 161
Apr 1	vsCOLO	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 176
Apr 4	vsBAY	W 82-69	+1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 151
Apr 5	vsWVU	L 82-89	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−17.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−2.5

FLA

L 79-96

−9.5

ALA

L 81-83

+3.5

L 76-85

−11.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+3.5

ARK

L 79-83

−0.5

TEX

L 69-79

−8.5

L 78-94

−7.5

VAN

W 92-91

+12.5

UGA

W 94-78

+14.5

TENN

L 66-89

−11.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−2.5

AUB

W 91-79

+15.5

LSU

W 83-67

+17.5

MIZ

W 80-64

+17.5

TEX

W 88-85

+9.5

W 86-74

+4.5

TA&M

W 83-63

+22.5

ARK

L 79-82

+3.5

COLO

W 90-86

−5.5

BAY

W 82-69

+14.5

WVU

L 82-89

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−33.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−6.5

FLA

L 79-96

+17.5

ALA

L 81-83

−13.5

L 76-85

+10.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+23.5

ARK

L 79-83

−5.5

TEX

L 69-79

−7.5

L 78-94

+19.5

VAN

W 92-91

+23.5

UGA

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

L 66-89

+5.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−19.5

AUB

W 91-79

+12.5

LSU

W 83-67

−5.5

MIZ

W 80-64

−9.5

TEX

W 88-85

+18.5

W 86-74

+10.5

TA&M

W 83-63

−16.5

ARK

L 79-82

−5.5

COLO

W 90-86

+13.5

BAY

W 82-69

−8.5

WVU

L 82-89

+29.5

over 18under 19avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, Oklahoma 1, even 4

Miss Valley StBetterOklahoma

G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20

OUBig

G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93

G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92

G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60

G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95

F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84

Miss Valley StBetterOklahoma

MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5

OUBig

OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9

MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3

OUBig

OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6

Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players

OUBig

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMVSU betterOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Miss Valley St

Guards

T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew

Forwards

T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew

Centers

T. WuNew

Oklahoma

Guards

B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew

Forwards

D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew

Centers

Y. Yaak15 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MVSU63.2 #356

OU82.9 #29

Points per possession

MVSU0.90 #364

OU1.19 #23

Pace (possessions)

MVSU70.2 #111

OU69.4 #154

Shooting

Effective FG%

MVSU45.2 #359

OU54.9 #40

3-point %

MVSU29.5 #346

OU36.5 #41

3-point attempt rate

MVSU30.2 #351

OU43.6 #97

Free throw rate

MVSU33.9 #215

OU35.5 #161

Possessions

Turnover rate

MVSU21.9 #361

OU14.3 #33

Offensive rebound rate

MVSU26.4 #313

OU32.8 #92

Assists per game

MVSU11.9 #296

OU14.5 #116

Defense

Points allowed

MVSU83.7 #353

OU77.4 #248

Points allowed per possession

MVSU1.20 #355

OU1.12 #271

Opponent effective FG%

MVSU55.5 #341

OU51.0 #162

Opponent 3-point %

MVSU37.2 #346

OU34.1 #189

Turnovers forced

MVSU17.1 #142

OU15.5 #247

Defensive rebound rate

MVSU64.5 #346

OU67.1 #296

Steals per game

MVSU7.1 #119

OU6.3 #193

Blocks per game

MVSU2.6 #300

OU3.9 #89

MVSU		OU
Scoring
63.2 #356	Points per game	82.9 #29
0.90 #364	Points per possession	1.19 #23
70.2 #111	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #154
Shooting
45.2 #359	Effective FG%	54.9 #40
29.5 #346	3-point %	36.5 #41
30.2 #351	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #97
33.9 #215	Free throw rate	35.5 #161
Possessions
21.9 #361	Turnover rate	14.3 #33
26.4 #313	Offensive rebound rate	32.8 #92
11.9 #296	Assists per game	14.5 #116
Defense
83.7 #353	Points allowed	77.4 #248
1.20 #355	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #271
55.5 #341	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #162
37.2 #346	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #189
17.1 #142	Turnovers forced	15.5 #247
64.5 #346	Defensive rebound rate	67.1 #296
7.1 #119	Steals per game	6.3 #193
2.6 #300	Blocks per game	3.9 #89

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Grambling52–77
L@ Jackson St77–85
L@ Alcorn St64–67
W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia82–89
Wvs Baylor82–69
Wvs Colorado90–86
Lvs Arkansas79–82
Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Oklahoma Sooners

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Miss Valley St

Oklahoma