Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Washington Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 10:00 PM ETAlaska Airlines Arena · at Washington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Miss Valley St and Washington
MVSU	This season	WASH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WASH 94–52 · win probability WASH 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WASH has more of the edges

MVSU 0, WASH 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WASHBig

MVSU offense vs WASH defense

Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 48th, on the model’s ratings

WASHBig

WASH offense vs MVSU defense

Offense 57th of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, WASH the 46th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WASHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, WASH 34.6%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, WASH 71.5%

WASHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; WASH 51.2 and allows 50.1

WASHBig

Three-pointers

MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; WASH hits 31.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 30.2% and 34.6% of their shots

WASHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, WASH 30.1. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, WASH 31.0

WASHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, WASH 34%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, WASH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

WASHSmall

Home court

WASH at home. This season: WASH 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away

WASHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, WASH 15.3%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, WASH 14.4%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), WASH 68.8 (196th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WASH -41.4	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	MVSU 52.4 · WASH 93.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WASH -24.5	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	MVSU 22 · WASH 46.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU LWWWL	16-16	50%	11-8	—
WASH LWLWW	20-13	61%	9-7	—

Venue/role: MVSU away; WASH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU OUUOU	14-18	44%	2-30
WASH OOOOO	15-18	45%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
WASH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miss Valley St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ ORE	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ ORST	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ ARK	No recent meeting

Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ UTAH	W74–65LU
Nov 19	vs UTU	W78–67LO
Nov 23	vs BYU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

32 games played

Straight up

2-30

6% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-306%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L W W L L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U O U O O U U O U U O O U U U U U O O O U U O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 22	@CSUB	L 70-86	+21.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@TA&M	L 84-120	+42.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 204
Dec 3	@ULM	L 52-66	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 8	@KSU	L 49-108	+38.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 16	vsTAR	L 64-88	+17.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	@FSU	L 49-96	+40.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	@WVU	L 51-86	+42.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 137
Dec 29	@OU	L 69-93	+44.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsALST	L 69-89	+13.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	vsAAMU	L 51-71	+10.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	@PV	L 69-70	+18.5	W +17.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 12	@TXSO	L 51-84	+12.5	L −20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsBCU	L 63-79	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Jan 19	vsFAMU	L 48-62	+11.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 28	@SOU	L 69-80	+20.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsUAPB	L 70-78	+10.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsJKST	L 81-97	+8.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	vsALCN	L 66-74	+5.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	@AAMU	L 65-72	+15.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	@ALST	L 55-92	+16.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	vsPV	L 62-72	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsTXSO	W 72-71	+11.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 23	@GRAM	L 62-83	+16.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 28	@UAPB	W 70-69	+14.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 139
Mar 3	@ALCN	L 64-67	+9.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	@JKST	L 77-85	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 9	vsGRAM	L 52-77	+13.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+5.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+6.5

ULM

L 52-66

−4.5

KSU

L 49-108

−20.5

TAR

L 64-88

−6.5

FSU

L 49-96

−6.5

WVU

L 51-86

+7.5

L 69-93

+20.5

ALST

L 69-89

−6.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−9.5

L 69-70

+17.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−20.5

BCU

L 63-79

+0.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−2.5

SOU

L 69-80

+9.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+2.5

JKST

L 81-97

−7.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−2.5

AAMU

L 65-72

+8.5

ALST

L 55-92

−20.5

L 62-72

−1.5

TXSO

W 72-71

+12.5

GRAM

L 62-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 70-69

+15.5

ALCN

L 64-67

+6.5

JKST

L 77-85

+3.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+17.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+49.5

ULM

L 52-66

−31.5

KSU

L 49-108

−3.5

TAR

L 64-88

+9.5

FSU

L 49-96

−19.5

WVU

L 51-86

−0.5

L 69-93

+8.5

ALST

L 69-89

+13.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−13.5

L 69-70

−13.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−7.5

BCU

L 63-79

−2.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−29.5

SOU

L 69-80

+7.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+4.5

JKST

L 81-97

+34.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−0.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 55-92

+4.5

L 62-72

−19.5

TXSO

W 72-71

−0.5

GRAM

L 62-83

+8.5

UAPB

W 70-69

−8.5

ALCN

L 64-67

−8.5

JKST

L 77-85

+17.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−6.5

over 14under 18avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Washington

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W L W W W L L W W L W W L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

W L L W L W L W W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

U O U U O O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O O U U U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 27	vsNEV	W 83-66	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsCOLO	L 68-81	-2.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 3	vsUCLA	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	@USC	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 160
Dec 13	vsSUU	W 105-69	-25.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 174
Dec 19	@SEA	L 66-70	-7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsUSD	W 86-56	-18.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsUTAH	W 74-65	-12.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 4	@IU	L 80-90	+9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@PUR	L 73-81	+16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 11	vsOSU	W 81-74	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 155
Jan 14	vsMICH	L 72-82	+12.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsMSU	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 21	@NEB	L 66-76	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 25	vsORE	W 72-57	-7.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 29	@ILL	L 66-75	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 141
Jan 31	@NU	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsIOWA	L 74-84	+2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 7	@UCLA	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 11	vsPSU	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	vsMINN	W 69-57	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 21	@MD	L 60-64	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 24	@RUTG	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsWIS	L 73-90	+1.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 4	vsUSC	W 91-72	-5.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 163
Mar 7	@ORE	L 79-85	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsUSC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 12	vsWIS	L 82-85	+6.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

NEV

W 83-66

+13.5

COLO

L 68-81

−15.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+0.5

USC

W 84-76

+12.5

SUU

W 105-69

+10.5

SEA

L 66-70

−11.5

USD

W 86-56

+11.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−3.5

L 80-90

−0.5

PUR

L 73-81

+8.5

OSU

W 81-74

+5.5

MICH

L 72-82

+2.5

MSU

L 63-80

−13.5

NEB

L 66-76

+0.5

ORE

W 72-57

+7.5

ILL

L 66-75

+3.5

W 76-62

+15.5

IOWA

L 74-84

−7.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+0.5

PSU

L 60-63

−15.5

MINN

W 69-57

+5.5

L 60-64

−8.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+2.5

WIS

L 73-90

−15.5

USC

W 91-72

+13.5

ORE

L 79-85

−7.5

USC

W 83-79

+0.5

WIS

L 82-85

+3.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

NEV

W 83-66

+3.5

COLO

L 68-81

−2.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+20.5

USC

W 84-76

+5.5

SUU

W 105-69

+20.5

SEA

L 66-70

−15.5

USD

W 86-56

−17.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−18.5

L 80-90

+17.5

PUR

L 73-81

−0.5

OSU

W 81-74

−0.5

MICH

L 72-82

−11.5

MSU

L 63-80

−2.5

NEB

L 66-76

−10.5

ORE

W 72-57

−14.5

ILL

L 66-75

−12.5

W 76-62

−8.5

IOWA

L 74-84

+16.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+5.5

PSU

L 60-63

−30.5

MINN

W 69-57

−12.5

L 60-64

−19.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+11.5

WIS

L 73-90

+9.5

USC

W 91-72

+12.5

ORE

L 79-85

+18.5

USC

W 83-79

+7.5

WIS

L 82-85

+9.5

over 15under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Washington has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, Washington 1, even 4

Miss Valley StBetterWashington

G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20

WASHBig

G R. Beasley TR13.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 84

G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G W. Yates12.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 68

G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G L. Watts TR11.8 pts · 6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 87

G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G P. Friedrichsen TR10.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G T. Comer TR11 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Score 68

Miss Valley StBetterWashington

MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5

WASHBig

WASH defense48th of 366 · +2.2

MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3

WASHBig

WASH offense57th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players

WASHBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 5 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMVSU betterWASH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Miss Valley St

Guards

T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew

Forwards

T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew

Centers

T. WuNew

Washington

Guards

R. Beasley34 min · TRW. Yates31 minL. Watts27 min · TRP. Friedrichsen26 min · TRT. Comer25 min · TRH. Zrno19 min · TR

Forwards

N. Dzepina11 minJ. Rencher9 minM. TraoreNewW. BragaNew

Centers

L. Sommerville15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MVSU63.2 #356

WASH77.1 #114

Points per possession

MVSU0.90 #364

WASH1.12 #103

Pace (possessions)

MVSU70.2 #111

WASH68.8 #196

Shooting

Effective FG%

MVSU45.2 #359

WASH51.2 #187

3-point %

MVSU29.5 #346

WASH31.5 #307

3-point attempt rate

MVSU30.2 #351

WASH34.6 #284

Free throw rate

MVSU33.9 #215

WASH30.1 #308

Possessions

Turnover rate

MVSU21.9 #361

WASH15.3 #81

Offensive rebound rate

MVSU26.4 #313

WASH34.6 #56

Assists per game

MVSU11.9 #296

WASH13.9 #152

Defense

Points allowed

MVSU83.7 #353

WASH73.6 #146

Points allowed per possession

MVSU1.20 #355

WASH1.07 #140

Opponent effective FG%

MVSU55.5 #341

WASH50.1 #108

Opponent 3-point %

MVSU37.2 #346

WASH33.6 #163

Turnovers forced

MVSU17.1 #142

WASH14.4 #325

Defensive rebound rate

MVSU64.5 #346

WASH71.5 #84

Steals per game

MVSU7.1 #119

WASH5.7 #271

Blocks per game

MVSU2.6 #300

WASH4.2 #58

MVSU		WASH
Scoring
63.2 #356	Points per game	77.1 #114
0.90 #364	Points per possession	1.12 #103
70.2 #111	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #196
Shooting
45.2 #359	Effective FG%	51.2 #187
29.5 #346	3-point %	31.5 #307
30.2 #351	3-point attempt rate	34.6 #284
33.9 #215	Free throw rate	30.1 #308
Possessions
21.9 #361	Turnover rate	15.3 #81
26.4 #313	Offensive rebound rate	34.6 #56
11.9 #296	Assists per game	13.9 #152
Defense
83.7 #353	Points allowed	73.6 #146
1.20 #355	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #140
55.5 #341	Opponent effective FG%	50.1 #108
37.2 #346	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #163
17.1 #142	Turnovers forced	14.4 #325
64.5 #346	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #84
7.1 #119	Steals per game	5.7 #271
2.6 #300	Blocks per game	4.2 #58

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Grambling52–77
L@ Jackson St77–85
L@ Alcorn St64–67
W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

Washington

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wisconsin82–85
Wvs USC83–79
L@ Oregon79–85
Wvs USC91–72
Lvs Wisconsin73–90

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Washington Huskies

What could decide it: WASH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

Washington

Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Miss Valley St

Washington