New Hampshire Wildcats at Brown Bears: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · at Brown

#156BRWNBrown

LineBRWN -8.5moved 1 toward UNH

Total143.5up 1 from 142.5

Season records: New Hampshire and Brown
UNH	This season	BRWN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRWN 76–66 · win probability BRWN 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

BRWN -8.5

moved 1 toward UNH

Total

143.5

model 141.3 · Under by 2

Model edge

BRWN by 1.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

UNH 0, BRWN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BRWNBig

UNH offense vs BRWN defense

Offense 300th of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings

BRWNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNH 47%, BRWN 100%. Transfers in: UNH 3, BRWN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

BRWNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNH 46.7 and allows 53.5; BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3

Context

Schedule so far

UNH has played the 237th-hardest schedule, BRWN the 176th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BRWNSmall

Home court

BRWN at home. This season: BRWN 0-0 at home, UNH 0-0 away

Even

BRWN offense vs UNH defense

Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 255th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNH 28.5, BRWN 28.1. Allowed: UNH 35.8, BRWN 37.6

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UNH plays 68.9 a game (186th fastest), BRWN 68.0 (229th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

UNH hits 30.5% and allows 34.3%; BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 36.3% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNH 25.7%, BRWN 29.0%. Defensive: UNH 73.1%, BRWN 70.0%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNH 16.5%, BRWN 19.4%. Forced: UNH 15.8%, BRWN 18.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 7 to 9.5	1806	78%	49%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	832	79%	51%	51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog	4513	74%	51%	50%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBRWN -9.5

1 → UNH

NowBRWN -8.5

1 pt toward UNH

Total

Open142.5

▲ 1

Now143.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

UNH +360 · BRWN -500

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened BRWN -9.5 · now BRWN -8.5 · moved 1 toward UNHmodel BRWN -10

model BRWN -10

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 143.5TotalUnder 143.5

Bets

46%54%

Money

45%55%

UNHWinner

BRWN

Bets

99%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UNH	BRWN	Over	Under	UNH	BRWN
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-8.5-115	+8.5-105	143.5-110	143.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-9.5-110	+9.5-115	142.5-129	142.5+100	+360	-530
BovadaBovada	-8.5-115	+8.5-105	143.5-110	143.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-8.5-112	+8.5-108	143.5-110	143.5-110	+360	-470
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-8.5-111	+8.5-101	143.5-108	143.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	BRWN -8.5	BRWN -10.0	BRWN +1.5
Total	143.5	141.3	Under 2.2
Projected score	—	UNH 65.7 · BRWN 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -5.8	—
1H total	66.2	—
1H projected score	UNH 30.2 · BRWN 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNH LLLWL	12-16	43%	8-9	9-10
BRWN WWLWL	13-12	52%	5-7	5-3

Venue/role: UNH away, as underdog; BRWN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNH UUOOO	15-13	54%	7-21
BRWN OOOOU	13-12	52%	7-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNH	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
BRWN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Hampshire

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ RID	No recent meeting
Nov 8	vs SHU	L63–80LU
Nov 15	@ BC	W74–71WO

Brown

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs BU	L77–90LO
Nov 8	@ LEH	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs CAN	W83–76LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNH 1–3 BRWNBRWN leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · BRWN has won the last 2 meetings · UNH 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2025-26	BRWN 59 @ UNH 47	UNH +5.5	BRWN W
Nov 15, 2024-25	UNH 58 @ BRWN 76	BRWN -8.5	BRWN W
Nov 14, 2023-24	BRWN 64 @ UNH 82	UNH +5.5	UNH W
Dec 21, 2022-23	UNH 51 @ BRWN 67	BRWN -6.5	BRWN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Hampshire

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L W W W W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1643%

L W W L L W W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1354%

U O U O U U U O U O U O O O U O O U O U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLEM	L 38-88	+29.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 9	@HARV	L 75-86	+15.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 15	@GMU	L 44-61	+24.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	@PROV	L 66-98	+29.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsBRWN	L 47-59	+5.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 106
Nov 30	@FAIR	L 68-72	+9.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 3	@DART	L 68-69	+8.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsBU	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 17	vsSTO	W 59-58	-3.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 117
Dec 21	@SLU	L 79-93	+34.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 172
Dec 30	@NEB	L 55-86	+31.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUVM	L 61-80	+7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	@NJIT	L 76-80	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 156
Jan 10	@UMBC	L 74-75	+6.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 19	@ME	W 65-48	+1.5	W +18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsBING	W 88-82	-9.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUALB	W 80-72	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsUML	W 66-61	-3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 31	@BRY	L 84-92	+1.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 176
Feb 7	@UVM	L 57-80	+9.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	vsNJIT	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsUMBC	L 63-85	+2.5	L −19.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 19	@UML	L 56-78	+3.5	L −18.5	151.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsME	L 58-61	-3.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@BING	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 28	@UALB	L 61-84	+3.5	L −19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	vsBRY	W 88-83	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 171
Mar 7	@UMBC	L 69-84	+12.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+4.5

GMU

L 44-61

+7.5

PROV

L 66-98

−2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−6.5

FAIR

L 68-72

+5.5

DART

L 68-69

+7.5

W 88-82

+11.5

STO

W 59-58

−2.5

SLU

L 79-93

+20.5

NEB

L 55-86

+0.5

UVM

L 61-80

−11.5

NJIT

L 76-80

−6.5

UMBC

L 74-75

+5.5

W 65-48

+18.5

BING

W 88-82

−3.5

UALB

W 80-72

+5.5

UML

W 66-61

+1.5

BRY

L 84-92

−6.5

UVM

L 57-80

−13.5

NJIT

L 70-76

−8.5

UMBC

L 63-85

−19.5

UML

L 56-78

−18.5

L 58-61

−6.5

BING

L 63-65

−4.5

UALB

L 61-84

−19.5

BRY

W 88-83

+2.5

UMBC

L 69-84

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+13.5

GMU

L 44-61

−39.5

PROV

L 66-98

+2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−30.5

FAIR

L 68-72

−7.5

DART

L 68-69

−10.5

W 88-82

+35.5

STO

W 59-58

−21.5

SLU

L 79-93

+14.5

NEB

L 55-86

−5.5

UVM

L 61-80

+1.5

NJIT

L 76-80

+18.5

UMBC

L 74-75

+5.5

W 65-48

−16.5

BING

W 88-82

+34.5

UALB

W 80-72

+14.5

UML

W 66-61

−19.5

BRY

L 84-92

+44.5

UVM

L 57-80

−1.5

NJIT

L 70-76

+0.5

UMBC

L 63-85

+1.5

UML

L 56-78

−17.5

L 58-61

−16.5

BING

L 63-65

−13.5

UALB

L 61-84

+6.5

BRY

W 88-83

+35.5

UMBC

L 69-84

+10.5

over 15under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Brown

25 games played

Straight up

7-18

28% wins

Against the spread

13-12

52% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-12

52% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1828%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1252%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1252%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 20	vsPRIN	W 80-71	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	@COLU	L 62-80	+5.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	@COR	L 80-86	+9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsPENN	L 61-82	-1.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+6.5

COLU

L 62-80

−12.5

COR

L 80-86

+3.5

PENN

L 61-82

−22.5

covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+21.5

COLU

L 62-80

+1.5

COR

L 80-86

+9.5

PENN

L 61-82

−3.5

over 13under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Brown has the better starters

Position by position: New Hampshire 0, Brown 1, even 4

New HampshireBetterBrown

G T. Bike7.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

Even

G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47

G E. Oliver-Bush TR3.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

Even

G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

F D. Poser6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

Even

G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25

F J. Squire5.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

Even

G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27

F D. McKenna TR3.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 47

BRWNSmall

F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72

New HampshireBetterBrown

UNH offense300th of 366 · -9.3

BRWNBig

BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2

UNH defense255th of 366 · -6.7

Even

BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7

Backcourt-3.5 · 2 players

UNHBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.5 · 3 players

BRWNBig

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

Even

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNH betterBRWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Hampshire

Guards

T. Bike24 minE. Oliver-Bush16 min · TRM. Blackley2 minA. SquireNewJ. ColemanNewJ. FaumuinaNew

Forwards

D. Poser29 minJ. Squire27 minD. McKenna11 min · TRR. Zan8 min · TRJ. O'Neill6 minK. MyersNew

Centers

G. Xanthopoulos6 min

Brown

Guards

J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min

Forwards

N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNH66.6 #339

BRWN67.2 #330

Points per possession

UNH0.96 #347

BRWN0.98 #338

Pace (possessions)

UNH68.9 #186

BRWN68.0 #229

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNH46.7 #344

BRWN48.6 #299

3-point %

UNH30.5 #333

BRWN30.3 #338

3-point attempt rate

UNH43.1 #110

BRWN36.3 #244

Free throw rate

UNH28.5 #338

BRWN28.1 #342

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNH16.5 #166

BRWN19.4 #334

Offensive rebound rate

UNH25.7 #329

BRWN29.0 #236

Assists per game

UNH10.6 #348

BRWN14.8 #99

Defense

Points allowed

UNH76.4 #227

BRWN72.4 #115

Points allowed per possession

UNH1.11 #247

BRWN1.07 #134

Opponent effective FG%

UNH53.5 #282

BRWN51.3 #176

Opponent 3-point %

UNH34.3 #204

BRWN33.5 #157

Turnovers forced

UNH15.8 #227

BRWN18.8 #57

Defensive rebound rate

UNH73.1 #32

BRWN70.0 #164

Steals per game

UNH6.1 #222

BRWN7.5 #82

Blocks per game

UNH2.0 #345

BRWN3.8 #104

UNH		BRWN
Scoring
66.6 #339	Points per game	67.2 #330
0.96 #347	Points per possession	0.98 #338
68.9 #186	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #229
Shooting
46.7 #344	Effective FG%	48.6 #299
30.5 #333	3-point %	30.3 #338
43.1 #110	3-point attempt rate	36.3 #244
28.5 #338	Free throw rate	28.1 #342
Possessions
16.5 #166	Turnover rate	19.4 #334
25.7 #329	Offensive rebound rate	29.0 #236
10.6 #348	Assists per game	14.8 #99
Defense
76.4 #227	Points allowed	72.4 #115
1.11 #247	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #134
53.5 #282	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #176
34.3 #204	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #157
15.8 #227	Turnovers forced	18.8 #57
73.1 #32	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #164
6.1 #222	Steals per game	7.5 #82
2.0 #345	Blocks per game	3.8 #104

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Hampshire

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC69–84
Wvs Bryant88–83
L@ UAlbany61–84
L@ Binghamton63–65
Lvs Maine58–61

A week or more of rest.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn61–82
L@ Cornell80–86
L@ Columbia62–80
Wvs Princeton80–71
W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.