Nutter Center · at Wright St
#220AFAir Force
@
#180WRSTWright St
LineWRST -10.5moved 1 toward WRST
Total159.5up 3 from 156.5
Season records: Air Force and Wright St
AFThis seasonWRST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WRST 75–69 · win probability WRST 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
WRST -10.5
moved 1 toward WRST
Total
159.5
model 143.9 · Under by 15.5
Model edge
AF by 3.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
59% WRST
52% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WRST has more of the edges

AF 1, WRST 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WRSTBig
Three-pointers
AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%; WRST hits 36.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 41.8% and 34.2% of their shots
WRSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: AF 21.4%, WRST 32.8%. Defensive: AF 68.7%, WRST 70.6%
WRSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: AF 48.9 and allows 56.4; WRST 54.3 and allows 52.4
WRSTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: AF 21.9%, WRST 16.1%. Forced: AF 15.1%, WRST 16.6%
Context
Schedule so far
AF has played the 119th-hardest schedule, WRST the 264th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AFBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: AF 100%, WRST 32%. Transfers in: AF 0, WRST 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
WRSTSmall
AF offense vs WRST defense
Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 215th, on the model’s ratings
WRSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: AF 35.1, WRST 37.4. Allowed: AF 36.6, WRST 33.3
WRSTSmall
Home court
WRST at home. This season: WRST 0-0 at home, AF 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: AF plays 67.4 a game (259th fastest), WRST 69.1 (171st). Faster games mean more points
Even
WRST offense vs AF defense
Offense 148th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward WRST
Total
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
AF +450 · WRST -625
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened WRST -9.5 · now WRST -10.5 · moved 1 toward WRSTmodel WRST -7
Opened 156.5 · now 159.5 · moved 3 upmodel 144
Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
AF +10.5SpreadWRST -10.5
Bets
Money
Over 159.5TotalUnder 159.5
Bets
Money
Money is 20 pts ahead of bets on Over 159.5
AFWinnerWRST
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
AFWRSTOverUnderAFWRST
BetMGMMGM-10.5-105+10.5-115159.5-110159.5-110+450-625
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-10.5-105+10.5-115159.5-105159.5-115——
BetRiversBetRivers-10.5-118+10.5-108160.5-112160.5-114+375-560
BetUSBetUS-10.5-105+10.5-115160-110160-110——
BovadaBovada-10.5-105+10.5-115159-110159-110+425-600
DraftKingsDK-10.5-105+10.5-115159.5-110159.5-110+470-650
FanDuelFD-10.5-110+10.5-110159.5-115159.5-105+450-630
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-10.5-101+10.5-111159.5-103159.5-113——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadWRST -10.5WRST -6.9AF +3.6
Total159.5143.9Under 15.6
Projected score—AF 68.5 · WRST 75.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadWRST -4.0—
1H total67.3—
1H projected scoreAF 31.7 · WRST 35.6—

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Air Force 1, Wright St 1, even 3
Air ForceBetterWright St
G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77
Even
G C. O'Hara TR14.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 66
G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18
Even
G D. Pangonis8.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
Even
G C. Traylor TR3.8 pts · 1.1 reb · 2 ast Score 21
F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39
WRSTBig
G A. Holden5.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 78
F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82
AFSmall
F K. Pickett8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 67
Air ForceBetterWright St
AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9
WRSTSmall
WRST defense215th of 366 · -5.6
AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3
Even
WRST offense148th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-2.5 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players
WRSTSmall
Frontcourt+0.6 · 1 player
Bench-7.9 · 5 players
WRSTBig
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestAF betterWRST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Air Force
Guards
K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew
Forwards
L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min
Centers
W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew
Wright St
Guards
C. O'Hara33 min · TRD. Pangonis27 minC. Traylor17 min · TRA. Holden14 minI. Milijasevic8 min · TRP. DouglasNew
Forwards
K. Pickett23 minS. JohnsonNewN. LewisNew
Centers
N. Djapa10 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
AFWRST
Scoring
61.5 #362Points per game79.8 #72
0.91 #363Points per possession1.16 #54
67.4 #259Pace (possessions)69.1 #171
Shooting
48.9 #292Effective FG%54.3 #56
30.6 #3323-point %36.4 #44
41.8 #1393-point attempt rate34.2 #290
35.1 #174Free throw rate37.4 #120
Possessions
21.9 #362Turnover rate16.1 #149
21.4 #360Offensive rebound rate32.8 #91
12.2 #273Assists per game13.2 #199
Defense
79.9 #316Points allowed75.6 #206
1.19 #352Points allowed per possession1.09 #201
56.4 #350Opponent effective FG%52.4 #238
37.6 #352Opponent 3-point %34.3 #203
15.1 #280Turnovers forced16.6 #179
68.7 #215Defensive rebound rate70.6 #129
5.6 #281Steals per game7.1 #114
2.4 #316Blocks per game4.4 #47

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada45–80
  • L@ Nevada59–74
  • Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
  • L@ Wyoming62–66
  • Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.

Wright St

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Virginia73–82
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy66–63
  • Wvs N Kentucky103–90
  • Wvs Cleveland St90–61
  • W@ N Kentucky92–91

A week or more of rest.