Charleston Southern Buccaneers at South Florida Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETYuengling Center · at South Florida

LineUSF -19.5no move

Total158.5up 1 from 157.5

Season records: Charleston So and South Florida
CHSO	This season	USF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USF 91–69 · win probability USF 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

USF -19.5

no move since the open

Total

158.5

model 159.6 · Over by 1

Model edge

USF by 2.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

81% CHSO

78% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USF has more of the edges

CHSO 2, USF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USFBig

USF offense vs CHSO defense

Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 358th, on the model’s ratings

USFBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHSO 18.6%, USF 15.1%. Forced: CHSO 12.8%, USF 19.1%

Context

Schedule so far

CHSO has played the 297th-hardest schedule, USF the 89th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHSOBig

Three-pointers

CHSO hits 35.6% and allows 31.9%; USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 49.5% and 43.8% of their shots

USFBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHSO 30.5, USF 40.4. Allowed: CHSO 43.3, USF 39.0

USFBig

CHSO offense vs USF defense

Offense 268th of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings

CHSOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHSO 54.1 and allows 47.0; USF 50.6 and allows 48.8

USFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHSO 29.4%, USF 38.1%. Defensive: CHSO 69.7%, USF 68.1%

USFSmall

Home court

USF at home. This season: USF 0-0 at home, CHSO 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHSO 22%, USF 14%. Transfers in: CHSO 3, USF 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 75 possessions: CHSO plays 75.1 a game (5th fastest), USF 74.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.5	993	94%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	632	93%	49%	53%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5	1555	74%	51%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUSF -19.5

no move

NowUSF -19.5

No change since the open

Total

Open157.5

▲ 1

Now158.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

CHSO +1300 · USF -6200

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened USF -19.5 · now USF -18.5 · moved 1 toward CHSOmodel USF -22

model USF -22

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

CHSO +19.5Spread

USF -19.5

Bets

81%19%

Money

78%22%

Over 158.5TotalUnder 158.5

Bets

37%63%

Money

38%62%

CHSOWinner

USF

Bets

99%

Money

97%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CHSO	USF	Over	Under	CHSO	USF
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-18.5+100	+18.5-120	158.5-110	158.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-19.5-117	+19.5-109	158.5-118	158.5-108	+1400	-10000
BovadaBovada	-18.5+100	+18.5-120	158.5-110	158.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-19.5-112	+19.5-108	158.5-110	158.5-110	+1200	-2400
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-18.5+104	+18.5-116	158.5-108	158.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 8:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	USF -19.5	USF -22.2	USF +2.7
Total	158.5	159.6	Over 1.1
Projected score	—	CHSO 68.7 · USF 90.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USF -13.1	—
1H total	74.6	—
1H projected score	CHSO 30.8 · USF 43.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHSO LLWWW	14-15	48%	7-9	10-8
USF LWWWL	18-15	55%	9-5	16-12

Venue/role: CHSO away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHSO UOOOO	19-10	66%	12-17
USF OUUUO	15-18	45%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHSO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
USF	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Charleston So

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ WAKE	L56–71WU
Nov 14	vs WGA	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs WOF	No recent meeting

South Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ DEP	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs JOES	W75–62WO
Nov 14	vs COPP	W100–50WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CHSO 0–1 USFUSF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CHSO 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2022-23	CHSO 59 @ USF 79	USF -10.5	USF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Charleston So

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-10

66% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

L W L L W W W L W W W W L L W W L L L L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1066%

O O U O O U U U U O O U O O U O O O O U U O O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VT	L 67-98	+18.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 10	@CIT	W 96-86	-2.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 13	@AAMU	L 64-68	+1.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 14	vsLIN	L 77-83	+2.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsIUIN	W 103-91	+1.5	W +13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	@ECU	W 77-65	+13.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 28	@SC	L 62-74	+17.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	@UTM	L 56-73	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 129
Dec 8	vsSCST	W 84-44	-12.5	W +27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 18	vsUNF	W 113-90	-10.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 203
Dec 21	@FUR	L 76-84	+10.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 28	@RICH	W 77-72	+11.5	W +16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	@GWEB	W 89-79	-12.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsUNCA	W 86-83	-4.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 169
Jan 7	@WIN	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsHPU	L 82-84	+8.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 14	vsUPST	L 81-86	-6.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 21	@PRES	L 83-87	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 170
Jan 23	@LONG	L 79-81	+1.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsRAD	L 75-84	+1.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 159
Feb 4	@HPU	L 55-80	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 135
Feb 7	@UPST	L 94-100	-1.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsPRES	W 84-67	-1.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 151
Feb 14	@RAD	L 80-90	+4.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 170
Feb 17	vsGWEB	W 75-66	-16.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsLONG	L 96-107	-2.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 26	vsWIN	W 86-84	+8.5	W +10.5	164.5	O 170
Feb 28	@UNCA	W 92-75	+4.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 167
Mar 6	vsWIN	L 81-86	+6.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-98

−12.5

CIT

W 96-86

+7.5

AAMU

L 64-68

−2.5

LIN

L 77-83

−3.5

IUIN

W 103-91

+13.5

ECU

W 77-65

+25.5

L 62-74

+5.5

UTM

L 56-73

−13.5

SCST

W 84-44

+27.5

UNF

W 113-90

+12.5

FUR

L 76-84

+2.5

RICH

W 77-72

+16.5

GWEB

W 89-79

−2.5

UNCA

W 86-83

−1.5

WIN

L 77-81

+4.5

HPU

L 82-84

+6.5

UPST

L 81-86

−11.5

PRES

L 83-87

−5.5

LONG

L 79-81

−0.5

RAD

L 75-84

−7.5

HPU

L 55-80

−10.5

UPST

L 94-100

−7.5

PRES

W 84-67

+15.5

RAD

L 80-90

−5.5

GWEB

W 75-66

−7.5

LONG

L 96-107

−13.5

WIN

W 86-84

+10.5

UNCA

W 92-75

+21.5

WIN

L 81-86

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-98

+18.5

CIT

W 96-86

+36.5

AAMU

L 64-68

−20.5

LIN

L 77-83

+4.5

IUIN

W 103-91

+5.5

ECU

W 77-65

−15.5

L 62-74

−14.5

UTM

L 56-73

−18.5

SCST

W 84-44

−28.5

UNF

W 113-90

+39.5

FUR

L 76-84

+4.5

RICH

W 77-72

−10.5

GWEB

W 89-79

+4.5

UNCA

W 86-83

+17.5

WIN

L 77-81

−8.5

HPU

L 82-84

+2.5

UPST

L 81-86

+11.5

PRES

L 83-87

+22.5

LONG

L 79-81

+3.5

RAD

L 75-84

−3.5

HPU

L 55-80

−27.5

UPST

L 94-100

+43.5

PRES

W 84-67

+4.5

RAD

L 80-90

+8.5

GWEB

W 75-66

−20.5

LONG

L 96-107

+48.5

WIN

W 86-84

+5.5

UNCA

W 92-75

+18.5

WIN

L 81-86

+2.5

over 19under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Florida

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

W L W W L L W L W W L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1555%

W L W W L L L L W L W W L L W L L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

O O U O O U O U U U O O O U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAMU	W 102-67	-25.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsGW	L 95-99	-1.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsCOPP	W 100-50	-34.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 16	@KENN	W 108-89	-7.5	W +11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 19	@OKST	L 95-103	+3.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 26	vsVCU	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsWKU	W 97-91	-7.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsCSU	L 68-83	-2.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 4	vsUSU	W 74-61	-2.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 135
Dec 10	vsCOFC	W 81-75	-13.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 156
Dec 17	@ALA	L 93-104	+14.5	W +3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsUMBC	W 94-69	-22.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 4	vsUAB	L 106-109	-8.5	L −11.5	163.5	O 215
Jan 7	@UNT	W 74-70	-4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 10	@TLSA	W 93-78	+1.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsECU	W 82-71	-18.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsWICH	L 85-86	-7.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 22	@UAB	W 82-69	-2.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 151
Jan 25	vsFAU	W 89-75	-5.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Jan 28	@TULN	W 97-83	-8.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 180
Jan 31	@TEM	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 157
Feb 4	vsUTSA	W 109-88	-23.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 197
Feb 8	vsTLSA	W 80-74	-4.5	W +1.5	170.5	U 154
Feb 11	@WICH	W 66-58	-2.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 15	@FAU	W 83-81	-4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 164
Feb 19	vsMEM	W 87-66	-9.5	W +11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 25	@RICE	W 75-56	-11.5	W +7.5	157.5	U 131
Mar 1	vsTULN	W 90-62	-15.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 5	@MEM	W 96-89	-7.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	vsCLT	W 83-60	-17.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsCLT	W 86-64	-15.5	W +6.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 15	vsWICH	W 70-55	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 19	vsLOU	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+9.5

L 95-99

−5.5

COPP

W 100-50

+15.5

KENN

W 108-89

+11.5

OKST

L 95-103

−4.5

VCU

L 66-78

−10.5

WKU

W 97-91

−1.5

CSU

L 68-83

−17.5

USU

W 74-61

+10.5

COFC

W 81-75

−7.5

ALA

L 93-104

+3.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

−11.5

UNT

W 74-70

−0.5

TLSA

W 93-78

+16.5

ECU

W 82-71

−7.5

WICH

L 85-86

−8.5

UAB

W 82-69

+10.5

FAU

W 89-75

+8.5

TULN

W 97-83

+5.5

TEM

L 78-79

−10.5

UTSA

W 109-88

−2.5

TLSA

W 80-74

+1.5

WICH

W 66-58

+5.5

FAU

W 83-81

−2.5

MEM

W 87-66

+11.5

RICE

W 75-56

+7.5

TULN

W 90-62

+12.5

MEM

W 96-89

−0.5

CLT

W 83-60

+5.5

CLT

W 86-64

+6.5

WICH

W 70-55

+8.5

LOU

L 79-83

−0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+15.5

L 95-99

+34.5

COPP

W 100-50

−17.5

KENN

W 108-89

+19.5

OKST

L 95-103

+20.5

VCU

L 66-78

−28.5

WKU

W 97-91

+20.5

CSU

L 68-83

−4.5

USU

W 74-61

−27.5

COFC

W 81-75

−4.5

ALA

L 93-104

+18.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

+51.5

UNT

W 74-70

−3.5

TLSA

W 93-78

+7.5

ECU

W 82-71

−5.5

WICH

L 85-86

+12.5

UAB

W 82-69

−17.5

FAU

W 89-75

−2.5

TULN

W 97-83

+21.5

TEM

L 78-79

+2.5

UTSA

W 109-88

+32.5

TLSA

W 80-74

−16.5

WICH

W 66-58

−36.5

FAU

W 83-81

−1.5

MEM

W 87-66

−10.5

RICE

W 75-56

−26.5

TULN

W 90-62

−3.5

MEM

W 96-89

+21.5

CLT

W 83-60

−13.5

CLT

W 86-64

−3.5

WICH

W 70-55

−26.5

LOU

L 79-83

+1.5

over 15under 18avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Charleston So 0, South Florida 2, even 3

Charleston SoBetterSouth Florida

G J. Taylor4.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 2

USFBig

G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79

G N. Errica TR1.3 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72

F L. Olalere4.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

USFBig

G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80

F D. Brafford1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73

F M. Majok TR2.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41

Charleston SoBetterSouth Florida

CHSO offense268th of 366 · -8.1

USFBig

USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1

CHSO defense358th of 366 · -10.2

USFBig

USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players

USFBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHSO betterUSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Charleston So

Guards

J. Taylor21 minN. Errica4 min · TRJ. McLambNewJ. CrawfordNewA. RuffoloNewR. BrooksNew

Forwards

L. Olalere16 minD. Brafford7 minM. Majok5 min · TRT. Deng1 min · TRM. LeslieNew

South Florida

Guards

S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR

Forwards

R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew

Centers

T. Diawara3 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHSO80.9 #44

USF86.8 #6

Points per possession

CHSO1.08 #188

USF1.17 #42

Pace (possessions)

CHSO75.1 #5

USF74.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHSO54.1 #66

USF50.6 #209

3-point %

CHSO35.6 #78

USF32.5 #255

3-point attempt rate

CHSO49.5 #16

USF43.8 #93

Free throw rate

CHSO30.5 #296

USF40.4 #55

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHSO18.6 #302

USF15.1 #73

Offensive rebound rate

CHSO29.4 #223

USF38.1 #7

Assists per game

CHSO15.7 #57

USF16.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

CHSO81.0 #332

USF76.5 #230

Points allowed per possession

CHSO1.08 #150

USF1.03 #54

Opponent effective FG%

CHSO47.0 #21

USF48.8 #58

Opponent 3-point %

CHSO31.9 #58

USF34.5 #218

Turnovers forced

CHSO12.8 #362

USF19.1 #42

Defensive rebound rate

CHSO69.7 #174

USF68.1 #252

Steals per game

CHSO4.9 #339

USF9.0 #8

Blocks per game

CHSO4.9 #21

USF4.0 #72

CHSO		USF
Scoring
80.9 #44	Points per game	86.8 #6
1.08 #188	Points per possession	1.17 #42
75.1 #5	Pace (possessions)	74.4 #9
Shooting
54.1 #66	Effective FG%	50.6 #209
35.6 #78	3-point %	32.5 #255
49.5 #16	3-point attempt rate	43.8 #93
30.5 #296	Free throw rate	40.4 #55
Possessions
18.6 #302	Turnover rate	15.1 #73
29.4 #223	Offensive rebound rate	38.1 #7
15.7 #57	Assists per game	16.8 #28
Defense
81.0 #332	Points allowed	76.5 #230
1.08 #150	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #54
47.0 #21	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #58
31.9 #58	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #218
12.8 #362	Turnovers forced	19.1 #42
69.7 #174	Defensive rebound rate	68.1 #252
4.9 #339	Steals per game	9.0 #8
4.9 #21	Blocks per game	4.0 #72

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charleston So

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Winthrop81–86
W@ UNC Asheville92–75
Wvs Winthrop86–84
Lvs Longwood96–107
Wvs Gardner-Webb75–66

A week or more of rest.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisville79–83
Wvs Wichita St70–55
Wvs Charlotte86–64
Wvs Charlotte83–60
W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.