1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. USF @ DEP
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

South Florida Bulls at DePaul Blue Demons

Wintrust Arena · at DePaul
#84USFSouth Florida
@
#66DEPDePaul
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USFThis seasonDEP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEP 78–73 · win probability DEP 66%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

USF 2, DEP 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: USF plays 74.4 a game (9th fastest), DEP 67.7 (240th). Faster games mean more points
USFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USF 15.1%, DEP 17.7%. Forced: USF 19.1%, DEP 18.7%
USFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USF 38.1%, DEP 30.1%. Defensive: USF 68.1%, DEP 69.0%
DEPSmall
Home court
DEP at home. This season: DEP 0-0 at home, USF 0-0 away
DEPSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USF 14%, DEP 38%. Transfers in: USF 10, DEP 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: USF 40.4, DEP 35.3. Allowed: USF 39.0, DEP 37.8
Even
DEP offense vs USF defense
Offense 92nd of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
Even
USF offense vs DEP defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 31st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%; DEP hits 32.5% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 43.8% and 39.0% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USF 50.6 and allows 48.8; DEP 49.8 and allows 49.3
Context
Schedule so far
USF has played the 89th-hardest schedule, DEP the 72nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DEP -4.7—
Total—150.4—
Projected score—USF 72.8 · DEP 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDEP -2.7—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreUSF 33.8 · DEP 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Florida 1, DePaul 1, even 3
South FloridaBetterDePaul
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
DEPSmall
G K. Holmes TR19.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
USFSmall
G A. Popoola TR10.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
Even
G L. Blocker11.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 77
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
Even
G K. Cotton TR14.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
Even
C W. Jacques TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1 ast Score 52
South FloridaBetterDePaul
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Even
DEP defense31st of 366 · +3.5
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
Even
DEP offense92nd of 366 · -0.3
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
DEPSmall
Backcourt+7.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
DEPSmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
DEPSmall
Bench+0.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSF betterDEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
DePaul
Guards
K. Holmes32 min · TRA. Popoola29 min · TRL. Blocker29 minK. Cotton28 min · TRN. Meeusen27 min · TRK. McClure19 min
Forwards
M. Gwath19 min · TRT. Pierre-Justin16 minJ. JohnsonNewA. JensenNew
Centers
W. Jacques28 min · TRF. Flores11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USFDEP
Scoring
86.8 #6Points per game70.3 #279
1.17 #42Points per possession1.04 #280
74.4 #9Pace (possessions)67.7 #240
Shooting
50.6 #209Effective FG%49.8 #243
32.5 #2553-point %32.5 #253
43.8 #933-point attempt rate39.0 #191
40.4 #55Free throw rate35.3 #169
Possessions
15.1 #73Turnover rate17.7 #253
38.1 #7Offensive rebound rate30.1 #197
16.8 #28Assists per game15.0 #87
Defense
76.5 #230Points allowed69.6 #57
1.03 #54Points allowed per possession1.03 #55
48.8 #58Opponent effective FG%49.3 #77
34.5 #218Opponent 3-point %35.4 #274
19.1 #42Turnovers forced18.7 #64
68.1 #252Defensive rebound rate69.0 #205
9.0 #8Steals per game6.9 #134
4.0 #72Blocks per game3.4 #152
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.

DePaul

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Georgetown56–63
  • Lvs Butler71–81
  • Lvs Villanova57–76
  • W@ Marquette62–51
  • W@ Creighton72–71

A week or more of rest.