Pennsylvania Quakers at Illinois Fighting Illini: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 8:30 PM ETState Farm Center · at Illinois

#137PENNPenn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Penn and Illinois
PENN	This season	ILL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 93–60 · win probability ILL 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

PENN 2, ILL 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PENN 30.0%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: PENN 68.7%, ILL 73.3%

ILLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3

ILLBig

ILL offense vs PENN defense

Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings

ILLBig

PENN offense vs ILL defense

Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PENN has played the 126th-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PENNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PENN 15.4%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: PENN 17.3%, ILL 11.6%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: PENN plays 69.3 a game (158th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points

ILLSmall

Home court

ILL at home. This season: ILL 0-0 at home, PENN 0-0 away

PENNSmall

Three-pointers

PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 35.4% and 49.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PENN 83%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: PENN 1, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PENN 33.9, ILL 33.2. Allowed: PENN 27.5, ILL 19.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILL -32.2	—
Total	—	152.8	—
Projected score	—	PENN 60.3 · ILL 92.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -19.0	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	PENN 26.2 · ILL 45.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PENN WWWWL	20-9	69%	9-4	—
ILL WWWWL	22-15	59%	10-7	—

Venue/role: PENN away; ILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PENN UUUOO	8-21	28%	17-12
ILL OUUUU	15-22	41%	28-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PENN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Penn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs HOW	W78–68WU
Nov 11	@ NAVY	L78–86LO
Nov 14	@ JOES	W83–74WU

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ TTU	W81–77WU
Nov 13	vs SHSU	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ DUKE	L67–110LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PENN 0–1 ILLILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PENN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	PENN 70 vs ILL 105	ILL -25.5	ILL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn

29 games played

Straight up

17-12

59% wins

Against the spread

20-9

69% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-21

28% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1259%

L L W W W W L L W L L W L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-969%

L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2128%

O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U U U U U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 5	@PRIN	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRWN	W 81-73	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	@DART	W 84-74	+2.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	@HARV	L 63-64	+5.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsYALE	L 60-77	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 137
Jan 30	@COLU	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	@COR	W 91-81	+7.5	W +17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	vsPRIN	W 61-60	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOLU	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsCOR	W 82-76	+2.5	W +8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	@YALE	L 70-74	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 27	vsDART	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsHARV	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	@BRWN	W 82-61	+1.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsHARV	W 62-60	+3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 122
Mar 15	vsYALE	W 88-84	+9.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsILL	L 70-105	+25.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+1.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+2.5

DART

W 84-74

+12.5

HARV

L 63-64

+4.5

YALE

L 60-77

−10.5

COLU

L 67-72

−0.5

COR

W 91-81

+17.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−2.5

COLU

W 76-67

+7.5

COR

W 82-76

+8.5

YALE

L 70-74

+5.5

DART

W 80-71

+2.5

HARV

W 64-61

+1.5

BRWN

W 82-61

+22.5

HARV

W 62-60

+5.5

YALE

W 88-84

+13.5

ILL

L 70-105

−9.5

covered 20didn’t cover 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+8.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+8.5

DART

W 84-74

−5.5

HARV

L 63-64

−23.5

YALE

L 60-77

−20.5

COLU

L 67-72

−14.5

COR

W 91-81

−1.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−23.5

COLU

W 76-67

−5.5

COR

W 82-76

−11.5

YALE

L 70-74

−6.5

DART

W 80-71

−3.5

HARV

W 64-61

−13.5

BRWN

W 82-61

−3.5

HARV

W 62-60

−17.5

YALE

W 88-84

+27.5

ILL

L 70-105

+24.5

over 8under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois

37 games played

Straight up

28-9

76% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-976%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PSU	W 73-65	-14.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsRUTG	W 81-55	-22.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	@IOWA	W 75-69	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@NU	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsMINN	W 77-67	-15.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 21	vsMD	W 89-70	-18.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@PUR	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 29	vsWASH	W 75-66	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 1	@NEB	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 4	vsNU	W 84-44	-16.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 7	@MSU	L 82-85	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 10	vsWIS	L 90-92	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 15	vsIU	W 71-51	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 18	@USC	W 101-65	-8.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	@UCLA	L 94-95	-6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 27	vsMICH	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 154
Mar 3	vsORE	W 80-54	-17.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 8	@MD	W 78-72	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsWIS	L 88-91	-8.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 19	vsPENN	W 105-70	-25.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsVCU	W 76-55	-12.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Mar 26	vsHOU	W 65-55	+2.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 120
Mar 28	vsIOWA	W 71-59	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 130
Apr 4	vsCONN	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

PSU

W 73-65

−6.5

RUTG

W 81-55

+3.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+4.5

W 79-68

+1.5

MINN

W 77-67

−5.5

W 89-70

+0.5

PUR

W 88-82

+11.5

WASH

W 75-66

−3.5

NEB

W 78-69

+10.5

W 84-44

+23.5

MSU

L 82-85

−1.5

WIS

L 90-92

−11.5

W 71-51

+11.5

USC

W 101-65

+27.5

UCLA

L 94-95

−7.5

MICH

L 70-84

−12.5

ORE

W 80-54

+8.5

W 78-72

−8.5

WIS

L 88-91

−11.5

PENN

W 105-70

+9.5

VCU

W 76-55

+8.5

HOU

W 65-55

+12.5

IOWA

W 71-59

+5.5

CONN

L 62-71

−10.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

PSU

W 73-65

−18.5

RUTG

W 81-55

−13.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+1.5

W 79-68

−4.5

MINN

W 77-67

+1.5

W 89-70

+6.5

PUR

W 88-82

+17.5

WASH

W 75-66

−12.5

NEB

W 78-69

−7.5

W 84-44

−21.5

MSU

L 82-85

+24.5

WIS

L 90-92

+28.5

W 71-51

−31.5

USC

W 101-65

+14.5

UCLA

L 94-95

+42.5

MICH

L 70-84

−5.5

ORE

W 80-54

−13.5

W 78-72

+4.5

WIS

L 88-91

+20.5

PENN

W 105-70

+24.5

VCU

W 76-55

−20.5

HOU

W 65-55

−21.5

IOWA

W 71-59

−8.5

CONN

L 62-71

−6.5

over 15under 22avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: Penn 0, Illinois 4, even 1

PennBetterIllinois

G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

ILLBig

G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86

G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61

ILLSmall

G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95

F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81

Even

F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94

F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36

ILLSmall

F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

ILLBig

C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

PennBetterIllinois

PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1

ILLBig

ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4

PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1

ILLBig

ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7

Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players

ILLBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players

ILLBig

Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.5 · 5 players

ILLBig

Bench+2.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPENN betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Penn

Guards

M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min

Forwards

T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew

Centers

M. PereiraNew

Illinois

Guards

S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew

Centers

T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PENN74.4 #181

ILL83.2 #24

Points per possession

PENN1.08 #196

ILL1.25 #1

Pace (possessions)

PENN69.3 #158

ILL66.5 #292

Shooting

Effective FG%

PENN50.4 #223

ILL54.7 #46

3-point %

PENN38.3 #13

ILL34.5 #142

3-point attempt rate

PENN35.4 #264

ILL49.7 #15

Free throw rate

PENN33.9 #212

ILL33.2 #232

Possessions

Turnover rate

PENN15.4 #93

ILL13.1 #9

Offensive rebound rate

PENN30.0 #200

ILL39.2 #3

Assists per game

PENN13.7 #171

ILL14.2 #133

Defense

Points allowed

PENN74.5 #173

ILL68.8 #45

Points allowed per possession

PENN1.07 #137

ILL1.03 #61

Opponent effective FG%

PENN52.1 #218

ILL47.3 #26

Opponent 3-point %

PENN32.2 #73

ILL31.3 #38

Turnovers forced

PENN17.3 #132

ILL11.6 #365

Defensive rebound rate

PENN68.7 #220

ILL73.3 #28

Steals per game

PENN6.5 #184

ILL3.7 #365

Blocks per game

PENN3.1 #199

ILL4.6 #28

PENN		ILL
Scoring
74.4 #181	Points per game	83.2 #24
1.08 #196	Points per possession	1.25 #1
69.3 #158	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #292
Shooting
50.4 #223	Effective FG%	54.7 #46
38.3 #13	3-point %	34.5 #142
35.4 #264	3-point attempt rate	49.7 #15
33.9 #212	Free throw rate	33.2 #232
Possessions
15.4 #93	Turnover rate	13.1 #9
30.0 #200	Offensive rebound rate	39.2 #3
13.7 #171	Assists per game	14.2 #133
Defense
74.5 #173	Points allowed	68.8 #45
1.07 #137	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #61
52.1 #218	Opponent effective FG%	47.3 #26
32.2 #73	Opponent 3-point %	31.3 #38
17.3 #132	Turnovers forced	11.6 #365
68.7 #220	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #28
6.5 #184	Steals per game	3.7 #365
3.1 #199	Blocks per game	4.6 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois70–105
Wvs Yale88–84
Wvs Harvard62–60
W@ Brown82–61
Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn62–71
Wvs Iowa71–59
Wvs Houston65–55
Wvs VCU76–55
Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.

Pennsylvania Quakers at Illinois Fighting Illini

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn

Illinois

Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Penn

Illinois