XFINITY Center · at Maryland
#299BUCKBucknell
@
#50MDMaryland
LineMD -31.5no move
Total147.5no move
Season records: Bucknell and Maryland
BUCKThis seasonMD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MD 86–59 · win probability MD 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MD -31.5
no move since the open
Total
147.5
model 145.1 · Under by 2.5
Model edge
BUCK by 4.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
94% BUCK
97% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MD has more of the edges

BUCK 1, MD 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MDBig
BUCK offense vs MD defense
Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BUCK has played the 227th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MDBig
MD offense vs BUCK defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings
MDBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BUCK 27.0%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: BUCK 68.7%, MD 70.9%
BUCKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BUCK 18.9%, MD 18.6%. Forced: BUCK 17.9%, MD 14.9%
MDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BUCK 29.8, MD 36.4. Allowed: BUCK 35.3, MD 35.8
MDSmall
Home court
MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, BUCK 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 42.8% and 46.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: BUCK plays 67.7 a game (242nd fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BUCK 39%, MD 47%. Transfers in: BUCK 2, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
BUCK +5650 · MD -55000
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MD -31.5 · unchangedmodel MD -27
Opened 147.5 · unchangedmodel 145
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
BUCK +31.5SpreadMD -31.5
Bets
Money
Over 147.5TotalUnder 147.5
Bets
Money
BUCKWinnerMD
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
BUCKMDOverUnderBUCKMD
BetMGMMGM-31.5-110+31.5-110147.5-105147.5-115+3300-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-31.5-110+31.5-110146.5-110146.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-31.5-115+31.5-110147.5-114147.5-112——
BovadaBovada-31.5-110+31.5-110146.5-110146.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-31.5-110+31.5-110147.5-105147.5-115——
FanDuelFD-31.5-110+31.5-110147.5-115147.5-105+8000-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-31.5-106+31.5-106146.5-108146.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMD -31.5MD -26.9BUCK +4.6
Total147.5145.1Under 2.4
Projected score—BUCK 59.1 · MD 86

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMD -15.9—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreBUCK 26 · MD 41.9—

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Bucknell 0, Maryland 4, even 1
BucknellBetterMaryland
G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23
MDBig
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25
MDBig
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2
MDBig
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13
MDBig
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
BucknellBetterMaryland
BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4
MDBig
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2
MDBig
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players
MDBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
MDBig
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
BUCKSmall
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBUCK betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bucknell
Guards
J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew
Forwards
L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew
Centers
D. KennardNew
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BUCKMD
Scoring
67.4 #327Points per game69.7 #291
0.99 #332Points per possession1.04 #270
67.7 #242Pace (possessions)67.0 #281
Shooting
48.5 #304Effective FG%48.1 #311
30.6 #3283-point %31.7 #293
42.8 #1233-point attempt rate46.9 #35
29.8 #314Free throw rate36.4 #142
Possessions
18.9 #319Turnover rate18.6 #300
27.0 #295Offensive rebound rate33.8 #73
12.7 #235Assists per game10.4 #351
Defense
76.3 #226Points allowed76.6 #232
1.13 #289Points allowed per possession1.14 #312
54.7 #323Opponent effective FG%54.4 #312
37.0 #344Opponent 3-point %36.3 #317
17.9 #100Turnovers forced14.9 #294
68.7 #216Defensive rebound rate70.9 #111
7.2 #105Steals per game4.8 #345
1.8 #354Blocks per game2.9 #237

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Navy69–74
  • Wvs Army65–55
  • L@ Lehigh79–89
  • W@ Army75–73
  • Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.