Eastern Illinois Panthers at Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana

LineIU -34.5no move

Total142.5down 1 from 143.5

Season records: E Illinois and Indiana
EIU	This season	IU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 90–56 · win probability IU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

IU -34.5

no move since the open

Total

142.5

model 145.4 · Over by 3

Model edge

EIU by 0.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

96% EIU

94% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

EIU 0, IU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IUBig

EIU offense vs IU defense

Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings

IUBig

IU offense vs EIU defense

Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EIU has played the 314th-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less

IUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0

IUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EIU 28.2%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: EIU 64.8%, IU 70.8%

IUSmall

Home court

IU at home. This season: IU 0-0 at home, EIU 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 29.9% and 50.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: EIU plays 67.0 a game (280th fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EIU 18.6%, IU 15.1%. Forced: EIU 19.3%, IU 15.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EIU 22%, IU 19%. Transfers in: EIU 0, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: EIU 33.5, IU 35.0. Allowed: EIU 35.3, IU 37.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenIU -34.5

no move

NowIU -34.5

No change since the open

Total

Open143.5

▼ 1

Now142.5

Down 1 since the open

Moneyline

EIU +5650 · IU -55000

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened IU -34.5 · unchangedmodel IU -34

model IU -34

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

EIU +34.5Spread

IU -34.5

Bets

96%

Money

94%

EIUWinner

Bets

8%92%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	EIU	IU	Over	Under	EIU	IU
BetMGMMGM	-34.5-110	+34.5-110	143.5-105	143.5-115	+3300	-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-34-110	+34-110	142.5-110	142.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-34.5-113	+34.5-110	143.5-117	143.5-107	—	—
BetUSBetUS	-34-110	+34-110	142.5-110	142.5-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-34.5-110	+34.5-110	142.5-115	142.5-105	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-34.5-112	+34.5-108	142.5-115	142.5-105	—	—
FanDuelFD	-34.5-104	+34.5-118	143.5-118	143.5-104	+8000	-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-34-106	+34-106	142.5-108	142.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	IU -34.5	IU -33.9	EIU +0.6
Total	142.5	145.4	Over 2.9
Projected score	—	EIU 55.8 · IU 89.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IU -20.0	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	EIU 24 · IU 44	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EIU LWLWW	17-13	57%	9-7	17-10
IU LLWLL	14-18	44%	9-9	11-11

Venue/role: EIU away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EIU OUUOO	14-16	47%	10-20
IU UUUOU	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
IU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ IOWA	W92–83WO
Nov 9	@ ND	L58–78WU
Nov 15	vs PFW	No recent meeting

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs BELL	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs SYR	L110–112LO
Nov 12	vs TNTC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EIU 0–1 IUIU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · EIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2024-25	EIU 55 @ IU 90	IU -26.5	IU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Illinois

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsLR	W 78-72	+2.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsMORE	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 21	vsUSI	L 68-70	-4.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 26	@LIN	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@SIUE	L 50-77	+5.5	L −21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsSIUE	W 77-71	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUTM	L 63-66	+7.5	W +4.5	126.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

W 78-72

+8.5

L 70-73

−1.5

USI

L 68-70

−6.5

LIN

W 71-67

+11.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−21.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+9.5

UTM

L 63-66

+4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

W 78-72

+15.5

L 70-73

+5.5

USI

L 68-70

+2.5

LIN

W 71-67

−6.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−2.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+19.5

UTM

L 63-66

+2.5

over 14under 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O U U U O U O O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 25	vsKSU	W 86-69	-10.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 155
Nov 29	vsBCU	W 100-56	-29.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 3	@MINN	L 64-73	-7.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLOU	L 78-87	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 9	vsPSU	W 113-72	-14.5	W +26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	@UK	L 60-72	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsCHST	W 78-58	-38.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsSIE	W 81-60	-21.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 4	vsWASH	W 90-80	-9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@MD	W 84-66	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsNEB	L 77-83	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	@MSU	L 60-81	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsIOWA	L 57-74	-3.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	@MICH	L 72-86	+15.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 23	@RUTG	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsPUR	W 72-67	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 31	@UCLA	W 98-97	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	@USC	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsWIS	W 78-77	-3.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 9	vsORE	W 92-74	-10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 15	@ILL	L 51-71	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 20	@PUR	L 64-93	+11.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsNU	L 68-72	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsMSU	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsMINN	W 77-47	-7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	@OSU	L 78-91	+3.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsNU	L 61-74	-6.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

KSU

W 86-69

+6.5

BCU

W 100-56

+14.5

MINN

L 64-73

−16.5

LOU

L 78-87

−5.5

PSU

W 113-72

+26.5

L 60-72

−8.5

CHST

W 78-58

−18.5

SIE

W 81-60

−0.5

WASH

W 90-80

+0.5

W 84-66

+10.5

NEB

L 77-83

−10.5

MSU

L 60-81

−14.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−20.5

MICH

L 72-86

+1.5

RUTG

W 82-59

+15.5

PUR

W 72-67

+9.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+4.5

USC

L 75-81

−7.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+7.5

ILL

L 51-71

−11.5

PUR

L 64-93

−17.5

L 68-72

−13.5

MSU

L 64-77

−10.5

MINN

W 77-47

+22.5

OSU

L 78-91

−9.5

L 61-74

−19.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

KSU

W 86-69

−9.5

BCU

W 100-56

+7.5

MINN

L 64-73

−7.5

LOU

L 78-87

+2.5

PSU

W 113-72

+32.5

L 60-72

−24.5

CHST

W 78-58

−16.5

SIE

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 90-80

+17.5

W 84-66

+2.5

NEB

L 77-83

+9.5

MSU

L 60-81

−4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−15.5

MICH

L 72-86

−5.5

RUTG

W 82-59

−6.5

PUR

W 72-67

−11.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+50.5

USC

L 75-81

+2.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+22.5

ILL

L 51-71

−31.5

PUR

L 64-93

+6.5

L 68-72

−5.5

MSU

L 64-77

−3.5

MINN

W 77-47

−14.5

OSU

L 78-91

+20.5

L 61-74

−7.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: E Illinois 0, Indiana 2, even 3

E IllinoisBetterIndiana

G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98

G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

IUBig

G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75

F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1

IUBig

G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65

F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64

E IllinoisBetterIndiana

EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1

IUBig

IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0

EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7

IUBig

IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

IUBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

IUBig

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEIU betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Illinois

Guards

J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew

Forwards

A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew

Centers

T. VogelNew

Indiana

Guards

M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min

Forwards

A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew

Centers

S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EIU64.6 #351

IU78.2 #93

Points per possession

EIU0.96 #350

IU1.16 #46

Pace (possessions)

EIU67.0 #280

IU67.4 #260

Shooting

Effective FG%

EIU45.7 #353

IU56.1 #22

3-point %

EIU31.7 #292

IU34.7 #138

3-point attempt rate

EIU29.9 #352

IU50.5 #14

Free throw rate

EIU33.5 #224

IU35.0 #179

Possessions

Turnover rate

EIU18.6 #301

IU15.1 #71

Offensive rebound rate

EIU28.2 #256

IU26.9 #300

Assists per game

EIU11.1 #336

IU16.6 #34

Defense

Points allowed

EIU72.2 #111

IU72.2 #109

Points allowed per possession

EIU1.08 #152

IU1.07 #131

Opponent effective FG%

EIU50.8 #146

IU49.0 #68

Opponent 3-point %

EIU31.7 #50

IU33.1 #128

Turnovers forced

EIU19.3 #37

IU15.1 #284

Defensive rebound rate

EIU64.8 #343

IU70.8 #122

Steals per game

EIU7.5 #78

IU4.7 #348

Blocks per game

EIU2.9 #251

IU2.7 #278

EIU		IU
Scoring
64.6 #351	Points per game	78.2 #93
0.96 #350	Points per possession	1.16 #46
67.0 #280	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #260
Shooting
45.7 #353	Effective FG%	56.1 #22
31.7 #292	3-point %	34.7 #138
29.9 #352	3-point attempt rate	50.5 #14
33.5 #224	Free throw rate	35.0 #179
Possessions
18.6 #301	Turnover rate	15.1 #71
28.2 #256	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #300
11.1 #336	Assists per game	16.6 #34
Defense
72.2 #111	Points allowed	72.2 #109
1.08 #152	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #131
50.8 #146	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #68
31.7 #50	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #128
19.3 #37	Turnovers forced	15.1 #284
64.8 #343	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #122
7.5 #78	Steals per game	4.7 #348
2.9 #251	Blocks per game	2.7 #278

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Martin63–66
Wvs SIUE77–71
L@ SIUE50–77
W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern61–74
L@ Ohio State78–91
Wvs Minnesota77–47
Lvs Michigan St64–77
Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.