Eastern Illinois Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 8:30 PM ETCarver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa

#43IOWAIowa

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Illinois and Iowa
EIU	This season	IOWA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IOWA 86–52 · win probability IOWA 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

EIU 0, IOWA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IOWABig

EIU offense vs IOWA defense

Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EIU has played the 314th-hardest schedule, IOWA the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

IOWABig

IOWA offense vs EIU defense

Offense 69th of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings

IOWABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EIU 28.2%, IOWA 30.2%. Defensive: EIU 64.8%, IOWA 70.8%

IOWABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EIU 18.6%, IOWA 15.1%. Forced: EIU 19.3%, IOWA 20.3%

IOWABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8; IOWA 56.4 and allows 52.6

IOWASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EIU 22%, IOWA 61%. Transfers in: EIU 0, IOWA 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

IOWASmall

Three-pointers

EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%; IOWA hits 35.6% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 29.9% and 43.0% of their shots

IOWASmall

Home court

IOWA at home. This season: IOWA 0-0 at home, EIU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: EIU plays 67.0 a game (280th fastest), IOWA 63.0 (365th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: EIU 33.5, IOWA 35.1. Allowed: EIU 35.3, IOWA 38.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IOWA -34.1	—
Total	—	138.2	—
Projected score	—	EIU 52.1 · IOWA 86.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IOWA -20.1	—
1H total	64.7	—
1H projected score	EIU 22.3 · IOWA 42.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EIU LWLWW	17-13	57%	9-7	—
IOWA LWWWL	21-16	57%	11-7	—

Venue/role: EIU away; IOWA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EIU OUUOO	14-16	47%	10-20
IOWA OUUOU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
IOWA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ ND	L58–78WU
Nov 15	vs PFW	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ VAN	No recent meeting

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs VT	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs CREI	L84–92WO
Nov 20	@ XAV	W81–62WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EIU 1–0 IOWAEIU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · EIU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2022-23	EIU 92 @ IOWA 83	IOWA -31.5	EIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Illinois

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsLR	W 78-72	+2.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsMORE	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 21	vsUSI	L 68-70	-4.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 26	@LIN	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@SIUE	L 50-77	+5.5	L −21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsSIUE	W 77-71	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUTM	L 63-66	+7.5	W +4.5	126.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

W 78-72

+8.5

L 70-73

−1.5

USI

L 68-70

−6.5

LIN

W 71-67

+11.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−21.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+9.5

UTM

L 63-66

+4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

W 78-72

+15.5

L 70-73

+5.5

USI

L 68-70

+2.5

LIN

W 71-67

−6.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−2.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+19.5

UTM

L 63-66

+2.5

over 14under 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

21-16

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L L W L W L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1657%

W L W W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1754%

O U U O O O U U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsRMU	W 101-69	-22.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 7	vsWIU	W 77-58	-30.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 14	vsXAV	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsSEMO	W 99-70	-23.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 20	vsCHST	W 93-54	-31.5	W +7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	vsMISS	W 74-69	-4.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsGCU	W 59-46	-8.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Dec 2	@MSU	L 52-71	+5.5	L −13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsMD	W 83-64	-10.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 11	@ISU	L 62-66	+11.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsWMU	W 91-51	-25.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUCK	W 94-39	-25.5	W +29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsUML	W 90-62	-33.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 3	vsUCLA	W 74-61	-6.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@MINN	L 67-70	-4.5	L −7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 11	vsILL	L 69-75	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@PUR	L 72-79	+10.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@IU	W 74-57	+3.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	vsRUTG	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 130
Jan 28	vsUSC	W 73-72	-9.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 145
Feb 1	@ORE	W 84-66	-9.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 4	@WASH	W 84-74	-2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 8	vsNU	W 76-70	-10.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	@MD	L 70-77	-10.5	L −17.5	138.5	O 147
Feb 14	vsPUR	L 57-78	+2.5	L −18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsNEB	W 57-52	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 22	@WIS	L 71-84	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 25	vsOSU	W 74-57	-6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 28	@PSU	L 69-71	-9.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsMICH	L 68-71	+9.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 8	@NEB	L 75-84	+4.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 11	vsMD	W 75-64	-11.5	L −0.5	133.5	O 139
Mar 12	vsOSU	L 69-72	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 20	vsCLEM	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	130.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsFLA	W 73-72	+10.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 26	vsNEB	W 77-71	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 148
Mar 28	vsILL	L 59-71	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+9.5

WIU

W 77-58

−11.5

XAV

W 81-62

+3.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+5.5

CHST

W 93-54

+7.5

MISS

W 74-69

+0.5

GCU

W 59-46

+4.5

MSU

L 52-71

−13.5

W 83-64

+8.5

ISU

L 62-66

+7.5

WMU

W 91-51

+14.5

BUCK

W 94-39

+29.5

UML

W 90-62

−5.5

UCLA

W 74-61

+6.5

MINN

L 67-70

−7.5

ILL

L 69-75

−4.5

PUR

L 72-79

+3.5

W 74-57

+20.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−11.5

USC

W 73-72

−8.5

ORE

W 84-66

+8.5

WASH

W 84-74

+7.5

W 76-70

−4.5

L 70-77

−17.5

PUR

L 57-78

−18.5

NEB

W 57-52

+3.5

WIS

L 71-84

−10.5

OSU

W 74-57

+10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−11.5

MICH

L 68-71

+6.5

NEB

L 75-84

−4.5

W 75-64

−0.5

OSU

L 69-72

−4.5

CLEM

W 67-61

+4.5

FLA

W 73-72

+11.5

NEB

W 77-71

+7.5

ILL

L 59-71

−5.5

covered 21didn’t cover 16avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+33.5

WIU

W 77-58

−10.5

XAV

W 81-62

−0.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+21.5

CHST

W 93-54

+4.5

MISS

W 74-69

+2.5

GCU

W 59-46

−38.5

MSU

L 52-71

−10.5

W 83-64

+9.5

ISU

L 62-66

−13.5

WMU

W 91-51

+4.5

BUCK

W 94-39

−0.5

UML

W 90-62

+6.5

UCLA

W 74-61

−5.5

MINN

L 67-70

+6.5

ILL

L 69-75

+1.5

PUR

L 72-79

+5.5

W 74-57

−15.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−10.5

USC

W 73-72

+3.5

ORE

W 84-66

+16.5

WASH

W 84-74

+16.5

W 76-70

+6.5

L 70-77

+8.5

PUR

L 57-78

−7.5

NEB

W 57-52

−30.5

WIS

L 71-84

+7.5

OSU

W 74-57

−10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−3.5

MICH

L 68-71

−7.5

NEB

L 75-84

+22.5

W 75-64

+5.5

OSU

L 69-72

+0.5

CLEM

W 67-61

−2.5

FLA

W 73-72

−0.5

NEB

W 77-71

+16.5

ILL

L 59-71

−8.5

over 20under 17avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iowa has the better starters

Position by position: E Illinois 0, Iowa 2, even 3

E IllinoisBetterIowa

G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Combs6.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

IOWABig

G T. Coleman TR10 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 82

F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1

IOWABig

F C. Koch7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 57

F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F C. Manyawu6.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

C A. McKeever TR8.3 pts · 9.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 77

E IllinoisBetterIowa

EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1

IOWABig

IOWA defense20th of 366 · +5.4

EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7

IOWABig

IOWA offense69th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

IOWABig

Backcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

IOWABig

Frontcourt+4.1 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEIU betterIOWA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Illinois

Guards

J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew

Forwards

A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew

Centers

T. VogelNew

Iowa

Guards

K. Combs26 minT. Coleman23 min · TRI. Howard18 minT. Sage16 minJ. Koch2 minP. McCollumNew

Forwards

C. Koch28 minC. Manyawu19 minJ. Matteoni4 minT. ThompsonNew

Centers

A. McKeever23 min · TRT. Jirak8 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EIU64.6 #351

IOWA74.5 #177

Points per possession

EIU0.96 #350

IOWA1.18 #28

Pace (possessions)

EIU67.0 #280

IOWA63.0 #365

Shooting

Effective FG%

EIU45.7 #353

IOWA56.4 #17

3-point %

EIU31.7 #292

IOWA35.6 #85

3-point attempt rate

EIU29.9 #352

IOWA43.0 #117

Free throw rate

EIU33.5 #224

IOWA35.1 #176

Possessions

Turnover rate

EIU18.6 #301

IOWA15.1 #75

Offensive rebound rate

EIU28.2 #256

IOWA30.2 #192

Assists per game

EIU11.1 #336

IOWA15.0 #88

Defense

Points allowed

EIU72.2 #111

IOWA66.3 #16

Points allowed per possession

EIU1.08 #152

IOWA1.05 #91

Opponent effective FG%

EIU50.8 #146

IOWA52.6 #245

Opponent 3-point %

EIU31.7 #50

IOWA33.3 #143

Turnovers forced

EIU19.3 #37

IOWA20.3 #17

Defensive rebound rate

EIU64.8 #343

IOWA70.8 #119

Steals per game

EIU7.5 #78

IOWA6.8 #140

Blocks per game

EIU2.9 #251

IOWA1.9 #349

EIU		IOWA
Scoring
64.6 #351	Points per game	74.5 #177
0.96 #350	Points per possession	1.18 #28
67.0 #280	Pace (possessions)	63.0 #365
Shooting
45.7 #353	Effective FG%	56.4 #17
31.7 #292	3-point %	35.6 #85
29.9 #352	3-point attempt rate	43.0 #117
33.5 #224	Free throw rate	35.1 #176
Possessions
18.6 #301	Turnover rate	15.1 #75
28.2 #256	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #192
11.1 #336	Assists per game	15.0 #88
Defense
72.2 #111	Points allowed	66.3 #16
1.08 #152	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #91
50.8 #146	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #245
31.7 #50	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #143
19.3 #37	Turnovers forced	20.3 #17
64.8 #343	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #119
7.5 #78	Steals per game	6.8 #140
2.9 #251	Blocks per game	1.9 #349

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Martin63–66
Wvs SIUE77–71
L@ SIUE50–77
W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.

Iowa

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois59–71
Wvs Nebraska77–71
Wvs Florida73–72
Wvs Clemson67–61
Lvs Ohio State69–72

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Illinois Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Illinois

Iowa

Iowa has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Illinois

Iowa