1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. WAG @ MIA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Wagner Seahawks at Miami Hurricanes

Watsco Center · at Miami
#354WAGWagner
@
#25MIAMiami AP #14
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAGThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 91–54 · win probability MIA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

WAG 1, MIA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIABig
WAG offense vs MIA defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIABig
MIA offense vs WAG defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, MIA 37.1. Allowed: WAG 40.8, MIA 29.5
MIABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, MIA 18.3%
MIASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, MIA 74.1%
MIASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: WAG 8, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
WAGSmall
Three-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 36.1% and 31.9% of their shots
MIASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 0-0 at home, WAG 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIA -36.6—
Total—145.3—
Projected score—WAG 54.4 · MIA 90.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIA -21.6—
1H total68.0—
1H projected scoreWAG 23.2 · MIA 44.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami has the better starters

Position by position: Wagner 0, Miami 3, even 2
WagnerBetterMiami
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
MIABig
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
MIABig
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
MIABig
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
WagnerBetterMiami
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
MIABig
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
MIABig
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
MIABig
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
MIABig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
MIABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAGMIA
Scoring
69.6 #292Points per game81.5 #39
1.05 #250Points per possession1.18 #38
66.4 #299Pace (possessions)69.2 #170
Shooting
49.6 #262Effective FG%55.3 #32
36.6 #363-point %34.9 #127
36.1 #2493-point attempt rate31.9 #331
32.4 #252Free throw rate37.1 #125
Possessions
18.6 #303Turnover rate16.1 #147
32.8 #96Offensive rebound rate37.2 #14
11.9 #289Assists per game16.2 #42
Defense
72.7 #126Points allowed71.2 #79
1.09 #208Points allowed per possession1.03 #60
50.4 #123Opponent effective FG%51.8 #198
34.3 #202Opponent 3-point %35.8 #296
14.9 #295Turnovers forced18.3 #87
70.5 #139Defensive rebound rate74.1 #19
5.2 #321Steals per game7.9 #48
2.3 #320Blocks per game3.3 #174
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.