1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. MTSU @ KU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

Allen Fieldhouse · at Kansas
#154MTSUMTSU
@
#16KUKansas AP #17
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSUThis seasonKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KU 88–63 · win probability KU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KU has more of the edges

MTSU 1, KU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KUBig
KU offense vs MTSU defense
Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings
KUBig
MTSU offense vs KU defense
Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MTSU has played the 132nd-hardest schedule, KU the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
KUSmall
Three-pointers
MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%; KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 45.3% and 35.2% of their shots
KUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTSU 32.7, KU 32.2. Allowed: MTSU 35.7, KU 27.4
KUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0; KU 51.2 and allows 45.0
MTSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTSU 30.7%, KU 29.3%. Defensive: MTSU 71.5%, KU 70.1%
KUSmall
Home court
KU at home. This season: KU 0-0 at home, MTSU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTSU 30%, KU 9%. Transfers in: MTSU 3, KU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTSU 17.1%, KU 15.6%. Forced: MTSU 14.9%, KU 13.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MTSU plays 68.3 a game (216th fastest), KU 68.8 (193rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—KU -25.6—
Total—150.9—
Projected score—MTSU 62.6 · KU 88.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadKU -15.1—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreMTSU 27.7 · KU 42.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: MTSU 0, Kansas 5, even 0
MTSUBetterKansas
G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40
KUBig
G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85
G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63
KUSmall
G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43
KUBig
F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52
KUBig
F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98
C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
KUBig
C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94
MTSUBetterKansas
MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7
KUBig
KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3
MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7
KUBig
KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
KUBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
KUBig
Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.1 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMTSU betterKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MTSU
Guards
K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew
Forwards
O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew
Centers
L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew
Kansas
Guards
L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew
Forwards
K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew
Centers
C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSUKU
Scoring
73.5 #216Points per game75.1 #161
1.08 #195Points per possession1.09 #152
68.3 #216Pace (possessions)68.8 #193
Shooting
51.6 #167Effective FG%51.2 #186
33.8 #1833-point %34.6 #139
45.3 #613-point attempt rate35.2 #268
32.7 #245Free throw rate32.2 #255
Possessions
17.1 #214Turnover rate15.6 #111
30.7 #171Offensive rebound rate29.3 #227
13.7 #168Assists per game13.9 #150
Defense
74.6 #180Points allowed69.1 #47
1.09 #205Points allowed per possession1.00 #28
51.0 #155Opponent effective FG%45.0 #2
34.0 #180Opponent 3-point %30.6 #24
14.9 #293Turnovers forced13.8 #340
71.5 #83Defensive rebound rate70.1 #152
5.8 #265Steals per game5.4 #310
4.0 #76Blocks per game5.8 #6
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
  • W@ Missouri St75–63
  • W@ FIU73–67
  • Wvs New Mexico St86–85
  • Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St John's65–67
  • Wvs CA Baptist68–60
  • Lvs Houston47–69
  • Wvs TCU78–73
  • Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.