Northeastern Huskies at Virginia Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 5:00 PM ETJohn Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia

#20UVAVirginia AP #9

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Northeastern and Virginia
NE	This season	UVA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 92–61 · win probability UVA 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

NE 0, UVA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UVABig

UVA offense vs NE defense

Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 263rd, on the model’s ratings

UVABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NE 52.4 and allows 56.4; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8

UVABig

Three-pointers

NE hits 33.7% and allows 35.8%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 37.8% and 46.7% of their shots

UVABig

NE offense vs UVA defense

Offense 194th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

UVABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NE 27.3%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: NE 69.8%, UVA 70.8%

UVABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NE 29.4, UVA 32.3. Allowed: NE 41.9, UVA 32.9

Context

Schedule so far

NE has played the 185th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NE plays 69.9 a game (120th fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points

UVASmall

Home court

UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, NE 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NE 16.3%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: NE 16.8%, UVA 15.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NE 43%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: NE 3, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVA -31.2	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	NE 60.5 · UVA 91.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVA -18.4	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	NE 26.4 · UVA 44.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WLLWL	11-20	35%	7-9	—
UVA WWWLL	18-18	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: NE away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	20-11	65%	7-24
UVA OUOOO	16-20	44%	30-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
UVA	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northeastern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs HARV	W77–60WU
Nov 13	vs YALE	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ BTLR	No recent meeting

Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs ARK	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs BUCK	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ MD	W80–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NE 0–1 UVAUVA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NE 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2023-24	NE 54 @ UVA 56	UVA -15.5	NE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northeastern

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L W W L L W L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W W L L W W L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U U O U O O U U O O O O O O O O O O O O U U U U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 20	@PRIN	L 57-70	+2.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 22	vsDUQ	W 93-86	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 179
Nov 28	@WAKE	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 3	@HC	L 59-76	-8.5	L −25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCCSU	W 73-56	-1.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 129
Dec 20	@SYR	L 83-91	+14.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	@URI	L 77-85	+10.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 29	@ELON	L 91-103	+4.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 194
Dec 31	@NCAT	W 85-74	-3.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 159
Jan 3	@CAM	L 82-97	+3.5	L −11.5	154.5	O 179
Jan 8	vsUNCW	L 78-87	+4.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	vsTOW	L 78-87	+2.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsELON	W 85-78	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 19	@MONM	L 68-81	+3.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 22	vsSTBK	L 80-95	-3.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 175
Jan 24	@DREX	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsCOFC	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 173
Feb 5	@HOF	L 63-80	+8.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	@STBK	L 55-69	+3.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 124
Feb 12	vsW&M	L 67-94	+5.5	L −21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 19	vsDREX	L 61-70	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 21	vsHOF	L 68-82	+6.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 26	@W&M	L 77-84	+11.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@HAMP	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 3	vsMONM	L 83-89	+3.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 172
Mar 6	vsNCAT	W 88-72	-2.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 160
Mar 7	vsDREX	L 77-84	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−10.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+14.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−25.5

CCSU

W 73-56

+15.5

SYR

L 83-91

+6.5

URI

L 77-85

+2.5

ELON

L 91-103

−7.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

−11.5

UNCW

L 78-87

−4.5

TOW

L 78-87

−6.5

ELON

W 85-78

+10.5

MONM

L 68-81

−9.5

STBK

L 80-95

−18.5

DREX

L 78-83

−0.5

COFC

L 84-89

−1.5

HOF

L 63-80

−8.5

STBK

L 55-69

−10.5

W&M

L 67-94

−21.5

DREX

L 61-70

−10.5

HOF

L 68-82

−7.5

W&M

L 77-84

+4.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−7.5

MONM

L 83-89

−2.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+13.5

DREX

L 77-84

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−18.5

DUQ

W 93-86

+31.5

WAKE

L 73-86

+4.5

L 59-76

−10.5

CCSU

W 73-56

−9.5

SYR

L 83-91

+33.5

URI

L 77-85

+17.5

ELON

L 91-103

+40.5

NCAT

W 85-74

+7.5

CAM

L 82-97

+24.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+22.5

TOW

L 78-87

+21.5

ELON

W 85-78

+5.5

MONM

L 68-81

+5.5

STBK

L 80-95

+26.5

DREX

L 78-83

+21.5

COFC

L 84-89

+11.5

HOF

L 63-80

−10.5

STBK

L 55-69

−29.5

W&M

L 67-94

−6.5

DREX

L 61-70

−12.5

HOF

L 68-82

+5.5

W&M

L 77-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 65-76

−4.5

MONM

L 83-89

+23.5

NCAT

W 88-72

+8.5

DREX

L 77-84

+22.5

over 20under 11avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia

36 games played

Straight up

30-6

83% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-20

44% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-683%

W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W L L L W L L L W L W L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-2044%

U U U O O U O O O O U U O U U U U U O O U U U U U O O U U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRID	W 87-53	-26.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 7	vsNCCU	W 81-62	-34.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 11	vsHAMP	W 91-53	-24.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsMRSH	W 104-78	-20.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 21	vsNU	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsBTLR	L 73-80	-6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Nov 28	vsQUC	W 94-69	-25.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	@TEX	W 88-69	+3.5	W +22.5	154.5	O 157
Dec 6	vsDAY	W 86-73	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsUMES	W 84-60	-36.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 144
Dec 20	vsMD	W 80-72	-16.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 22	vsAMER	W 95-51	-27.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	@VT	L 85-95	-5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 180
Jan 3	@NCSU	W 76-61	+4.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 7	vsCAL	W 84-60	-14.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	vsSTAN	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 13	@LOU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 149
Jan 17	@SMU	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsUNC	L 80-85	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 27	@ND	W 100-97	-9.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@BC	W 73-66	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 3	vsPITT	W 67-47	-12.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSYR	W 72-59	-13.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 10	@FSU	W 61-58	-8.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsOSU	W 70-66	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 136
Feb 18	@GT	W 94-68	-13.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	vsMIA	W 86-83	-7.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNCSU	W 90-61	-6.5	W +22.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 28	@DUKE	L 51-77	+9.5	L −16.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsWAKE	W 75-70	-14.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 145
Mar 7	vsVT	W 76-72	-11.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 148
Mar 12	vsNCSU	W 81-74	-6.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 155
Mar 13	vsMIA	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 14	vsDUKE	L 70-74	+6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsWRST	W 82-73	-17.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 22	vsTENN	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 87-53

+7.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−15.5

HAMP

W 91-53

+13.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+5.5

W 83-78

+0.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−13.5

QUC

W 94-69

−0.5

TEX

W 88-69

+22.5

DAY

W 86-73

+7.5

UMES

W 84-60

−12.5

W 80-72

−8.5

AMER

W 95-51

+16.5

L 85-95

−15.5

NCSU

W 76-61

+19.5

CAL

W 84-60

+9.5

STAN

W 70-55

+2.5

LOU

W 79-70

+13.5

SMU

W 72-68

+1.5

UNC

L 80-85

−11.5

W 100-97

−6.5

W 73-66

−6.5

PITT

W 67-47

+7.5

SYR

W 72-59

−0.5

FSU

W 61-58

−5.5

OSU

W 70-66

−1.5

W 94-68

+12.5

MIA

W 86-83

−4.5

NCSU

W 90-61

+22.5

DUKE

L 51-77

−16.5

WAKE

W 75-70

−9.5

W 76-72

−7.5

NCSU

W 81-74

+0.5

MIA

W 84-62

+18.5

DUKE

L 70-74

+2.5

WRST

W 82-73

−8.5

TENN

L 72-79

−5.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 87-53

−8.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−8.5

HAMP

W 91-53

−4.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+26.5

W 83-78

+11.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−2.5

QUC

W 94-69

+2.5

TEX

W 88-69

+2.5

DAY

W 86-73

+11.5

UMES

W 84-60

+9.5

W 80-72

−1.5

AMER

W 95-51

−7.5

L 85-95

+26.5

NCSU

W 76-61

−14.5

CAL

W 84-60

−4.5

STAN

W 70-55

−18.5

LOU

W 79-70

−5.5

SMU

W 72-68

−13.5

UNC

L 80-85

+12.5

W 100-97

+51.5

W 73-66

−2.5

PITT

W 67-47

−28.5

SYR

W 72-59

−16.5

FSU

W 61-58

−36.5

OSU

W 70-66

−10.5

W 94-68

+11.5

MIA

W 86-83

+23.5

NCSU

W 90-61

−0.5

DUKE

L 51-77

−15.5

WAKE

W 75-70

−5.5

W 76-72

+2.5

NCSU

W 81-74

+1.5

MIA

W 84-62

−0.5

DUKE

L 70-74

+3.5

WRST

W 82-73

+8.5

TENN

L 72-79

+13.5

over 16under 20avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Northeastern 0, Virginia 3, even 2

NortheasternBetterVirginia

G M. Loughnane10.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 45

UVABig

G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82

G R. King TR5.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

UVASmall

G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66

G M. Newton5.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73

G R. Williams7.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

Even

G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

C P. Pinter3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5

UVABig

F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95

NortheasternBetterVirginia

NE offense194th of 366 · -6.0

UVABig

UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6

NE defense263rd of 366 · -6.8

UVABig

UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9

Backcourt-0.9 · 4 players

UVABig

Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

UVABig

Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player

Bench-1.8 · 3 players

UVABig

Bench+3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNE betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Northeastern

Guards

M. Loughnane31 minR. King19 min · TRM. Newton17 minR. Williams15 minL. Bond14 min · TRD. GrosberNew

Forwards

B. Young5 min · TRJ. IcitovicNewD. JungNewS. BaptisteNew

Centers

P. Pinter14 minL. Koelsch9 min

Virginia

Guards

J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min

Forwards

T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew

Centers

J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NE74.9 #168

UVA80.4 #57

Points per possession

NE1.07 #210

UVA1.19 #21

Pace (possessions)

NE69.9 #120

UVA67.6 #247

Shooting

Effective FG%

NE52.4 #130

UVA54.6 #49

3-point %

NE33.7 #187

UVA36.3 #48

3-point attempt rate

NE37.8 #218

UVA46.7 #36

Free throw rate

NE29.4 #324

UVA32.3 #253

Possessions

Turnover rate

NE16.3 #159

UVA16.0 #141

Offensive rebound rate

NE27.3 #286

UVA37.9 #9

Assists per game

NE15.3 #75

UVA16.3 #41

Defense

Points allowed

NE80.9 #331

UVA68.8 #46

Points allowed per possession

NE1.16 #335

UVA1.02 #39

Opponent effective FG%

NE56.4 #351

UVA45.8 #8

Opponent 3-point %

NE35.8 #297

UVA31.6 #46

Turnovers forced

NE16.8 #163

UVA15.4 #256

Defensive rebound rate

NE69.8 #169

UVA70.8 #120

Steals per game

NE7.0 #131

UVA6.3 #199

Blocks per game

NE3.0 #229

UVA6.4 #1

NE		UVA
Scoring
74.9 #168	Points per game	80.4 #57
1.07 #210	Points per possession	1.19 #21
69.9 #120	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #247
Shooting
52.4 #130	Effective FG%	54.6 #49
33.7 #187	3-point %	36.3 #48
37.8 #218	3-point attempt rate	46.7 #36
29.4 #324	Free throw rate	32.3 #253
Possessions
16.3 #159	Turnover rate	16.0 #141
27.3 #286	Offensive rebound rate	37.9 #9
15.3 #75	Assists per game	16.3 #41
Defense
80.9 #331	Points allowed	68.8 #46
1.16 #335	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #39
56.4 #351	Opponent effective FG%	45.8 #8
35.8 #297	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #46
16.8 #163	Turnovers forced	15.4 #256
69.8 #169	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #120
7.0 #131	Steals per game	6.3 #199
3.0 #229	Blocks per game	6.4 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northeastern

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drexel77–84
Wvs NC A&T88–72
Lvs Monmouth83–89
L@ Hampton65–76
L@ William & Mary77–84

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee72–79
Wvs Wright St82–73
Lvs Duke70–74
Wvs Miami84–62
Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.

Northeastern Huskies at Virginia Cavaliers

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northeastern

Virginia

Virginia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Northeastern

Virginia