1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. MASS vs BC
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Massachusetts Minutemen vs Boston College Eagles

TD Garden · Neutral site
#209MASSUMass
vs
#95BCBoston College
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MASSThis seasonBC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BC 81–70 · win probability BC 84%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

MASS 3, BC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BCBig
BC offense vs MASS defense
Offense 96th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
MASSBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MASS 33.3%, BC 28.3%. Defensive: MASS 73.9%, BC 71.4%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MASS plays 72.7 a game (21st fastest), BC 67.5 (257th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
MASS has played the 181st-hardest schedule, BC the 79th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MASSSmall
Three-pointers
MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%; BC hits 29.4% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 35.4% and 42.4% of their shots
BCSmall
MASS offense vs BC defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 83rd, on the model’s ratings
MASSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MASS 46%, BC 1%. Transfers in: MASS 2, BC 11. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MASS 37.0, BC 32.4. Allowed: MASS 44.6, BC 34.6
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9; BC 47.0 and allows 48.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MASS 17.8%, BC 15.4%. Forced: MASS 16.9%, BC 14.8%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BC -11.3—
Total—150.3—
Projected score—MASS 69.5 · BC 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBC -6.6—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreMASS 31.8 · BC 38.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boston College has the better starters

Position by position: UMass 0, Boston College 5, even 0
UMassBetterBoston College
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
BCBig
G E. Shelton TR15.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
BCSmall
G A. Zeigler TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 3.3 ast Score 60
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
BCBig
G M. Williams TR21.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
BCSmall
F B. Benjamin TR14.2 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
BCBig
F A. Bukumirovic TR13.7 pts · 7.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
UMassBetterBoston College
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
BCSmall
BC defense83rd of 366 · +0.1
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
BCBig
BC offense96th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
BCBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
BCBig
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
MASSBig
Bench-4.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMASS betterBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
Boston College
Guards
E. Shelton37 min · TRA. Zeigler33 min · TRM. Williams32 min · TRJ. Frankel21 min · TRJ. O'Toole3 min · TRJ. Furphy3 min · TR
Forwards
B. Benjamin31 min · TRA. Bukumirovic30 min · TRC. Duggan28 min · TRL. Hunger19 min · TRA. Tounkara18 min · TRJ. BaileyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MASSBC
Scoring
79.9 #68Points per game67.4 #326
1.10 #144Points per possession1.00 #323
72.7 #21Pace (possessions)67.5 #257
Shooting
53.1 #99Effective FG%47.0 #338
35.2 #1003-point %29.4 #348
35.4 #2653-point attempt rate42.4 #130
37.0 #130Free throw rate32.4 #251
Possessions
17.8 #263Turnover rate15.4 #102
33.3 #80Offensive rebound rate28.3 #254
16.7 #30Assists per game11.3 #323
Defense
78.8 #288Points allowed70.7 #70
1.09 #189Points allowed per possession1.04 #81
52.9 #262Opponent effective FG%48.9 #62
33.0 #121Opponent 3-point %31.9 #59
16.9 #162Turnovers forced14.8 #303
73.9 #20Defensive rebound rate71.4 #87
6.6 #164Steals per game4.8 #341
2.2 #334Blocks per game4.1 #62
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.

Boston College

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Notre Dame77–69
  • L@ Virginia Tech63–72
  • L@ Miami54–76
  • Wvs Wake Forest68–67
  • L@ SMU70–94

A week or more of rest.