Sam Houston Bearkats at Alabama Crimson Tide: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 7:30 PM ETColeman Coliseum · at Alabama

#15ALAAlabama AP #20

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Sam Houston and Alabama
SHSU	This season	ALA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ALA 97–69 · win probability ALA 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 166.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ALA has more of the edges

SHSU 2, ALA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ALABig

ALA offense vs SHSU defense

Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 228th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SHSU has played the 138th-hardest schedule, ALA the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

SHSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SHSU 35.9%, ALA 32.4%. Defensive: SHSU 69.9%, ALA 67.2%

ALASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SHSU 52.5 and allows 51.4; ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2

ALASmall

SHSU offense vs ALA defense

Offense 154th of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings

ALASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SHSU 34.4, ALA 36.0. Allowed: SHSU 36.7, ALA 32.0

SHSUSmall

Three-pointers

SHSU hits 37.2% and allows 32.5%; ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 35.8% and 54.3% of their shots

ALASmall

Home court

ALA at home. This season: ALA 0-0 at home, SHSU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: SHSU plays 70.7 a game (88th fastest), ALA 74.7 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SHSU 29%, ALA 46%. Transfers in: SHSU 2, ALA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SHSU 16.8%, ALA 13.1%. Forced: SHSU 16.1%, ALA 12.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ALA -27.5	—
Total	—	166.3	—
Projected score	—	SHSU 69.4 · ALA 96.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALA -16.2	—
1H total	77.6	—
1H projected score	SHSU 30.7 · ALA 46.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLWLL	20-11	65%	10-6	—
ALA WLWWL	16-19	46%	6-9	—

Venue/role: SHSU away; ALA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OUUUO	18-13	58%	19-12
ALA OUOUU	19-16	54%	25-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ALA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Sam Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs PEPP	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ ILL	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ WYO	W78–70WU

Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs ARST	W88–79LU
Nov 9	vs OAK	W86–59WU
Nov 13	vs HALL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sam Houston

31 games played

Straight up

19-12

61% wins

Against the spread

20-11

65% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1261%

L L W W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1165%

W W W W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W W L L W W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O U O O O U O O O U U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@TTU	L 77-98	+31.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 15	@UTAH	L 79-85	+12.5	W +6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsWYO	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsIDST	W 84-81	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsIDHO	W 94-68	+1.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 162
Dec 2	@OKST	L 83-93	+13.5	W +3.5	169.5	O 176
Dec 6	@TXSO	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 17	@ORST	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@NMSU	L 78-87	+5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 165
Jan 2	@WKU	L 91-102	+5.5	L −5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	@MTSU	L 67-68	+4.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 135
Jan 8	vsDEL	W 72-60	-11.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsLIB	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 14	@JXST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	@FIU	W 76-63	+2.5	W +15.5	168.5	U 139
Jan 21	vsKENN	W 93-87	-5.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 180
Jan 24	vsWKU	W 73-58	-5.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@MOST	W 80-71	+1.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsLT	W 83-67	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsUTEP	W 70-66	-10.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 7	@LT	L 78-87	-3.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 14	@KENN	W 83-79	+1.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 18	vsMTSU	W 78-70	-3.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 21	vsJXST	W 82-78	-6.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsFIU	W 100-67	-6.5	W +26.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsMOST	W 86-81	-6.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 167
Mar 5	@DEL	L 80-83	-7.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 163
Mar 7	@LIB	L 72-79	+4.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsNMSU	W 69-61	-4.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsKENN	L 73-79	-2.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 152
Mar 18	@UNM	L 83-107	+11.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 190

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+10.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+6.5

WYO

W 78-70

+6.5

IDST

W 84-81

+1.5

IDHO

W 94-68

+27.5

OKST

L 83-93

+3.5

TXSO

W 82-70

+4.5

ORST

W 85-75

+13.5

NMSU

L 78-87

−3.5

WKU

L 91-102

−5.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+3.5

DEL

W 72-60

+0.5

LIB

L 74-82

−6.5

JXST

W 77-62

+16.5

FIU

W 76-63

+15.5

KENN

W 93-87

+0.5

WKU

W 73-58

+9.5

MOST

W 80-71

+10.5

W 83-67

+8.5

UTEP

W 70-66

−6.5

L 78-87

−12.5

KENN

W 83-79

+5.5

MTSU

W 78-70

+4.5

JXST

W 82-78

−2.5

FIU

W 100-67

+26.5

MOST

W 86-81

−1.5

DEL

L 80-83

−10.5

LIB

L 72-79

−2.5

NMSU

W 69-61

+3.5

KENN

L 73-79

−8.5

UNM

L 83-107

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 11avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+18.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+4.5

WYO

W 78-70

−8.5

IDST

W 84-81

+22.5

IDHO

W 94-68

+7.5

OKST

L 83-93

+6.5

TXSO

W 82-70

−6.5

ORST

W 85-75

+6.5

NMSU

L 78-87

+11.5

WKU

L 91-102

+24.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−21.5

DEL

W 72-60

−12.5

LIB

L 74-82

+1.5

JXST

W 77-62

−11.5

FIU

W 76-63

−29.5

KENN

W 93-87

+12.5

WKU

W 73-58

−25.5

MOST

W 80-71

+2.5

W 83-67

+8.5

UTEP

W 70-66

−9.5

L 78-87

+21.5

KENN

W 83-79

−0.5

MTSU

W 78-70

−3.5

JXST

W 82-78

+12.5

FIU

W 100-67

+5.5

MOST

W 86-81

+14.5

DEL

L 80-83

+15.5

LIB

L 72-79

−1.5

NMSU

W 69-61

−24.5

KENN

L 73-79

−7.5

UNM

L 83-107

+27.5

over 18under 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama

35 games played

Straight up

25-10

71% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-16

54% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1071%

W W L W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

L W L W L W W L W L L L W W L L W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1654%

U O U U O O O O U U O U O U O O O U U U O O O O U O O U U O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 13	vsPUR	L 80-87	-3.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 19	vsILL	W 90-86	+2.5	W +6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 24	vsGONZ	L 85-95	+4.5	L −5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsUNLV	W 115-76	-13.5	W +25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 26	vsMD	W 105-72	-14.5	W +18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 3	vsCLEM	W 90-84	-8.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 174
Dec 7	vsUTSA	W 97-55	-33.5	W +8.5	171.5	U 152
Dec 13	vsARIZ	L 75-96	+2.5	L −18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 17	vsUSF	W 104-93	-14.5	L −3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsKENN	W 92-81	-20.5	L −9.5	182.5	U 173
Dec 29	vsYALE	W 102-78	-15.5	W +8.5	171.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsUK	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	@VAN	L 90-96	+3.5	L −2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsTEX	L 88-92	-11.5	L −15.5	177.5	O 180
Jan 13	@MSST	W 97-82	-4.5	W +10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	@OU	W 83-81	-5.5	L −3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 24	vsTENN	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	167.5	U 152
Jan 27	vsMIZ	W 90-64	-10.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 154
Feb 1	@FLA	L 77-100	+9.5	L −13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 4	vsTA&M	W 100-97	-8.5	L −5.5	180.5	O 197
Feb 7	@AUB	W 96-92	+2.5	W +6.5	175.5	O 188
Feb 11	@MISS	W 93-74	-6.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsSC	W 89-75	-17.5	L −3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 18	vsARK	W 117-115	-3.5	L −1.5	181.5	O 232
Feb 21	@LSU	W 90-83	-7.5	L −0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	vsMSST	W 100-75	-12.5	W +12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	@TENN	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 140
Mar 3	@UGA	L 88-98	-1.5	L −11.5	179.5	O 186
Mar 7	vsAUB	W 96-84	-5.5	W +6.5	175.5	O 180
Mar 13	vsMISS	L 79-80	-12.5	L −13.5	166.5	U 159
Mar 20	vsHOF	W 90-70	-11.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 160
Mar 22	vsTTU	W 90-65	-1.5	W +23.5	164.5	U 155
Mar 27	vsMICH	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	172.5	U 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

PUR

L 80-87

−10.5

ILL

W 90-86

+6.5

GONZ

L 85-95

−5.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+25.5

W 105-72

+18.5

CLEM

W 90-84

−2.5

UTSA

W 97-55

+8.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−18.5

USF

W 104-93

−3.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

W 89-74

+9.5

VAN

L 90-96

−2.5

TEX

L 88-92

−15.5

MSST

W 97-82

+10.5

W 83-81

−3.5

TENN

L 73-79

−10.5

MIZ

W 90-64

+15.5

FLA

L 77-100

−13.5

TA&M

W 100-97

−5.5

AUB

W 96-92

+6.5

MISS

W 93-74

+12.5

W 89-75

−3.5

ARK

W 117-115

−1.5

LSU

W 90-83

−0.5

MSST

W 100-75

+12.5

TENN

W 71-69

+7.5

UGA

L 88-98

−11.5

AUB

W 96-84

+6.5

MISS

L 79-80

−13.5

HOF

W 90-70

+8.5

TTU

W 90-65

+23.5

MICH

L 77-90

−3.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

PUR

L 80-87

−5.5

ILL

W 90-86

−4.5

GONZ

L 85-95

+1.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+9.5

W 105-72

+10.5

CLEM

W 90-84

+8.5

UTSA

W 97-55

−19.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−7.5

USF

W 104-93

+18.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

W 89-74

−10.5

VAN

L 90-96

+9.5

TEX

L 88-92

+2.5

MSST

W 97-82

+7.5

W 83-81

−13.5

TENN

L 73-79

−15.5

MIZ

W 90-64

−13.5

FLA

L 77-100

+0.5

TA&M

W 100-97

+16.5

AUB

W 96-92

+12.5

MISS

W 93-74

+2.5

W 89-75

−6.5

ARK

W 117-115

+50.5

LSU

W 90-83

+0.5

MSST

W 100-75

−1.5

TENN

W 71-69

−22.5

UGA

L 88-98

+6.5

AUB

W 96-84

+4.5

MISS

L 79-80

−7.5

HOF

W 90-70

+1.5

TTU

W 90-65

−9.5

MICH

L 77-90

−5.5

over 19under 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: Sam Houston 0, Alabama 3, even 2

Sam HoustonBetterAlabama

G J. Begg10 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

ALABig

G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G J. Coleman8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 41

ALABig

G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94

F E. St. Bernard TR5.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 78

ALASmall

F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

F M. Dann2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 58

Even

F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59

F R. Greppi TR0 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

Sam HoustonBetterAlabama

SHSU offense154th of 366 · -4.7

ALASmall

ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5

SHSU defense228th of 366 · -6.1

ALABig

ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7

Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players

ALABig

Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 3 players

ALABig

Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSHSU betterALA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Sam Houston

Guards

J. Begg27 minJ. Coleman22 minZ. PipkinNewA. McDowellNewN. NguyenNewK. PartainNew

Forwards

E. St. Bernard18 min · TRM. Dann9 minR. Greppi1 min · TRC. Sadibou NdiayeNewY. OkeNewA. LoustauNew

Alabama

Guards

A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew

Forwards

D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew

Centers

C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SHSU80.0 #67

ALA91.2 #1

Points per possession

SHSU1.13 #78

ALA1.22 #5

Pace (possessions)

SHSU70.7 #88

ALA74.7 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

SHSU52.5 #128

ALA55.2 #34

3-point %

SHSU37.2 #24

ALA35.8 #66

3-point attempt rate

SHSU35.8 #253

ALA54.3 #1

Free throw rate

SHSU34.4 #199

ALA36.0 #150

Possessions

Turnover rate

SHSU16.8 #186

ALA13.1 #10

Offensive rebound rate

SHSU35.9 #25

ALA32.4 #111

Assists per game

SHSU14.9 #95

ALA16.3 #39

Defense

Points allowed

SHSU76.9 #237

ALA82.7 #343

Points allowed per possession

SHSU1.09 #191

ALA1.11 #232

Opponent effective FG%

SHSU51.4 #180

ALA49.2 #73

Opponent 3-point %

SHSU32.5 #89

ALA33.8 #170

Turnovers forced

SHSU16.1 #220

ALA12.8 #361

Defensive rebound rate

SHSU69.9 #168

ALA67.2 #295

Steals per game

SHSU7.0 #128

ALA6.4 #186

Blocks per game

SHSU2.6 #288

ALA5.0 #17

SHSU		ALA
Scoring
80.0 #67	Points per game	91.2 #1
1.13 #78	Points per possession	1.22 #5
70.7 #88	Pace (possessions)	74.7 #7
Shooting
52.5 #128	Effective FG%	55.2 #34
37.2 #24	3-point %	35.8 #66
35.8 #253	3-point attempt rate	54.3 #1
34.4 #199	Free throw rate	36.0 #150
Possessions
16.8 #186	Turnover rate	13.1 #10
35.9 #25	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #111
14.9 #95	Assists per game	16.3 #39
Defense
76.9 #237	Points allowed	82.7 #343
1.09 #191	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #232
51.4 #180	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #73
32.5 #89	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #170
16.1 #220	Turnovers forced	12.8 #361
69.9 #168	Defensive rebound rate	67.2 #295
7.0 #128	Steals per game	6.4 #186
2.6 #288	Blocks per game	5.0 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sam Houston

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico83–107
Lvs Kennesaw St73–79
Wvs New Mexico St69–61
L@ Liberty72–79
L@ Delaware80–83

A week or more of rest.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan77–90
Wvs Texas Tech90–65
Wvs Hofstra90–70
Lvs Ole Miss79–80
Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.

Sam Houston Bearkats at Alabama Crimson Tide

What could decide it: ALA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Sam Houston

Alabama

Alabama has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Sam Houston

Alabama