1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. ARST @ ALA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Alabama Crimson Tide

Coleman Coliseum · at Alabama
#171ARSTArkansas St
@
#15ALAAlabama AP #20
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARSTThis seasonALA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ALA 98–71 · win probability ALA 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 168.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ALA has more of the edges

ARST 1, ALA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ALABig
ALA offense vs ARST defense
Offense 2nd of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ARST has played the 221st-hardest schedule, ALA the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARST 38.2%, ALA 32.4%. Defensive: ARST 73.0%, ALA 67.2%
ALABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARST 19.8%, ALA 13.1%. Forced: ARST 14.9%, ALA 12.8%
ALASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3; ALA 55.2 and allows 49.2
ALASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARST 6%, ALA 46%. Transfers in: ARST 3, ALA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ALASmall
ARST offense vs ALA defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 54th, on the model’s ratings
ALASmall
Three-pointers
ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%; ALA hits 35.8% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 44.9% and 54.3% of their shots
ALASmall
Home court
ALA at home. This season: ALA 0-0 at home, ARST 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARST 39.1, ALA 36.0. Allowed: ARST 37.0, ALA 32.0
Context
Tempo
About 74 possessions: ARST plays 73.4 a game (16th fastest), ALA 74.7 (7th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ALA -27.8—
Total—168.8—
Projected score—ARST 70.5 · ALA 98.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadALA -16.4—
1H total78.8—
1H projected scoreARST 31.2 · ALA 47.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: Arkansas St 0, Alabama 4, even 1
Arkansas StBetterAlabama
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
ALASmall
G A. Holloway16.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
ALABig
G A. Allen11.4 pts · 6.9 reb · 3.1 ast Score 94
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
ALABig
F D. Fielder TR14.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
ALASmall
F J. Davis-Fleming TR3.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F B. Garrison TR4.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
Arkansas StBetterAlabama
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
ALASmall
ALA defense54th of 366 · +1.5
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
ALABig
ALA offense2nd of 366 · +13.7
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
ALABig
Backcourt+8.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
ALABig
Frontcourt+5.2 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestARST betterALA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
Alabama
Guards
A. Holloway28 minA. Allen28 minP. Murphy3 minC. CloerNewQ. SamuelsNewA. DiazNew
Forwards
D. Fielder24 min · TRJ. Davis-Fleming20 min · TRB. Garrison16 min · TRL. Jemison16 minK. Bristow13 minJ. RichardsonNew
Centers
C. Onyejiaka6 minT. St. LouisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARSTALA
Scoring
81.8 #33Points per game91.2 #1
1.11 #117Points per possession1.22 #5
73.4 #16Pace (possessions)74.7 #7
Shooting
51.7 #164Effective FG%55.2 #34
32.9 #2403-point %35.8 #66
44.9 #703-point attempt rate54.3 #1
39.1 #78Free throw rate36.0 #150
Possessions
19.8 #344Turnover rate13.1 #10
38.2 #6Offensive rebound rate32.4 #111
15.3 #77Assists per game16.3 #39
Defense
78.0 #268Points allowed82.7 #343
1.07 #121Points allowed per possession1.11 #232
50.3 #117Opponent effective FG%49.2 #73
32.9 #115Opponent 3-point %33.8 #170
14.9 #298Turnovers forced12.8 #361
73.0 #36Defensive rebound rate67.2 #295
7.2 #110Steals per game6.4 #186
2.8 #268Blocks per game5.0 #17
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.

Alabama

25-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan77–90
  • Wvs Texas Tech90–65
  • Wvs Hofstra90–70
  • Lvs Ole Miss79–80
  • Wvs Auburn96–84

A week or more of rest.