Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Thunder
CLE	This season	OKC
4-2	Record	4-2
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 114–113 · win probability OKC 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 3, OKC 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 43.6% and 35.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: CLE 23.2, OKC 23.4

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

OKC offense vs CLE defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, OKC 71.4%

Even

CLE offense vs OKC defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rest

CLE 4 days since its last game, OKC 4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs PHI	L106–114LU
Nov 7	vs NY	L93–130LO
Nov 9	@ CHA	W118–113LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ MEM	W117–116LO
Nov 7	vs WSH	W132–111LO
Nov 10	@ POR	W124–95WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 4–6 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 3 meetings · CLE 2-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	CLE 113 @ OKC 121	OKC +4.5	OKC W
Jan 19, 2025-26	OKC 136 @ CLE 104	CLE +6.5	OKC W
Jan 16, 2024-25	CLE 114 @ OKC 134	OKC -2.5	OKC W
Jan 8, 2024-25	OKC 122 @ CLE 129	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Nov 8, 2023-24	CLE 120 @ OKC 128	OKC +2.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Cavaliers 1, Thunder 1, even 3

CavaliersBetterThunder

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

Even

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

Even

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

CavaliersBetterThunder

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Even

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLESmall

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

CLE

OKC

Scoring

121.0Points per game106.5

1.14Points per possession1.05

106.2Pace (possessions)101.1

Shooting

55.3Effective FG%49.5

37.03-point %30.9

43.63-point attempt rate35.8

28.9Free throw rate21.8

Possessions

14.2Turnover rate14.5

26.7Offensive rebound rate28.5

28.7Assists per game21.7

Defense

116.0Points allowed107.0

1.09Points allowed per possession1.06

52.5Opponent effective FG%51.0

33.7Opponent 3-point %35.3

14.1Turnovers forced15.8

73.9Defensive rebound rate71.4

7.8Steals per game8.3

6.3Blocks per game6.3

CLE		OKC
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.05 #23
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
37.0 #8	3-point %	30.9 #26
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
28.7 #4	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
7.8 #22	Steals per game	8.3 #20
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

4 days since their last game.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

4 days since their last game.

Cavaliers @ Thunder

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Thunder

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Thunder