American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 UTAH | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 1-5 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 122–112 · win probability DAL 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
UTAH 1, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far
DALBigThree-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 42.1% of their shots
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALBigDAL offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
DALBigRecent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
UTAHSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, DAL 69.4%
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
DALSmallUTAH offense vs DAL defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, DAL 14.5%
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, DAL 21.4. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, DAL 27.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -9.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.7
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 111.9 · DAL 121.8
Win probability
DAL 76%
1st half
Spread
DAL -5.5
Total
116.9
Projected score
UTAH 55.7 · DAL 61.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAHlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22
UTAH 9–16 DALDAL leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · DAL has won the last 2 meetings · UTAH 9-16 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | UTAH 120 @ DAL 138 | DAL -3.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 15, 2025-26 | UTAH 122 @ DAL 144 | DAL -2.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 8, 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ UTAH 116 | UTAH +5.5 | UTAH W |
| Dec 15, 2025-26 | DAL 133 @ UTAH 140 | UTAH +1.5 | UTAH W |
| Nov 30, 2024-25 | DAL 106 @ UTAH 94 | UTAH +5.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jazz
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MEM
MEML 103-123
−18.5
23
vs
NO
NOW 120-119
−0.5
25
vs
LAL
LALL 123-132
−2.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−3.5
28
vs
SA
SAL 111-117
+7.5
31
vs
POR
PORL 90-112
−15.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MEM
MEML 103-123
−14.5
23
vsNO
NOW 120-119
+0.5
25
vsLAL
LALL 123-132
+17.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−22.5
28
vsSA
SAL 111-117
−4.5
31
vsPOR
PORL 90-112
−30.5
over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mavericks has the better starters
Position by position: Jazz 1, Mavericks 2, even 2
JazzBetterMavericks
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 8
=Even
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 11
→DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 17
→DALSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 94
←UTAHSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 36
=Even
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
JazzBetterMavericks
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
=Even
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
→DALBig
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
→DALBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
=Even
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
=Even
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
JazzGuards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UTAH108.7 #24DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
UTAH1.05 #25DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
UTAH104.0 #12DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
UTAH51.0 #24DAL56.9 #23-point %
UTAH32.6 #23DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
UTAH41.7 #21DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
UTAH31.6 #10DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
UTAH17.0 #25DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
UTAH25.7 #22DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
UTAH26.2 #19DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
UTAH118.8 #25DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
UTAH1.14 #25DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
UTAH53.9 #18DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
UTAH37.6 #25DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
UTAH13.3 #28DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
UTAH77.1 #4DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
UTAH6.2 #29DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
UTAH6.5 #5DAL6.8 #2| UTAH | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 108.7 #24 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 1.05 #25 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 104.0 #12 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.0 #24 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 32.6 #23 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 41.7 #21 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 31.6 #10 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #25 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 25.7 #22 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 26.2 #19 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 118.8 #25 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.14 #25 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 53.9 #18 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 37.6 #25 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 13.3 #28 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 77.1 #4 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 6.2 #29 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 6.5 #5 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Jazz
1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
- Lvs Spurs111–117
- Lvs Grizzlies105–110
- Lvs Lakers123–132
- Wvs Pelicans120–119
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.