Alabama State Hornets at Texas A&M Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ETReed Arena · at Texas A&M

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama St and Texas A&M
ALST	This season	TA&M
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TA&M 94–65 · win probability TA&M 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TA&M has more of the edges

ALST 0, TA&M 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TA&MBig

TA&M offense vs ALST defense

Offense 20th of 366 against a defense 330th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ALST has played the 333rd-hardest schedule, TA&M the 57th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TA&MBig

ALST offense vs TA&M defense

Offense 269th of 366 against a defense 62nd, on the model’s ratings

TA&MBig

Three-pointers

ALST hits 31.8% and allows 34.2%; TA&M hits 35.9% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 38.5% and 46.2% of their shots

TA&MBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALST 47.1 and allows 52.2; TA&M 53.8 and allows 50.7

TA&MBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALST 18.3%, TA&M 14.7%. Forced: ALST 18.7%, TA&M 18.4%

TA&MSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALST 34.9, TA&M 37.1. Allowed: ALST 42.3, TA&M 35.4

TA&MSmall

Home court

TA&M at home. This season: TA&M 0-0 at home, ALST 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALST 31.9%, TA&M 32.0%. Defensive: ALST 68.5%, TA&M 67.0%

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: ALST plays 71.3 a game (59th fastest), TA&M 73.5 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALST 32%, TA&M 25%. Transfers in: ALST 3, TA&M 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TA&M -29.5	—
Total	—	158.8	—
Projected score	—	ALST 64.6 · TA&M 94.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TA&M -17.4	—
1H total	74.2	—
1H projected score	ALST 28.4 · TA&M 45.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST LWLLL	13-18	42%	8-11	—
TA&M WWLWL	19-15	56%	9-9	—

Venue/role: ALST away; TA&M home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UOUUO	14-17	45%	9-22
TA&M OOUUO	19-15	56%	22-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALST	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
TA&M	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ SJSU	L57–70WU
Nov 17	@ UCD	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ FRES	No recent meeting

Texas A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs NKU	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs ULM	W87–54WO
Nov 12	vs OKST	L63–87LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U O U U O O U O U O U O O U U U O O U O U U U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 19	@AF	L 64-66	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsIUIN	W 101-80	+2.5	W +23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	vsSIUE	L 68-83	+1.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 26	@UNM	L 87-93	+19.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 7	@UTM	L 64-74	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 11	@MIZ	L 77-85	+26.5	W +18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 17	@CIN	L 51-88	+21.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 22	@MEM	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 29	@MSST	L 56-94	+17.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@MVSU	W 89-69	-13.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	@UAPB	L 79-90	-1.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsJKST	L 64-75	-7.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsALCN	W 81-66	-9.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 19	vsAAMU	L 69-73	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@PV	W 95-80	-1.5	W +13.5	158.5	O 175
Jan 27	@TXSO	L 64-96	+2.5	L −29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBCU	L 54-69	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 123
Feb 2	vsFAMU	W 79-66	-3.5	W +9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	@GRAM	L 47-57	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 104
Feb 9	@SOU	L 68-69	+6.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsUAPB	W 79-61	-3.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsMVSU	W 92-55	-16.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	@BCU	L 71-82	+5.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 21	@FAMU	L 63-76	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 28	@AAMU	W 89-88	+1.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsSOU	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 135
Mar 5	vsGRAM	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 9	vsALCN	L 65-77	-7.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

L 64-66

+0.5

IUIN

W 101-80

+23.5

SIUE

L 68-83

−13.5

UNM

L 87-93

+13.5

UTM

L 64-74

−3.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+18.5

CIN

L 51-88

−15.5

MEM

L 67-88

−0.5

MSST

L 56-94

−20.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+6.5

UAPB

L 79-90

−12.5

JKST

L 64-75

−18.5

ALCN

W 81-66

+5.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−5.5

W 95-80

+13.5

TXSO

L 64-96

−29.5

BCU

L 54-69

−13.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+9.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−5.5

SOU

L 68-69

+5.5

UAPB

W 79-61

+14.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+20.5

BCU

L 71-82

−5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−14.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+2.5

SOU

L 64-71

−8.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−4.5

ALCN

L 65-77

−19.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

L 64-66

−8.5

IUIN

W 101-80

−0.5

SIUE

L 68-83

+8.5

UNM

L 87-93

+31.5

UTM

L 64-74

−6.5

MIZ

L 77-85

+6.5

CIN

L 51-88

−6.5

MEM

L 67-88

+3.5

MSST

L 56-94

−4.5

MVSU

W 89-69

+13.5

UAPB

L 79-90

+9.5

JKST

L 64-75

−14.5

ALCN

W 81-66

−4.5

AAMU

L 69-73

−4.5

W 95-80

+16.5

TXSO

L 64-96

+4.5

BCU

L 54-69

−29.5

FAMU

W 79-66

+5.5

GRAM

L 47-57

−40.5

SOU

L 68-69

−12.5

UAPB

W 79-61

−9.5

MVSU

W 92-55

+4.5

BCU

L 71-82

+5.5

FAMU

L 63-76

−5.5

AAMU

W 89-88

+33.5

SOU

L 64-71

−18.5

GRAM

L 63-65

−16.5

ALCN

L 65-77

+0.5

over 14under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas A&M

34 games played

Straight up

22-12

65% wins

Against the spread

19-15

56% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1265%

W W L L W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1556%

W W L L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W W W W W L L L L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1556%

O O U U O O O U O O O O O U O U O U U O U O U O U U U O U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNWST	W 98-68	-21.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	vsTXSO	W 104-70	-29.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 9	@OKST	L 63-87	-2.5	L −26.5	174.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsUCF	L 74-86	-10.5	L −22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 18	vsMONT	W 86-81	-17.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMAN	W 109-68	-23.5	W +17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsMVSU	W 120-84	-42.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 204
Nov 28	vsFSU	W 95-59	+1.5	W +37.5	174.5	U 154
Dec 2	@PITT	W 81-73	-3.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsSMU	L 80-93	-1.5	L −14.5	164.5	O 173
Dec 14	vsJAX	W 112-75	-26.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 187
Dec 21	vsETAM	W 118-77	-28.5	W +12.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 29	vsPV	W 111-82	-29.5	L −0.5	177.5	O 193
Jan 3	vsLSU	W 75-72	-5.5	L −2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	@AUB	W 90-88	+6.5	W +8.5	168.5	O 178
Jan 10	vsOU	W 83-76	-4.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	@TENN	L 82-87	+11.5	W +6.5	159.5	O 169
Jan 17	@TEX	W 74-70	+4.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 144
Jan 21	vsMSST	W 88-68	-8.5	W +11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsSC	W 92-69	-10.5	W +12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 31	@UGA	W 92-77	+4.5	W +19.5	173.5	U 169
Feb 4	@ALA	L 97-100	+8.5	W +5.5	180.5	O 197
Feb 7	vsFLA	L 67-86	+5.5	L −13.5	167.5	U 153
Feb 11	vsMIZ	L 85-86	-7.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 171
Feb 14	@VAN	L 69-82	+7.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsMISS	W 80-77	-9.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 21	@OU	W 75-71	-1.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 25	@ARK	L 84-99	+7.5	L −7.5	170.5	O 183
Feb 28	vsTEX	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 146
Mar 3	vsUK	W 96-85	-1.5	W +9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	@LSU	W 94-91	-2.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 12	vsOU	L 63-83	-2.5	L −22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 19	vsSMC	W 63-50	+2.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 113
Mar 21	vsHOU	L 57-88	+10.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 98-68

+8.5

TXSO

W 104-70

+4.5

OKST

L 63-87

−26.5

UCF

L 74-86

−22.5

MONT

W 86-81

−12.5

MAN

W 109-68

+17.5

MVSU

W 120-84

−6.5

FSU

W 95-59

+37.5

PITT

W 81-73

+4.5

SMU

L 80-93

−14.5

JAX

W 112-75

+10.5

ETAM

W 118-77

+12.5

W 111-82

−0.5

LSU

W 75-72

−2.5

AUB

W 90-88

+8.5

W 83-76

+2.5

TENN

L 82-87

+6.5

TEX

W 74-70

+8.5

MSST

W 88-68

+11.5

W 92-69

+12.5

UGA

W 92-77

+19.5

ALA

L 97-100

+5.5

FLA

L 67-86

−13.5

MIZ

L 85-86

−8.5

VAN

L 69-82

−5.5

MISS

W 80-77

−6.5

W 75-71

+2.5

ARK

L 84-99

−7.5

TEX

L 70-76

−8.5

W 96-85

+9.5

LSU

W 94-91

+0.5

L 63-83

−22.5

SMC

W 63-50

+15.5

HOU

L 57-88

−20.5

covered 19didn’t cover 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 98-68

+12.5

TXSO

W 104-70

+12.5

OKST

L 63-87

−24.5

UCF

L 74-86

−12.5

MONT

W 86-81

+2.5

MAN

W 109-68

+14.5

MVSU

W 120-84

+49.5

FSU

W 95-59

−20.5

PITT

W 81-73

+1.5

SMU

L 80-93

+8.5

JAX

W 112-75

+39.5

ETAM

W 118-77

+28.5

W 111-82

+15.5

LSU

W 75-72

−21.5

AUB

W 90-88

+9.5

W 83-76

−6.5

TENN

L 82-87

+9.5

TEX

W 74-70

−22.5

MSST

W 88-68

−7.5

W 92-69

+5.5

UGA

W 92-77

−4.5

ALA

L 97-100

+16.5

FLA

L 67-86

−14.5

MIZ

L 85-86

+10.5

VAN

L 69-82

−14.5

MISS

W 80-77

−0.5

W 75-71

−19.5

ARK

L 84-99

+12.5

TEX

L 70-76

−13.5

W 96-85

+18.5

LSU

W 94-91

+23.5

L 63-83

−16.5

SMC

W 63-50

−36.5

HOU

L 57-88

+2.5

over 19under 15avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas A&M has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama St 0, Texas A&M 4, even 1

Alabama StBetterTexas A&M

G M. James TR21 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 77

TA&MSmall

G P. Haggerty TR23.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98

G A. Brown13.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46

TA&MSmall

G J. Pope TR13.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 78

G T. Miller7 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Archie TR14.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 91

F J. Walker4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 19

TA&MSmall

G L. Walls TR7.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 37

F J. Scott TR3.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 33

TA&MBig

F J. Shelley TR13.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 76

Alabama StBetterTexas A&M

ALST offense269th of 366 · -8.2

TA&MBig

TA&M defense62nd of 366 · +1.2

ALST defense330th of 366 · -8.6

TA&MBig

TA&M offense20th of 366 · +7.7

Backcourt-1.0 · 3 players

TA&MBig

Backcourt+8.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

TA&MBig

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

TA&MSmall

Bench+2.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestALST betterTA&M betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama St

Guards

M. James37 min · TRA. Brown26 minT. Miller22 minD. BondsNewP. McMillanNewJ. RogersNew

Forwards

J. Walker16 minJ. Scott12 min · TRI. Barganier1 min · TRP. MensahNewM. DixonNewT. HamptonNew

Texas A&M

Guards

P. Haggerty35 min · TRJ. Pope29 min · TRT. Archie26 min · TRL. Walls24 min · TRJ. Reece24 min · TRJ. Green5 min

Forwards

J. Shelley32 min · TRM. Mgbako19 minZ. Clemence17 minC. Phillips17 min · TRJ. Vinson7 minC. McDermott4 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALST71.5 #260

TA&M86.1 #12

Points per possession

ALST1.01 #318

TA&M1.17 #43

Pace (possessions)

ALST71.3 #59

TA&M73.5 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALST47.1 #335

TA&M53.8 #71

3-point %

ALST31.8 #288

TA&M35.9 #63

3-point attempt rate

ALST38.5 #200

TA&M46.2 #42

Free throw rate

ALST34.9 #185

TA&M37.1 #128

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALST18.3 #289

TA&M14.7 #48

Offensive rebound rate

ALST31.9 #128

TA&M32.0 #122

Assists per game

ALST11.7 #303

TA&M17.8 #11

Defense

Points allowed

ALST77.6 #256

TA&M78.9 #296

Points allowed per possession

ALST1.09 #185

TA&M1.08 #151

Opponent effective FG%

ALST52.2 #222

TA&M50.7 #141

Opponent 3-point %

ALST34.2 #194

TA&M31.8 #53

Turnovers forced

ALST18.7 #63

TA&M18.4 #81

Defensive rebound rate

ALST68.5 #230

TA&M67.0 #300

Steals per game

ALST7.9 #50

TA&M8.1 #34

Blocks per game

ALST3.8 #102

TA&M3.1 #210

ALST		TA&M
Scoring
71.5 #260	Points per game	86.1 #12
1.01 #318	Points per possession	1.17 #43
71.3 #59	Pace (possessions)	73.5 #15
Shooting
47.1 #335	Effective FG%	53.8 #71
31.8 #288	3-point %	35.9 #63
38.5 #200	3-point attempt rate	46.2 #42
34.9 #185	Free throw rate	37.1 #128
Possessions
18.3 #289	Turnover rate	14.7 #48
31.9 #128	Offensive rebound rate	32.0 #122
11.7 #303	Assists per game	17.8 #11
Defense
77.6 #256	Points allowed	78.9 #296
1.09 #185	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #151
52.2 #222	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #141
34.2 #194	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #53
18.7 #63	Turnovers forced	18.4 #81
68.5 #230	Defensive rebound rate	67.0 #300
7.9 #50	Steals per game	8.1 #34
3.8 #102	Blocks per game	3.1 #210

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama St

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alcorn St65–77
Lvs Grambling63–65
Lvs Southern64–71
W@ Alabama A&M89–88
L@ Florida A&M63–76

A week or more of rest.

Texas A&M

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Houston57–88
Wvs Saint Mary's63–50
Lvs Oklahoma63–83
W@ LSU94–91
Wvs Kentucky96–85

A week or more of rest.

Alabama State Hornets at Texas A&M Aggies

What could decide it: TA&M has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

Texas A&M

Texas A&M has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama St

Texas A&M