1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 3
  3. CLE @ MIZ
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 3

Cleveland State Vikings at Missouri Tigers

Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
#315CLECleveland St
@
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CLEThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 91–64 · win probability MIZ 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

CLE 1, MIZ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIZBig
MIZ offense vs CLE defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 356th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
CLE offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 248th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLE 27.0%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: CLE 63.4%, MIZ 68.3%
Context
Schedule so far
CLE has played the 222nd-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIZSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLE 54.2 and allows 57.2; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: CLE plays 71.4 a game (56th fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
CLESmall
Three-pointers
CLE hits 37.5% and allows 36.1%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 50.8% and 36.4% of their shots
MIZSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLE 0%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: CLE 7, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MIZSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CLE 17.9%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: CLE 15.1%, MIZ 16.6%
MIZSmall
Home court
MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, CLE 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CLE 37.9, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: CLE 35.5, MIZ 35.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -26.6—
Total—155.4—
Projected score—CLE 64.4 · MIZ 91

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -15.7—
1H total72.6—
1H projected scoreCLE 28.4 · MIZ 44.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: Cleveland St 0, Missouri 4, even 1
Cleveland StBetterMissouri
G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55
Even
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
MIZBig
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18
MIZSmall
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14
MIZBig
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50
MIZSmall
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
Cleveland StBetterMissouri
CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5
MIZBig
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1
MIZBig
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players
MIZBig
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench+0.0 · 2 players
MIZSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCLE betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cleveland St
Guards
O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew
Forwards
D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew
Centers
D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CLEMIZ
Scoring
78.6 #89Points per game79.2 #78
1.10 #133Points per possession1.15 #65
71.4 #56Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
54.2 #62Effective FG%55.0 #36
37.5 #213-point %35.0 #112
50.8 #113-point attempt rate36.4 #240
37.9 #105Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
17.9 #264Turnover rate17.7 #255
27.0 #294Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
14.8 #100Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
88.6 #363Points allowed75.5 #204
1.24 #363Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
57.2 #360Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
36.1 #309Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
15.1 #279Turnovers forced16.6 #182
63.4 #356Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
5.5 #289Steals per game6.6 #162
2.6 #297Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wright St61–90
  • Wvs IU Indy101–93
  • L@ Robert Morris64–83
  • Lvs N Kentucky70–81
  • Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.