LSU New Orleans Privateers at LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ETPete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU

#51LSULSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: LSU N Orleans and LSU
NOLA	This season	LSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LSU 89–67 · win probability LSU 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

NOLA 1, LSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LSUBig

LSU offense vs NOLA defense

Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 316th, on the model’s ratings

LSUBig

NOLA offense vs LSU defense

Offense 230th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NOLA has played the 173rd-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NOLA 20.4%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: NOLA 14.9%, LSU 14.0%

NOLASmall

Three-pointers

NOLA hits 31.8% and allows 32.4%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 33.7% and 34.5% of their shots

LSUSmall

Home court

LSU at home. This season: LSU 0-0 at home, NOLA 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NOLA 22%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: NOLA 4, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NOLA 49.6 and allows 49.0; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NOLA 35.6%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: NOLA 65.5%, LSU 68.3%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: NOLA plays 70.2 a game (110th fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NOLA 46.4, LSU 40.9. Allowed: NOLA 39.5, LSU 37.8

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LSU -21.7	—
Total	—	156.5	—
Projected score	—	NOLA 67.4 · LSU 89.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -12.8	—
1H total	73.1	—
1H projected score	NOLA 30.2 · LSU 43	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NOLA WWLWL	19-14	58%	11-9	—
LSU WLLLW	18-14	56%	7-10	—

Venue/role: NOLA away; LSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NOLA UUOUU	19-14	58%	15-18
LSU OUOOO	16-16	50%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOLA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
LSU	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

LSU N Orleans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ TTU	L50–82LU
Nov 21	@ TXSO	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs GRAM	No recent meeting

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs TXSO	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs LT	W66–57LU
Nov 14	@ GONZ	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NOLA 0–3 LSULSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · LSU has won the last 3 meetings · NOLA 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2025-26	NOLA 58 @ LSU 93	LSU -19.5	LSU W
Dec 22, 2024-25	NOLA 70 @ LSU 86	LSU -26.5	NOLA W
Nov 17, 2022-23	NOLA 62 @ LSU 91	LSU -23.5	LSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU N Orleans

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W L W L L L L L L W L W L L W L W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W L L W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U U O O U U O O O O O O U O O O O O U U U O O O U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 18	@PEPP	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	@FRES	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 24	@MSST	L 78-81	+23.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 26	@TTU	L 50-82	+29.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 132
Dec 3	@MEM	L 70-86	+14.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsHCU	L 76-85	-4.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 8	vsUIW	W 84-83	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 167
Dec 13	@HOU	L 57-99	+32.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 29	@RGV	W 85-69	+6.5	W +22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	@AMCC	L 69-83	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 3	@NWST	L 68-74	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	vsETAM	W 83-73	-6.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsNICH	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 12	@SELA	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsSFA	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 19	vsLAM	W 89-76	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 165
Jan 24	@MCN	L 63-82	+18.5	L −0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@NICH	W 80-62	+4.5	W +22.5	157.5	U 142
Jan 31	vsNWST	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	@ETAM	W 94-85	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsRGV	L 76-95	+1.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	vsAMCC	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 14	@HCU	L 60-61	+1.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	@UIW	W 78-64	+2.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 142
Feb 21	@LAM	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 23	@SFA	W 77-73	+11.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsMCN	L 63-66	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	vsSELA	L 78-82	-6.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 8	vsHCU	W 73-60	-5.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 9	vsAMCC	L 61-74	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

PEPP

L 79-90

−5.5

FRES

L 76-85

−2.5

MSST

L 78-81

+20.5

TTU

L 50-82

−2.5

MEM

L 70-86

−1.5

HCU

L 76-85

−13.5

UIW

W 84-83

+2.5

HOU

L 57-99

−9.5

RGV

W 85-69

+22.5

AMCC

L 69-83

−9.5

NWST

L 68-74

−7.5

ETAM

W 83-73

+3.5

NICH

L 77-90

−9.5

SELA

W 79-76

+5.5

SFA

L 79-84

+1.5

LAM

W 89-76

+14.5

MCN

L 63-82

−0.5

NICH

W 80-62

+22.5

NWST

W 75-64

+6.5

ETAM

W 94-85

+7.5

RGV

L 76-95

−17.5

AMCC

W 84-78

+7.5

HCU

L 60-61

+0.5

UIW

W 78-64

+16.5

LAM

W 77-71

+10.5

SFA

W 77-73

+15.5

MCN

L 63-66

+7.5

SELA

L 78-82

−10.5

HCU

W 73-60

+7.5

AMCC

L 61-74

−10.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

PEPP

L 79-90

+11.5

FRES

L 76-85

+6.5

MSST

L 78-81

−1.5

TTU

L 50-82

−25.5

MEM

L 70-86

+6.5

HCU

L 76-85

+20.5

UIW

W 84-83

+18.5

HOU

L 57-99

+17.5

RGV

W 85-69

+1.5

AMCC

L 69-83

+9.5

NWST

L 68-74

−7.5

ETAM

W 83-73

+5.5

NICH

L 77-90

+12.5

SELA

W 79-76

+12.5

SFA

L 79-84

+15.5

LAM

W 89-76

+20.5

MCN

L 63-82

−11.5

NICH

W 80-62

−15.5

NWST

W 75-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 94-85

+27.5

RGV

L 76-95

+19.5

AMCC

W 84-78

+15.5

HCU

L 60-61

−27.5

UIW

W 78-64

−12.5

LAM

W 77-71

+1.5

SFA

W 77-73

−3.5

MCN

L 63-66

−21.5

SELA

L 78-82

+16.5

HCU

W 73-60

−10.5

AMCC

L 61-74

−12.5

over 19under 14avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U O O O U O U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsDEP	W 96-63	-5.5	W +27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 3	@BC	W 78-69	-7.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 7	vsTTU	L 58-82	+5.5	L −18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsSMU	W 89-77	-1.5	W +10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsSELA	W 78-65	-24.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 22	vsPV	W 104-90	-29.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	vsUSM	W 90-62	-21.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 3	@TA&M	L 72-75	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	vsSC	L 68-78	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	@VAN	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	vsUK	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsMIZ	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	@FLA	L 61-79	+15.5	L −2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	@ARK	L 81-85	+10.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 28	vsMSST	L 66-80	-7.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SC	W 92-87	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsUGA	L 71-83	+1.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 10	vsARK	L 62-91	+4.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 153
Feb 14	@TENN	L 63-73	+14.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 17	@TEX	L 85-88	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	vsALA	L 83-90	+7.5	W +0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	@MISS	W 106-99	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	vsOU	L 67-83	-1.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	@AUB	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	vsTA&M	L 91-94	+2.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 11	vsUK	L 82-87	+8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

DEP

W 96-63

+27.5

W 78-69

+1.5

TTU

L 58-82

−18.5

SMU

W 89-77

+10.5

SELA

W 78-65

−11.5

W 104-90

−15.5

USM

W 90-62

+6.5

TA&M

L 72-75

+2.5

L 68-78

−17.5

VAN

L 73-84

+2.5

L 74-75

+2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

+6.5

FLA

L 61-79

−2.5

ARK

L 81-85

+6.5

MSST

L 66-80

−21.5

W 92-87

+2.5

UGA

L 71-83

−10.5

ARK

L 62-91

−24.5

TENN

L 63-73

+4.5

TEX

L 85-88

+7.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+9.5

L 67-83

−17.5

AUB

L 74-88

−3.5

TA&M

L 91-94

−0.5

L 82-87

+3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

DEP

W 96-63

+6.5

W 78-69

−2.5

TTU

L 58-82

−14.5

SMU

W 89-77

+7.5

SELA

W 78-65

−1.5

W 104-90

+32.5

USM

W 90-62

−2.5

TA&M

L 72-75

−21.5

L 68-78

+0.5

VAN

L 73-84

−2.5

L 74-75

−2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

−0.5

FLA

L 61-79

−18.5

ARK

L 81-85

+2.5

MSST

L 66-80

−8.5

W 92-87

+31.5

UGA

L 71-83

−7.5

ARK

L 62-91

−6.5

TENN

L 63-73

−7.5

TEX

L 85-88

+22.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+57.5

L 67-83

−5.5

AUB

L 74-88

+6.5

TA&M

L 91-94

+23.5

L 82-87

+17.5

over 16under 16avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: LSU N Orleans 1, LSU 3, even 1

LSU N OrleansBetterLSU

G K. Singleton TR13.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

LSUBig

G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95

G N. Jones TR14.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 65

NOLABig

G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17

G J. Chretien1.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87

F E. Boudouma5.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 13

LSUBig

G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

F K. Osby4.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 10

LSUBig

F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94

LSU N OrleansBetterLSU

NOLA offense230th of 366 · -7.1

LSUBig

LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5

NOLA defense316th of 366 · -8.2

LSUBig

LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-1.8 · 3 players

LSUBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.6 · 2 players

LSUBig

Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player

Bench-1.4 · 2 players

LSUSmall

Bench+0.4 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestNOLA betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

LSU N Orleans

Guards

K. Singleton35 min · TRN. Jones32 min · TRJ. Chretien9 minC. OkeyNewY. OrtizNewS. ParsonNew

Forwards

E. Boudouma18 minK. Osby17 minK. Ratliff9 min · TRW. CampbellNewS. OminuNewE. NwakammaNew

Centers

J. Pace5 min · TR

LSU

Guards

D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew

Forwards

M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew

Centers

B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NOLA74.5 #178

LSU81.4 #41

Points per possession

NOLA1.06 #226

LSU1.15 #60

Pace (possessions)

NOLA70.2 #110

LSU70.5 #95

Shooting

Effective FG%

NOLA49.6 #258

LSU52.8 #111

3-point %

NOLA31.8 #287

LSU33.1 #225

3-point attempt rate

NOLA33.7 #302

LSU34.5 #286

Free throw rate

NOLA46.4 #1

LSU40.9 #49

Possessions

Turnover rate

NOLA20.4 #353

LSU15.5 #106

Offensive rebound rate

NOLA35.6 #34

LSU33.1 #87

Assists per game

NOLA12.9 #214

LSU14.7 #106

Defense

Points allowed

NOLA77.7 #260

LSU78.5 #279

Points allowed per possession

NOLA1.11 #238

LSU1.12 #270

Opponent effective FG%

NOLA49.0 #71

LSU50.9 #150

Opponent 3-point %

NOLA32.4 #86

LSU35.4 #271

Turnovers forced

NOLA14.9 #301

LSU14.0 #335

Defensive rebound rate

NOLA65.5 #325

LSU68.3 #239

Steals per game

NOLA5.8 #258

LSU6.0 #240

Blocks per game

NOLA3.8 #105

LSU3.9 #87

NOLA		LSU
Scoring
74.5 #178	Points per game	81.4 #41
1.06 #226	Points per possession	1.15 #60
70.2 #110	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #95
Shooting
49.6 #258	Effective FG%	52.8 #111
31.8 #287	3-point %	33.1 #225
33.7 #302	3-point attempt rate	34.5 #286
46.4 #1	Free throw rate	40.9 #49
Possessions
20.4 #353	Turnover rate	15.5 #106
35.6 #34	Offensive rebound rate	33.1 #87
12.9 #214	Assists per game	14.7 #106
Defense
77.7 #260	Points allowed	78.5 #279
1.11 #238	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #270
49.0 #71	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #150
32.4 #86	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #271
14.9 #301	Turnovers forced	14.0 #335
65.5 #325	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #239
5.8 #258	Steals per game	6.0 #240
3.8 #105	Blocks per game	3.9 #87

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LSU N Orleans

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M-CC61–74
Wvs Hou Christian73–60
Lvs SE Louisiana78–82
Lvs McNeese63–66
W@ SF Austin77–73

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky82–87
Lvs Texas A&M91–94
L@ Auburn74–88
Lvs Oklahoma67–83
W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

LSU New Orleans Privateers at LSU Tigers

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

LSU

LSU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

LSU N Orleans

LSU