Texas Southern Tigers at LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ETPete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU

#51LSULSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Texas Southern and LSU
TXSO	This season	LSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LSU 91–63 · win probability LSU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

TXSO 1, LSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LSUBig

LSU offense vs TXSO defense

Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 323rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TXSO has played the 329th-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LSUBig

TXSO offense vs LSU defense

Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings

LSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9

LSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXSO 38.2, LSU 40.9. Allowed: TXSO 44.0, LSU 37.8

TXSOSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXSO 37%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: TXSO 4, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXSO 28.8%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: TXSO 68.8%, LSU 68.3%

LSUSmall

Home court

LSU at home. This season: LSU 0-0 at home, TXSO 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 32.5% and 34.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TXSO plays 71.8 a game (40th fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXSO 18.5%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: TXSO 16.5%, LSU 14.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LSU -27.9	—
Total	—	154.0	—
Projected score	—	TXSO 63 · LSU 91

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -16.5	—
1H total	72.0	—
1H projected score	TXSO 27.7 · LSU 44.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLWLL	9-19	32%	3-12	—
LSU WLLLW	18-14	56%	7-10	—

Venue/role: TXSO away; LSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO UOUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
LSU OUOOO	16-16	50%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LSU	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ MUR	No recent meeting
Nov 16	@ UCSD	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ SDSU	No recent meeting

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs LT	W66–57LU
Nov 14	@ GONZ	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs ULM	W95–60WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W W L W W L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 20	@VAN	L 74-109	+36.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 183
Dec 6	vsSHSU	L 70-82	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 14	@MINN	L 53-89	+21.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 17	@NCSU	L 72-108	+34.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 22	vsACU	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 3	@SOU	L 73-84	+6.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	@GRAM	L 67-84	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	vsUAPB	L 66-74	-1.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 12	vsMVSU	W 84-51	-12.5	W +20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	@ALCN	W 72-71	-1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	@JKST	L 89-94	+2.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	vsAAMU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsALST	W 96-64	-2.5	W +29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	@PV	L 78-85	-1.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 163
Feb 7	@FAMU	W 62-57	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	@BCU	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	vsGRAM	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 161
Feb 16	vsSOU	W 74-73	+4.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 19	@UAPB	W 83-64	+1.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 147
Feb 21	@MVSU	L 71-72	-11.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 26	vsALCN	W 92-87	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	vsJKST	W 82-57	-6.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsPV	L 59-70	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 129
Mar 12	vsAAMU	L 74-85	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

VAN

L 74-109

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−4.5

MINN

L 53-89

−14.5

NCSU

L 72-108

−1.5

ACU

L 68-75

−2.5

SOU

L 73-84

−4.5

GRAM

L 67-84

−11.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−9.5

MVSU

W 84-51

+20.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−0.5

JKST

L 89-94

−2.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+16.5

ALST

W 96-64

+29.5

L 78-85

−8.5

FAMU

W 62-57

+6.5

BCU

L 69-79

−2.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+1.5

SOU

W 74-73

+5.5

UAPB

W 83-64

+20.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−12.5

ALCN

W 92-87

−0.5

JKST

W 82-57

+18.5

L 59-70

−12.5

AAMU

L 74-85

−9.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

VAN

L 74-109

+18.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−6.5

MINN

L 53-89

−2.5

NCSU

L 72-108

+27.5

ACU

L 68-75

+4.5

SOU

L 73-84

+3.5

GRAM

L 67-84

+4.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−22.5

MVSU

W 84-51

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−3.5

JKST

L 89-94

+29.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+17.5

ALST

W 96-64

+4.5

L 78-85

+5.5

FAMU

W 62-57

−27.5

BCU

L 69-79

−4.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+21.5

SOU

W 74-73

−4.5

UAPB

W 83-64

−5.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−0.5

ALCN

W 92-87

+33.5

JKST

W 82-57

−13.5

L 59-70

−25.5

AAMU

L 74-85

+16.5

over 14under 14avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U O O O U O U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsDEP	W 96-63	-5.5	W +27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 3	@BC	W 78-69	-7.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 7	vsTTU	L 58-82	+5.5	L −18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsSMU	W 89-77	-1.5	W +10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsSELA	W 78-65	-24.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 22	vsPV	W 104-90	-29.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	vsUSM	W 90-62	-21.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 3	@TA&M	L 72-75	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	vsSC	L 68-78	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	@VAN	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	vsUK	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsMIZ	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	@FLA	L 61-79	+15.5	L −2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	@ARK	L 81-85	+10.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 28	vsMSST	L 66-80	-7.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SC	W 92-87	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsUGA	L 71-83	+1.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 10	vsARK	L 62-91	+4.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 153
Feb 14	@TENN	L 63-73	+14.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 17	@TEX	L 85-88	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	vsALA	L 83-90	+7.5	W +0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	@MISS	W 106-99	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	vsOU	L 67-83	-1.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	@AUB	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	vsTA&M	L 91-94	+2.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 11	vsUK	L 82-87	+8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

DEP

W 96-63

+27.5

W 78-69

+1.5

TTU

L 58-82

−18.5

SMU

W 89-77

+10.5

SELA

W 78-65

−11.5

W 104-90

−15.5

USM

W 90-62

+6.5

TA&M

L 72-75

+2.5

L 68-78

−17.5

VAN

L 73-84

+2.5

L 74-75

+2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

+6.5

FLA

L 61-79

−2.5

ARK

L 81-85

+6.5

MSST

L 66-80

−21.5

W 92-87

+2.5

UGA

L 71-83

−10.5

ARK

L 62-91

−24.5

TENN

L 63-73

+4.5

TEX

L 85-88

+7.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+9.5

L 67-83

−17.5

AUB

L 74-88

−3.5

TA&M

L 91-94

−0.5

L 82-87

+3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

DEP

W 96-63

+6.5

W 78-69

−2.5

TTU

L 58-82

−14.5

SMU

W 89-77

+7.5

SELA

W 78-65

−1.5

W 104-90

+32.5

USM

W 90-62

−2.5

TA&M

L 72-75

−21.5

L 68-78

+0.5

VAN

L 73-84

−2.5

L 74-75

−2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

−0.5

FLA

L 61-79

−18.5

ARK

L 81-85

+2.5

MSST

L 66-80

−8.5

W 92-87

+31.5

UGA

L 71-83

−7.5

ARK

L 62-91

−6.5

TENN

L 63-73

−7.5

TEX

L 85-88

+22.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+57.5

L 67-83

−5.5

AUB

L 74-88

+6.5

TA&M

L 91-94

+23.5

L 82-87

+17.5

over 16under 16avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: Texas Southern 0, LSU 3, even 2

Texas SouthernBetterLSU

G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23

LSUBig

G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95

G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17

G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87

F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7

LSUBig

G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

LSUBig

F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94

Texas SouthernBetterLSU

TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7

LSUBig

LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5

TXSO defense323rd of 366 · -8.4

LSUBig

LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

LSUBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players

LSUBig

Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player

Bench-4.2 · 5 players

LSUBig

Bench+0.4 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestTXSO betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas Southern

Guards

K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR

Forwards

A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew

Centers

J. Gorecki17 min

LSU

Guards

D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew

Forwards

M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew

Centers

B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXSO73.9 #204

LSU81.4 #41

Points per possession

TXSO1.03 #293

LSU1.15 #60

Pace (possessions)

TXSO71.8 #40

LSU70.5 #95

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXSO49.7 #251

LSU52.8 #111

3-point %

TXSO33.1 #224

LSU33.1 #225

3-point attempt rate

TXSO32.5 #324

LSU34.5 #286

Free throw rate

TXSO38.2 #96

LSU40.9 #49

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXSO18.5 #297

LSU15.5 #106

Offensive rebound rate

TXSO28.8 #237

LSU33.1 #87

Assists per game

TXSO11.1 #332

LSU14.7 #106

Defense

Points allowed

TXSO80.0 #318

LSU78.5 #279

Points allowed per possession

TXSO1.12 #260

LSU1.12 #270

Opponent effective FG%

TXSO52.5 #240

LSU50.9 #150

Opponent 3-point %

TXSO34.1 #190

LSU35.4 #271

Turnovers forced

TXSO16.5 #188

LSU14.0 #335

Defensive rebound rate

TXSO68.8 #211

LSU68.3 #239

Steals per game

TXSO6.6 #167

LSU6.0 #240

Blocks per game

TXSO3.3 #173

LSU3.9 #87

TXSO		LSU
Scoring
73.9 #204	Points per game	81.4 #41
1.03 #293	Points per possession	1.15 #60
71.8 #40	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #95
Shooting
49.7 #251	Effective FG%	52.8 #111
33.1 #224	3-point %	33.1 #225
32.5 #324	3-point attempt rate	34.5 #286
38.2 #96	Free throw rate	40.9 #49
Possessions
18.5 #297	Turnover rate	15.5 #106
28.8 #237	Offensive rebound rate	33.1 #87
11.1 #332	Assists per game	14.7 #106
Defense
80.0 #318	Points allowed	78.5 #279
1.12 #260	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #270
52.5 #240	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #150
34.1 #190	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #271
16.5 #188	Turnovers forced	14.0 #335
68.8 #211	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #239
6.6 #167	Steals per game	6.0 #240
3.3 #173	Blocks per game	3.9 #87

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
Lvs Prairie View59–70
Wvs Jackson St82–57
Wvs Alcorn St92–87
L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky82–87
Lvs Texas A&M91–94
L@ Auburn74–88
Lvs Oklahoma67–83
W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

Texas Southern Tigers at LSU Tigers

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Southern

LSU

LSU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Texas Southern

LSU